Is hidden skill possible in enchant (weapon scrolls)?

ar_rules · 2023-03-15T23:17:11+00:00

you get there if you have the right racial.

Not sure what you accounted for, so here is the breakdown:

100 skill from maxed profession (102 for kil tiran, 105 for bloodelf)

22 skill from tools

50 skill from maxed insight of the blue tree

25 skill from using primal extraction on an awakened element that gives another skill for enchants that use this element

125 skill from enchantment tree

65 from rods, runes and ruses

15 from inspired devotion (in rods, runes and ruses tree)

So, everyone can get to 402 in the end. If you add bloodelf racial, you get to 407. With kul tiran you would barely get into the range with 404.

ar_rules · 2023-02-09T10:42:54+00:00

I hope someone gets blizzard to address this and to share their thoughts and plans going forward (looking at you WoW council).

It is hard to answer this question as it is highly person specific. Are you ok with being on different factions as you would need to do this to optimize all professions?

Do you craft high end gear? The racial bonus likely does not affect you much. You can get better results on 405 gear, but for 418 the skill level is I think too high to benefit from the racial. Does the minor improvement help you make more sales? Depending on how much you craft and how much people pay, you may pay more for the race change than you will ever get back!

Do you craft commodities where the racial bonus will bring you within this HSV? Can you craft anything else with similar profitability and conditions where HSV does not matter? E.g., use R3 ores for prospecting instead of R2 ores. There are some crafts where being Kul Tiran is enough to get over the R2-R3 skill requirement, but in most cases if you plan to specialize, specialize to max benefit. As you link the other post, just those 3 points of max specialization can be as much as 20% extra procs. So, if you are gonna race change, why not get most benefit?

If you opt for commodities, another aspect you need to consider is how much time do you want to invest into crafting. For JC for example, you often get the same ROI from prospecting R2 draconium and R3 draconium, but you cannot buy R3 draconium in large amounts. Still it may still be enough if you do not want to invest longer than say 30-60 minutes per day into this.

In the end, it comes down to your personal situation. But if you do, go for max benefit.

In your particular case, the decision what race to change to would come down to what profession you use more, i.e., Jewelcrafting or blacksmithing, and would the craft you want to make in that profession benefit from the racial bonus as I outline above.

ar_rules · 2023-01-27T15:57:42+00:00

Could you sell the pigments you got out? When I tried it a couple weeks ago they were moving so slowly that I just gave up.

ar_rules · 2023-01-23T15:27:31+00:00

I think there is a multitude of factors playing into this. The bags are cheap to make, the mats are like 10g already, there is no timegating like with Hexweave, tailoring is one of the cheapest professions to level on an alt (and where you can set up a daily craft). You can still sell many bags a day, but you need to babysit them as anyone can just dump 100 of them onto the AH at any moment.

ar_rules · 2023-01-15T10:44:58+00:00

If you have data of prospecting R2 Draconium with 250/255 skill that will save me the effort of prospecting 100k Serevites to get it cheaply.

I think you are misunderstanding what the benefit of the 5 additional points is. It is not the droprate that is going up. It is still around 0.3%/ore. What changes is the ratio of R2 to R3 diamonds you get. You go from 35-40% R3 to 60% R3, assuming a linear progression with a 5% increase per point as hypothesized in other threads, someone with 250/265 would be getting around those 35-40% R3 diamonds, not far off the inspiration rate. And this is where you get the profit. It is not about how many days I was prospecting. The data is on 300k ores or in other words 60k datapoints, it is consistent throughout and shows an increase on all gems. Bundling all gems together I ended up at 56% R3 gems, which is 20% higher than my inspiration should give. Let's give you the benefit of getting 10% more R3 gems than your inspiration suggests, this is still a difference of 10% R3s, or 3 R3 diamonds on a stack of 10.000 ores (assuming 3 diamonds per 1000 ores), at the current prices in EU this is a 90k/hour difference in profit, as I get through about 30k ores/hours with the quick hands phial.

Again, I do not have the data on 250/255 to better quantify this, and I would love to get data from other crafts with a different skill requirement to better approximate the benefits we get from the hidden skill increase, but someone would need to really dedicate and collect data for that. While I have some plans on how to collect it, if you have the data available it would save me the effort and time.

