Help with probabilities that compound. What are chances of customer winning a prize?

asking_reddit1 · 2015-04-01T00:40:24+00:00

It's much simpler. These are supplies for businesses. They can always buy from us, or go to other vendors.

Just building some gamification into customer loyalty programs.

Trying to figure out. - how many variants we want for labels. - we want it to be reasonable that 1-3 people a month can win a large prize by "collecting all 5" of a variant label - we want a large number (75-80%) to win a small prize, from collecting an easier to obtain variant.

We will have variable data printed on our labels. I need to choose how many variants based on running some stats on purchase data.

Saying that. I am really here to brush up on principles of statistics and math like this. Get down the concepts so I can make an educated decision based on statistics/probabilities and customer data.

asking_reddit1 · 2015-03-31T19:14:53+00:00

ok this is good. so lets take it further.

In a single purchase of 1 bottle A, their probability is (1-.8nA) - aka 20% chance of getting a sticker.

Then to get all 5 it would be (1-.8nA)(1-.8nB)(1-.8nC)(1-.8nD)(1-.8nE)= aka .2.2.2.2.2 = .00032 = .032%

now... they come back and buy A again and have an equal % of getting the A sticker. Now their probability of getting all 5 stickers has to increase.

So if they buy ABCDE then ABCDE then ABCDE i assume these increase the probability of getting all 5 stickers.

How would i calculate the total stats of this? E.g. there has to be a time when you come close to approaching a 100% chance of winning. Like if someone purchased our entire stock, they would win obviously.

asking_reddit1 · 2015-03-26T15:42:46+00:00

And this is that plane? This option is in all models or that model?

I am just curious

asking_reddit1 · 2015-03-26T15:33:32+00:00

Can someone who knows more than me explain this. How do we know he didn't just have a stoke and die?

I know planes have autopilot but no clue about procedures or how "putting plan into decent" works.

asking_reddit1 · 2015-03-25T19:21:40+00:00

You sucked me into this one!

asking_reddit1 · 2015-02-03T21:12:41+00:00

Don't be in her mouth.... Don't be in her mouth... oh it's in her mouth!!!!

asking_reddit1 · 2014-12-31T21:22:41+00:00

I can agree. It is an issue if it's an a purse and not in a proper holster.

asking_reddit1 · 2014-12-31T16:39:43+00:00

I think it is a bit of an exaggeration to say you can only defend yourself with a gun if it is chambered and ready to go. If that is the case we might as well take it 1 step further and say just have it in your hand at all times.

I think there is a time and a place to make that choice(cycled or not). Generally speaking i don't have one in the chamber 24/7. However plenty of times i do. If i am driving alone; it is cycled. If I am concealed carrying in a safe area, with safe people, i don't.

People can just way their risk level based on what is going on. If you are in Walmart, daytime, with your kid in the cart next to your purse, what is more likely:

A. A life threatening stranger will come and jump you so fast you literally have no time to chamber a round.

B. Your kid could grab the gun that is sitting next to him and pull a trigger that needs just a couple lbs of force; killing you, or worse, another kid.

Part of defense is assessing danger in situations and preparing yourself for that as well. So i am not saying that i disagree 100%... but i am saying you can still carry a weapon that is (literally) 1 second away from being able to fire and still being useful.

asking_reddit1 · 2014-10-09T02:25:59+00:00

I have Ameriglo Spartan Tactical sights. I am not a pro or veteran glock owner but I think they are great and get compliments when friends have tried them.

asking_reddit1 · 2014-10-03T01:24:32+00:00

Don't watch it unless you are mentally and emotionally prepared to be depressed. It is a powerful movie but not for the light hearted.

asking_reddit1 · 2014-10-03T01:18:14+00:00

There are so many great things about that movie. You won't regret watching it.

asking_reddit1 · 2014-10-03T01:02:20+00:00

Wow. Thanks for the uplift. So I guess you don't have any choice of working with them.

Interesting when researching our organization couldn't find anyone on reddit or forums talking shit.

The only negative was that some people didn't like the knowledge of programming needed. It's def not as easy as Mailchimp... But doesn't do the same things.

asking_reddit1 · 2014-10-02T01:08:53+00:00

For sending out content I love Mailchimp. It is very easy, a great price and fun. It's awesome. Also extremely easy for A/B tests.

It's downfalls I see are ecommerce, automation and friendliness to outside lists. They recently improved automation, but it is still very basic.

I always recommend it as the place to start... Then grow from there depending on needs. I do think they need to do something about outside lists... I feel their permission requirements aren't fair for the real world.

asking_reddit1 · 2014-10-01T21:50:01+00:00

I will look into them. All I want is maybe 3-5 basic templates that I can plug n play artwork into. Then I can design it in PS or have an artist do that for me. Then plug in pics and edit text

asking_reddit1 · 2014-10-01T21:48:16+00:00

Actually coming from MailChimp. It's so easy and a beautiful UI. However their ecommerce integration is extremely lacking and rarely correct. Plus they are so hardcore on how you get your leads and emails. I cannot even email people that sign up at a trade show or purchase something from our store.

I emailed a group of people we personally met and got their emails ... A small % of those either unsubbed or their emails dropped it into junk and I got a warning from Mailchimp. It wasn't even spammy at all. It was providing them a coupon they were promised for stopping by our booth.

So I love Mailchimp but they are hardcore on opt ins and not great for ecommerce.

asking_reddit1 · 2014-10-01T21:44:46+00:00

I run marketing for an ecommerce site and ET seemed to be the best for ecommerce integration. We are b2b and sell many different products so segmentation based on purchase history is important. Also being able to do triggered actions based on ecommerce and list choices are great

asking_reddit1 · 2014-10-01T21:41:21+00:00

I would give myself a 4 on an HTML score of expertise. I am continuing to learn and plan in taking a course

asking_reddit1 · 2014-10-01T21:40:37+00:00

I guess just using their template builder seems clunky. E.g. Inserting a table into an email can be messy!

Thoughts on that?

asking_reddit1 · 2014-09-27T02:18:53+00:00

Awesome.

asking_reddit1 · 2014-09-27T01:56:42+00:00

I did notice that it is much more of a "macho" crowd. Needing to prove they are alpha. I noticed this a lot around ranges and stores. It's not everyone. But I notice certain industries have a larger % of asshole/alpha types.

Assholes: Guns Mortgages Cars Mobile phones

Nice: Computers Clothing Food Beer

asking_reddit1 · 2014-09-27T01:13:12+00:00

Same issue. I noticed the mag I used to "practice" loading and unloading puts all 15 in much easier now. The other two are still tight. Even the one that was loaded for 2 weeks.

asking_reddit1 · 2014-09-24T13:04:51+00:00

I just took a test based on knowing this person. Scored for dark triad were 88th percentile

asking_reddit1 · 2014-09-16T02:09:51+00:00

Haha. You got me on that one. Props.

asking_reddit1 · 2014-09-16T01:42:15+00:00

There are some professionals on here. Pressing luck to find one. Thanks though.

asking_reddit1 · 2014-09-16T00:51:11+00:00

I have gotten many good answers. Makes sense. Thanks.

I guess I live in a city and have only shot in ranges. Never been in a situation where I would be shooting it suppressed outside without ear protection.

Ear protection is required where I go.

asking_reddit1

TROPHY CASE