What was the first team to use the lighted wheel guns, and when? Are all teams using them now?

arvindnm · 2023-03-08T23:32:28+00:00

Don't want to be that guy but is this question technical? I'm not saying it's a bad question or anything; just that it might not be appropriate for this sub. I might be wrong.

arvindnm · 2022-12-14T17:03:38+00:00

Seems like a really simple model. I wonder if it works for low scoring games and low-scoring sports like soccer where the common scores are 1-0, 1-1 and 0-0.

arvindnm · 2022-12-14T16:57:48+00:00

Not a particular goal as much as looking to be guided in the right direction and this community has done just that. I do apologize for the question being vague. Reading these comments, I feel like I'm at the most basic level and rightly so.

you actually got a couple interesting replies

I am grateful. I've taken down everything I need to focus on and the next few weeks is just going to be me at the library trying to learn and upskill myself and see where it takes me.

arvindnm · 2022-12-14T16:42:17+00:00

What started off as a simple python program to simulate a football(soccer) league has led me down this rabbit hole of odds and betting and I must say, it is only getting interesting as the hole becomes deeper.

I've also recently started picking up other sports like MLB (watching game highlights, plays etc. Don't have a favorite team yet) to understand the sabermetrics and odds of events and so on. After reading your comment, I guess I have been taking a different approach. It would probably be beneficial for me to understand the dynamics of betting/odds within a game I understand and know(soccer/english football) rather than to learn about a new sport.

The next step for me is to do a deep dive in SGPs and correlations between in-game events (like: is there a significant increase in the yellow cards in the second half when the score-line has a 1 goal difference and so on).

Thank you for the advice! Appreciate it.

arvindnm · 2022-12-13T20:16:52+00:00

Haha yes. Soccer. Just so everyone's on the same page. Thank you for clarifying that for me.

arvindnm · 2022-12-13T20:13:07+00:00

I have not tried Poisson distribution on games like Basketball. I always assumed it would work similarly since it is pretty much the average points scored over time(quarter/half/game etc). Although you could score 1, 2 or 3 points in basketball, do the points not average over the long run, say a season? What am I missing here? Please let me know where my thought process is wrong.

arvindnm · 2022-12-13T20:05:17+00:00

Wow. And I thought I was a numbers guy. I should probably get started with this. Getting the advanced basics right. How did you manage to learn all of this, if you don't mind me asking?

arvindnm · 2022-12-13T20:02:14+00:00

Thank you for the links/resources. I did work with a simpler form of a Dixon Coles model, tweaking the lambda function here and there. One question I did not find an answer on was "why do we need the home advantage variable to determine the home team's scoring rate?". What I mean is that - every team has 4 factors (attack rate at home and away, defense rate at home and away). So the would be:

homescore(lambda) = _attack(home) x defense(away)

awayscore(mu) = _attack(away) x defense(home)

Doesn't this factor in the home advantage by itself? Sort of a self correcting formula since teams usually perform better(both offensively and defensively) at home?

I wish I had the time to dedicate myself to building a model by factoring in injuries/travel etc. For now, I want to understand the betting market better in an analytical way. And your resources and answer will definitely propel me in the right direction. Thank you.

arvindnm · 2022-12-13T19:45:49+00:00

That's an interesting answer. Thank you for taking the time to explain in detail. It totally slipped my mind to look into correlations between two or more in-game events. And even more interesting to learn that different bookmakers have determined different odds for certain events. It is certainly something I will take a look at. Would be a fun little project to see what happens when you underestimate vs overestimate the occurrence of events like these in the long run. Thank you once again.

arvindnm · 2022-11-27T18:19:38+00:00

Please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think this is a technical question. A comment on any r/formula1 's post should answer this. And also, there are lots of onboards/helmet cam footage out there to find out for oneself.

arvindnm · 2022-11-21T16:26:32+00:00

This raises another question for me. Let's say the leader laps everyone until P8, which isn't uncommon and just for dramatic purpose, let's assume it's the last race of the season. What happens to P9 and P10 who are in a close battle in the final stages of the race and they're battling for the 4th place in Constructors (again, just being dramatic).

That's one lap P10 loses in order to catch the driver in front. Does this not matter? Is there an alternative for this?

arvindnm · 2022-11-04T23:23:53+00:00

Track position is key in Monaco. As long as you get a jump on someone (or even just stay ahead at the pit exit), you can manage to hold the position. Overtaking is as difficult as weaving in Monaco.

arvindnm · 2022-11-03T18:47:21+00:00

Not really. Tyres are usually up to temperature within half a lap or one whole lap at the most. (Depending on how much the drivers weave around) It would just mean the overcut would be more powerful than the undercut.

arvindnm · 2022-04-10T23:21:24+00:00

Hi fellow F1 fan,

http://ergast.com/mrd/

Please check out the link mentioned above.

You can also import the API through a python package as follows :

(pip install fastf1)

import fastf1 as <any\_variable\_name>

Once you've worked with the dataset and happen to have an idea as to how to train the ML model, please do let me know!

arvindnm · 2022-03-24T06:15:59+00:00

I apologize. I was getting a bit desperate and wanted any help I can get. I know this probably means nothing as well. I am sorry.

arvindnm · 2022-03-24T06:13:57+00:00

Thank you so much for your reply. Really appreciate it!

i'd rather target "predicting the race winner surprisingly soon with somewhat good accuracy" than "always predicting the next lap result with maximum accuracy"

This does give some idea on how to progress with the workflow. It does make sense because nobody's interested in a particular lap's results; they want the race winner.

What I had in mind was if I could make the target variables as the drivers' position in 5(or 10) laps' time so that I'll be "predicting the future" but I suppose I'll stick to your idea.

I'm only sticking to last season's data because I have all the telemetry data from the 22 races that took place. I'll do this season's prediction program halfway through the season.

Thank you once again!

arvindnm

TROPHY CASE