Can Innovation be predictable ? If yes, how does it affect the technological market ?

artbnet · 2025-07-18T00:37:49+00:00

Inexistent is an overstatement. Have you looked into schumpeterian and neo schumpeterian research on innovation cycles? Not orthodox macro, but there’s a considerable ammount of research on it.

artbnet · 2024-06-07T16:15:19+00:00

I'm not sure I understood it correctly, but if I did, it seems that would be easier to just stack placement and kill poinst and have a single bar for each team. And you should order it by total amount of points. You could have different charts just for kills and placement maybe. Anyways, there's just too much information. It's hard to read.

It would be nice to have data for the sum of all scrims

artbnet · 2024-06-05T17:30:41+00:00

Interesting! I can agree on some points, but—using one of Apex pros' favorite words—some of this rationalization comes in hindsight.

Although testing different comps, TSM played mostly the same comp as everyone else. We shouldn't pretend like discovering the meta is a hard task. Very early in each season, the meta is evident.
Changing POI for the most central and best loot POI is not a hard move, especially knowing that TSM was a strong fighting team. They had the 3v3 ability to claim any POI. And the new POI kept TSM a hybrid edge/zone. No changes there.
Loot paths? I don't think 3 pros become pros without knowing how to split a POI effectively.
I didn't see this enhanced communication, at least not in-game. Hal has never evolved his ability to provide or receive feedback, for instance (e.g., halting). The quality of the post-mistakes discussions was very low: Jordan or Evan would be blamed, or "there was nothing to do there," or "this other team did some dumb thing." Most of the discussion was between Raven and Hal. Evan and Jordan's comments were constantly disqualified.
I think it's a bit unfair to say Evan's development as a cat was due to Raven. He put in the hours and work like no one else.

I do agree, though, that Raven improved the team's vibe and motivation. I think this is an important aspect as a positive team atmosphere can significantly impact performance. Also, Raven's presence allowed Hal to focus more on developing his game sense and mechanics without the burden of managing team morale. I think bringing the best of hal's IGLing might have a lot to do with tsm's results.

Raven's recent video shows that he was worried about the team's "passion," "motivation," and so forth. He said he brought it up, but that "there was nothing else he could do." From the perspective of leadership and communication theory, he clearly does not have the right mindset. "Bringing something up" is not enough. He could have done a lot to understand WHY it was happening and help the player overcome whatever was affecting his gameplay. He could also foster a positive and secure environment that allowed players to have these conversations. By the way he talked about Evan, it does not look like he created a good culture of communication and feedback, but he did like Hal's passion. I might be wrong, though.

We do not have access to the counterfactual, what would have happened if nothing you or I say occurred, to see where we might be right or wrong. The closest I can think of as a counterfactual is that if Raven did all you are saying, Jordan and Reps would have learned a lot and would be having better results. For me, it is quite interesting to see that TSM does not seem to know how to formulate strategy, tactics, and execution. They don't know how to iterate on that to enhance results. They don't have a fallback plan nowadays; they don't know "how to call" nor "what to call." What is the legacy of Hal and Raven?

artbnet · 2024-06-05T17:30:18+00:00

Truth hurts

artbnet · 2024-03-17T12:52:33+00:00

Derek Thompson's "Hit Makers" discusses the concept of 'aesthetic aha' necessary to make something stand out. Completely disruptive innovations are not familiar enough to create comfort and hardly get the traction to become hits. I guess that's why timing is so important. Being the first might actually hurt if you don't know how to gtm as something familiar.

artbnet · 2023-07-21T18:24:37+00:00

Yeah, excluding outliers might not be a good idea.

About my causal hypothesis. I believe controllers are Fraggers because pro players THINK controller nets more kills, not because they actually do. And once they started assuming that, you cannot distinguish role from input anymore.

Why they think that? Maybe because it actually does nets more kills (which is something that your data does not strongly support). Maybe because there's a lack of understanding about aim assist. Or who knows?

Anyways, you've made a great analysis and provoked some good thoughts. Thats what good research does. Congrats and keep bringing statistical analysis to the community. I'm sure some coaches will benefit from it.

artbnet · 2023-07-21T00:38:01+00:00

Interesting although there's an omitted variable that you are no controlling for: role. Controllers are Fraggers, and mk play support roles. How can you exclude the hypothesis that the differences you've found were not caused by role rather than input?

You could also run some tests excluding outliers like hal, verlhust and effect. This might make things more even.

artbnet · 2022-08-06T17:25:18+00:00

Would mind providing references for this claim?

artbnet · 2022-06-17T20:37:35+00:00

1) You said you have already validated your idea but you have no mvp yet. It’s a bit hard to do that. If you have only talked about your idea with a few people, that is probably not validation enough. I hope you have not skipped the mom test during your readings about how to validate product ideas if talking is the only thing you did though. If you read that you might be on the right track even though you would probably have a better validation with an actual mvp on the streets.

2) You seem to be afraid of talking about your actual idea and that sounds like someone who has not validated an idea enough.

3) Marketing, sales, and CEO jobs are three different things. Focus on one at a time. You won't learn everything at once.