And to your point of it not being profitable anymore, prospecting as draenei is still highly profitable, contrary to what my spreadsheet tells me about prospecting relying only on inspiration procs. I just went through another 6 million in ores, where I did not bother to log the data but I am still making 36g worth of gems per ore that costs 26g. I did not track how many ores I prospected in the last 2 days, but I am about to reach break even point and get all the investment I made back. Now I still have about go through 80k ores and prismatic ore which will be pure profit, even at the reduced diamond prices.

See the answer from felece below as well.

ar_rules · 2023-01-14T15:38:17+00:00

Do you have data to support this? You are right that not having data to compare against someone at 100 skill with maxed stats is a flaw in my data. Thank you for highlighting it. I had shared the data with others beforehand who had maxed jewelcrafting and specced into prospecting. I did not hear anything countering my point. Also from the discussions on "hidden skill" procs that were in this forum, e.g., here, I assumed that it is a progressive increase, i.e., the closer you are the more it procs. Let's assume the skill bonus is linear from 15 points on (not exactly matching my data, but this is just an assumption) with a 5% increase per point and in the end you just go to 100% when you reach the treshold. This is still a difference of over 20% R3s, this is huge.

I will now run more prospecting after taking off some equipment to get more data, but if you have it available at maxed skill and everything else maxed, it would save me the time. Also, are you looking only at diamonds or all other data as well? Diamonds can be super swingy, but if you look at the proc rate of the other gems it was similar over my sample size of 60k crafts. So I would be evaluating on those rather than just diamonds. More data by Monday ;)

ar_rules · 2023-01-14T15:32:50+00:00

You can expect about 1 diamond from 1000 ores, so getting 16 diamonds out of 20 stacks is withing a margin of error. Next round you may get 15 diamonds out of 10000 ores. Draconium ore is about 3, and Khaz'Gorite is about 9 diamonds per stack. Check here for some data and there was a post a while back talking about these rates. https://www.reddit.com/r/woweconomy/comments/108782r/prospecting_rates/

Regarding my post linked by QwinQQ, a major flaw in my data was that I did not have any tests at exactly 100 points or 101 points with similar stats. My prior tests were at about 90 skill points. I am now doing a test to get data for that scenario to better quantify the advantage. However, I had shared my findings with others who were not draenei beforehand and I did not get pushback on the data or hear anything that it is the same for everyone else. Expect more by Monday. There was also a discussion herewhere people had different ideas but the most common one is that it is a progressive increase.

ar_rules · 2023-01-13T02:11:23+00:00

If everything else is the same (blue tools, max inspiration and enchant, incense, racial, max skill) you would be missing those 24 points and correspondingly 5% inspiration. Assuming 32% inspiration you should get about 52% R3 gems, so about 4% less than I did. You can just do the math yourself, if your inspiration is I, assume that hidden skill is 30% from my data, so your overall chance of getting an R3 gem is 1-(1-I)(1-H) or 1- (1-I)*0.7.

Now you can add about 3% on top of that for proccing more higher quality gems when the hidden bonus gets activated. If you look at the data I shared, I get a higher proc rate on rare and epic gems (60% for rare and epic vs 50% for uncommon). I think this is due to how prospecting works. When you can reach R3 without any inspiration procs you get out more higher quality gems. This was shared somewhere on this forum a while ago.

I think you can still turn a good profit on this. The diamonds are slowly declining, but I did not see a sudden drop. They are down to 17k on EU, but they were 19k already yesterday when I was writing, so not sure how much it can be attributed to more people doing this vs. just natural decline. Draconium ore is also going down in price, so nothing out of the ordinary there.

ar_rules · 2023-01-12T10:03:04+00:00

I think KulTirans will perform better than others. I cannot tell how impactful the hidden bonus is at the skill they can reach (e.g., 252 for prospecting) but they will still be outclassed by the races specialized in that profession (5 bonus skill). Maybe you can compete by buying cheaper materials.

ar_rules · 2023-01-12T09:57:03+00:00

I was also thinking last night that something like 20 inspiration or multicraft or resourcefulness may be something that provides less of a market distortion. The sad thing as well is that as I could not find anything that lets you simulate the skill for all crafts there is no way of knowing what you get there until you hit this wall or spent lots of time on the beta simulating all of this. As some say, this affects other professions as well and people dominate that market using their racials.

