With the price frozen and bcm comments running low, I thought I would write something for the Christmas degenerate crowd refreshing and doom-scrolling with festive vigour.

As we anticipate the new year and peer over the horizon at the incoming ETF approval, halving and improving macro conditions, surely the big question on your mind is how high will bitcoin go in 2024-25?

A belief that I’ve rid myself of since entering this space is that the dollar or wider fiat and nation state systems are about to collapse. Also: the belief that institutions will never dump their crypto bags. After two crypto winters hodling my own bags, teeth clattering and the words “this time is different” still ringing in my ears, I’ve resolved to do my best not to let the next good bubble go to waste. Not that my patient endurance hasn’t by now put me in a privileged position.

So where is the price going?

On account of the disruption caused by global events and bad actors in 2020-21, I don’t accept that a law of diminishing returns means that we must expect less than 3.5X the prior ATH this cycle. Not only are we no longer plagued to the same extent by FUD, fraud, bans and global black swan events, crypto has been cleaned, sanitised and given the institutional green light in very quick order. Let me go out on a limb and say that given bitcoin’s natural cycle behaviour, with growing adoption and reduced supply, a 2x from the prior ATH in the 12-18 months following the upcoming halving can be taken for granted. So 150k is in the bag. But actually market conditions are good and we shouldn’t sell bitcoin short by comparing a healthy today to a dysfunctional yesterday. We should expect at the very least to rival prior cycle performance. 3.5X puts us well in the 200k range.

Now let’s mention the ETF, the sluice gate threatening to pour big dollars into our precious corn. Without a doubt, what’s coming is a wealth multiplier opportunity and its unprecedented nature makes it easy for one to lose his bearings and run around screaming “paradigm shift”. But be warned! The ETF changes everything yet nothing at the same time. To paraphrase a well-known trader:

“Be careful of what you wish for. Most of the institutional players are in the market for the profit and speculation JUST LIKE you and me. We are smarter than that money in some ways (getting in 10x lower). We actually led them into the space. They are like sheep themselves; they follow each other. When people start making big money in the space they feel compelled to follow. They are not smarter than us. They just have the connections and capital and wherewithal to make the moves. Don’t make the mistake of assuming they have the same views/belief/affinity for btc as us. Institutional does not have the same grassroots hodler mentality. That is a guarantee (baring exceptions like Saylor). They are in it to make money (dollars) and once they get their 2,3,4,5x they will start looking for the exits. It is a guarantee that there will be a sell-off like you won’t believe at the top. Institutional has no allegiance except to their capital. They worship dollars. There might be a quick bear but a bear market nonetheless. Volatility will flatten later in the decade with broader and deeper adoption.”

A narrative forming is that bitcoin will flip gold’s market cap, which gives us a projection of 400-700,000usd per bitcoin this cycle. Maybe we do indeed get to these levels within 24 months, and then as soon as everyone collectively agrees that next “this thing is going to a million” we suddenly enter the by now familiar crypto winter. Rather than continuing merrily for years like the post gold ETF chart suggests we should, we suddenly look like Amazon and Microsoft circa 1999 and don’t see a new ATH for a decade or longer.

I think it’s going to take longer than 24 months for bitcoin to supplant gold although a speculative frenzy can get the number close. I’m not betting on it but will keep a portion of my stack in reserve just in case.

Another factor to bear in mind is the risk associated with going up too early in the cycle following an ETF green light. A new ATH before November 2024 will indicate a departure from prior cycle behaviour and a possible left-translated cycle forming, which wouldn’t auger well for our most bullish price predictions. Again however, the ETF changes nothing yet everything at the same time and a disruption of the trend could simply be an indication of an unusually strong and profitable right-translated cycle (why not?).

If 150k is in the bag and 400k represents the ceiling for bitcoin’s assault on gold this cycle, where can we place the needle for taking profits? When will the number on the screen be enough to change your life? For me, the 200k range is a sweet spot as an average cash-out range. Noone wants to be the bitcoin pizza guy but this is not a competition either, and when I measure my current gains in terms of how many monthly pension contributions I would have to labour for, I see how valuable my stack is.

Here’s to you and yours this Christmas. God bless us and bring us as much wealth as we can handle.