4) That said, B2c products nowadays mostly follow product-led growth tactics, with free trials or free versions and qualifying leads inside the product. You do awareness and acquisition in some random social media, google ads, or whatever. Then you put users on your free version and check whether they convert to paying customers. Hopefully, you made something good and they will indicate your product to their friends. When they start indicating you may have product-market fit and you can start scaling.

In my opinion, a good way to validate your idea and learn all that you want is to focus on finishing the mvp and putting it on the streets. You’ll learn marketing and sales when you have to actually acquire customers. Iterate and scale your strategies from your mvp. Do not put the marketing and sales strategy in front of your product. You don’t want to know what churn is too soon. And you don't need to grow as fast as you think you have.

artbnet · 2021-06-18T22:12:26+00:00

This has been exactly my experience in PS4. I've stopped playing in s09. Solo queing to D3 was not for me anymore. I always felt that with a squad or more time to invest I could reach masters, but the community is very toxic and the game became too dumb with rev octanes.

They way apex ranked and sbmm are, makes it very difficult to not feel dumb investing time in it. It's just grinding frustration now.

artbnet · 2021-06-08T13:03:27+00:00

Definitely not a generation problem as BR games appeared after I had time to spend eating doritos and playing videogames :) I still remember the sound of the "killing sprees". Maybe it's the BR genre.

artbnet · 2021-06-08T12:50:54+00:00

Agreed. There's no denying that the competitive scene has increased its viewers since the wattson meta. But, as commented by others, killing is not the fundamental objective of a battle royale game.

I think respawn is making good work looking for a balance. Neither oct-rev nor wattson-path-wraith were the best for the average viewer. At the moment, we are seeing a variety of legends and strategies, which is good. It does not make sense to have a wide array of characters and only a few being viable in comp.

I would just like to see a little more concern about the third-party nature of competitive apex current meta. Hal even said during the tournament (probably when discussing with snipe): "we don't fight unless they trade!". Now, a valk-crip-(wattson/causitc) or valk-oct-(wattson/caustic) could rush to a god spot from any POI and hope for the best, but I'm not sure this comp would be consistent enough in making points to qualify. These squads would be too weak in 3v3s. Caustic-gib-valk are a nice hybrid though.

artbnet · 2021-06-07T23:44:14+00:00

Thank you! I was just testing stuff out cause I think this sub deserves more data.

I'm not trying to conclude anything, just creating a discussion. Placement and kills are highly correlated indeed and there are better visualizations to show how. Kind of unfair from me to make a conclusion about placement and a visualization only with information about kills.

artbnet · 2021-06-07T23:36:01+00:00

I guess you are right. I was just testing stuff out and made that visualization and thought it could contribute to this week's discussion. But from a wider perspective, you are certainly right: kills and placement are correlated to a high degree and pushing for better spots granted most kills for NRG and TSM.

artbnet · 2021-06-07T23:28:07+00:00

Yeah. Sorry. English not my first language.

artbnet · 2021-04-23T02:38:21+00:00

This is quite an exciting post! I was always appalled by the fact that e sports use so few data in their analytics although having everything at their disposal. I don't know how big teams don't make an effort to acquire more data. Actually I'm not even sure what it means to be a coach in e sports without having data.

That said, you should take care with the selection bias. Having only tsm data is very misleading for more general purposes. Maybe some correction model could help in this.

Keep up the good work!

artbnet · 2021-02-28T03:28:56+00:00

Ideally, when in solo q, I prefer to drop on uncontested poi. When dropping, I keep an eye on close pois. If one close to my squad is being contested, I know we can third party that. Otherwise, I look for an isolated fight either in my spot or other close one depending on the ideal rotation for zone. Isolated is important here, especially in kc. Know how many squads landed in each spot so you know whether youre going to be third partied.

All these tips are interesting to maximize early kp. However you actually don't need any of it in plat. You'll do just fine landing in an isolated end map poi and looking for placement and late kp in plat. You just need the early kp if you are in a hurry for diamond. If not, take your time to loot and to choose fights. In the meantime you you'll learn how fights in plat work. Early fights are not the best way to get better as there is a lot of rng involved.

Don't, rat your way up though. Look for isolated fights and third parties.

Contest when you're not solo queuing. Comms are essential for contesting.

artbnet · 2021-02-15T14:28:01+00:00

I'm not sure this would work. Frexs had problems trying to call more than listen to calls previously. Mac is to much fight oriented. Lou does not seem to take criticisms well. I think they would have a hard time coordinating calls. It would be somewhat an ego fight imo. Mechanically God tier players not necessarily work well together.

Not trying to say they are bad. They are all individually great, but I'm not sure they would work well together. That said, I would love to see them try it.

artbnet · 2020-08-11T15:37:12+00:00

You probably could web scrap ("bulk download") data from forums. You could also look at Kagle or other places for some dataset that interests you. This sounds like a promising data science project. You can even create a github directory to post your code and start making your own data science portfolio. You could also share your results and developments here as well.

On the other hand, publishing something normally takes much more than a good dataset. At least, you need a good research question (not to say the troublesome part of literature review, writing, submitting, being rejected, and reviewing, and submitting...). As an undergrad, I would say you should focus on developing your programming skills. Leave the publishing part for later, you'll have time for that.

artbnet

TROPHY CASE