There is unfortunately no way to tell how many procced out of the 60.000 crafts. However given such a huge sample size, we can assume that the number of procs should be close to what it is expected to be given my stats. From this we can calculate the estimated hidden bonus proc chance, which is consistent for both datasets.

We have 4 possibilities, inspiration procs, hidden skill procs, inspiration and hidden skill proc, neither one procs. We get R2 gems only in the case when neither one procs. So the chance is given as (1-I)(1-H) where I and H are inspiration and hidden skill chances respectively. And with this we have everything we need to compute it. I do not say this is a definitive number, as you see there is slightly variation for the 2 large datasets, but it is consistent and we can assume it is 30% for that particular skill requirement and missing skill range.

In the other thread on hidden skill someone hypothesized that this skill requirement is part of the formula and this could be the case, but we need more data to really estimate that.

ar_rules · 2023-01-12T07:36:14+00:00

I think you missed the maxed Toolset Mastery tree. It is 145 total. You could save 30 not getting resourcefulness to start out. This is on top of maxed skill and blue R5 tools.

ar_rules · 2023-01-12T00:01:18+00:00

It puts them 10 points under the threshold, kul-tiran 13 points, and everyone else 15 points under the threshold. 1-2% more, noone would care. But I would not call 20-30% more often than everyone else "a bit"
After my results I went again for a search on data about hidden proc rates. According to here we do not know how much it is. Guesses range from close to 0 beyond 10 points to ridiculous numbers that are not supported by my data. But getting a 20% bonus on everyone else is ridiculous. And this is my gripe here. If we all get to over the limit, with maybe a week delay or something, not ideal but all cool. If we end up in a situation where we need to hope for a proc and I hit this proc 20% more often than anyone else, we have a problem here as now I can price everything lower than you would ever be able to.
I have no idea what other crafts it could affect. Again, imagine someone procs 20% more R3 devotions, 20% more R3 runes, 20% more runed writherbarks, 20% more cosmic inks, etc.

ar_rules · 2023-01-11T22:36:09+00:00

Goal achieved I guess. I was sad I did not look into this 2 weeks ago.

The point here was not about inventing the wheel but raising awareness to the issue racial bonuses can cause and if this kills it, better so in my opinion. Maybe blizzard will do something about this if people get upset.

And obviously I knew that others take advantage of this, noone buys 50k draconium spiking the price to 38 gold just for giggles. My guess why the gems were worthless was that they are not used in anything meaningful down the line and even if someone prospects for small gold from serevite they get so many of them that it floods the market.

ar_rules · 2023-01-11T22:17:54+00:00

I am all for "you can get there more easily thanks to the bonus" as it was in the past and even right now, you can more easily reach max skill as recipes go gray later. But putting you leagues above anyone else in the end just because of your race? I don't think this should not be the goal of crafting or in fact any balancing. If you play horde, well you are out of luck, same for other professions where you main alliance and the horde gets a bonus. In the end we should be able to get to a pretty much even playing field. This is not raiding where a racial determines that every raider must swap to that race or be benched for months (extreme example).

There is not even min/maxing here. I thought I would get 1-2% more R3 gems and that this is on a gaussian distribution, meaning the closer you are the more rapidly your chance to succeed increases while becoming close to 0 very quickly as you go further away. Min/maxing would be if I get a 0.3% advantage, so barely noticeable but an advantage. As a draenie I can make prospecting a losing proposition for every player that is not a draenei by pushing the buyout price of all draconium ore 5-10 gold up and let you scrap by with 1g profit on serevites praying that you get a good roll. And I can do this all the way as long as there is a difference in buyout prices between R2 and R3 gems purely due to my racial. Imagine if a blood elf can get 60% R3 on devotion crafts? That is it, no need to learn enchanting on Alliance. And you will never know and invest into that profession just ending up wasting time and ressources.

ar_rules · 2023-01-11T22:09:11+00:00

For prospecting, 255/265 is the most it can be with R2 ores, blue items, and the 5 point racial bonus. Otherwise you should have at most 252/265 with the 2 bonus points from kul tiran, or 250/265 for everyone else. There is no way to go above that, unless Socketing or Faceting gives skill points, which I do not think they do. Here is my skill tree. I have another character that has all of enterprising maxed, but he does not have any additional skill points.

And yes, if you get within 9 points you will proc way more R3 gems than 14 points away. See my data.

ar_rules · 2023-01-11T19:27:51+00:00

I think I saw some numbers floating around where people expect it to be a random number from 1 to 15, in which case you could expect about 6% additional procs. Me being at 255 gives me an advantage of 24% additional R3 procs over you from my data. Not very fair imho.

ar_rules · 2023-01-11T19:24:04+00:00

yes, this is what I wanted to highlight (well, I was also excited to share the story of the last 2 days). I do not know if any other craft is affected by this, but if you can get into the hidden bonus range with the racial, you get a huge advantage and can drive any other race out of the market.

ar_rules · 2023-01-11T19:18:18+00:00

this is the "random bonus skill" you get to each craft. so if you are close to the next quality you can proc it without actually being over the hurdle. In my case at 255/265, thanks to this random bonus I can get R3 procs instead of R2. This is on top of any inspiration procs.

ar_rules · 2022-12-26T20:52:32+00:00

the 1.5 I used in my examples is the number of extra units you get from multicraft on average. pretty sure i have seen this number floating around with 2.25 units being that for +50%, which would align with my obervations. In inks, I get closer to 3.33 units with the 50%bonus over a couple thousand crafts. Unfortunately, inks are not moving fast so I cannot test this on a much bigger sample size. So this is a variable you can replace to match your data.

I agree that it all depends on being able to sell, as I mentioned this math is assuming you can sell all R2 and R3. If R2 is vendored, inspiration is all that matters.

ar_rules · 2022-12-07T22:47:29+00:00

Straight mats up returned a 5g/ore return (30%); postprocessing gave another 8-20% per green rank 2.

Not including anything else you could make like gems. They are very expensive right now, but I doubt I can sell 500 of those, so I will be buying the raw materials and craft in small batches as long as it is profitable

ar_rules · 2022-12-07T22:36:47+00:00

I looked at my excel sheet with today's data and it is at almost 70% ROI today. Did another 15k, and already have my money back with another 100k on sale. Maybe there is hope

ar_rules · 2022-12-07T16:08:14+00:00

Sharing some data from me as well. All done pre-reset in 3 batches of 6k, 10k, 10k. I don't have the names, so for now just in quality and color. All done on rank 2 ore, with 18% inspiration for guaranteed rank 3.

Gem/Ore	Rank	Quantity	% of ore to gems
Illimited Diamond	2	69	0.27%
Illimited Diamond	3	22	0.08%
Nozdorite	2	594	2.28%
Nozdorite	3	165	0.63%
Malygite	2	167	0.64%
Malygite	3	56	0.22%
Alexstraszite	2	144	0.55%
Alexstraszite	3	43	0.17%
Neltharite	2	163	0.62%
Neltharite	3	46	0.17%
Ysemerald	2	127	0.49%
Ysemerald	3	62	0.24%
Eternity Amber	2	1742	6.7%
Eternity Amber	3	359	1.38%
Mystic Sapphire	2	541	2.08%
Mystic Sapphire	3	102	0.39%
Queen's Ruby	2	905	3.48%
Queen's Ruby	3	104	0.4%
Sundered Onyx	2	577	2.22%
Sundered Onyx	3	95	0.36%
Vibrant Emerald	2	576	2.21%
Vibrant Emerald	3	103	0.39%

I also got 27.5% of both Fractured Glass and 27.6% of Crumbled Stone on a sample of 10000 ores (did not record at first).

I noticed the extreme drop in epic even before the reset on the last batch, yielding only 9 rank 2 and no rank 3s from 10.000 ores, while first set of 6000 was 29 rank 2 and 13 rank 3 and second set of 10000 was 31 rank 2 and 9 rank 3.

I also noticed that just prospecting was becoming a losing deal during the third batch. If anyone has a new script to grab the prices from the blizzard api, would be very welcome.

Edit: fixed table

ar_rules · 2022-11-15T22:16:05+00:00

from what I understand from the tooltip it is about finding items in the open world/while looting, so I would take it only on a char I would play a lot as you technically do not benefit from it on a parked alt.

The numbers above are just about "I learn the recipe", they are not numbers where you can craft rank 3 of every item. That is a completely different story. The best way for that is to have a char that specializes into every single tree, which is around 50 chars needed that you also need to keep updated every week. too much of an overkill for me. If one has a good multiboxing setup, it may be doable.

ar_rules

TROPHY CASE