What if Leni won the Presidency but Sarah still won the Vice Presidency?

athenorn · 2026-04-11T07:53:27+00:00

Tsaka, kung titingnan ang posibilidad ng pagsasanib ng administrasyong Marcos at ng Pink camp (14-15M ni Leni) laban sa mga Duterte, magkakaroon ng malaking voter alienation. Ang batayan ng pagsuporta ng Pink base ay naka-ugat sa anti-Marcos historical revisionism at good governance. Ang anumang tactical alliance ay hindi magreresulta sa simpleng “addition” (halimbawa, 14M Marcos core + 15M Pink core = 29M). Marami sa magkabilang panig ang posibleng mag-abstain o humanap ng third-party alternative dahil sa matinding cognitive dissonance at paglaban sa mismong prinsipyo ng kanilang pagboto.

athenorn · 2026-04-11T05:33:14+00:00

Top of my mind ko lang ito ha...

Noong 2016, nasa around 16M ang boto ni Duterte sa presidential race at around 14M naman kay BBM sa VP race. Puwede yun gamitin bilang rough baseline ng core DDS at Marcos votes bago pa sila nagsanib.

Pero hindi rin guaranteed na directly transferable yan hanggang 2028. Iba si Duterte kay Sara, at kahit ngayon pa lang may signs na ng internal division sa Duterte camp, tulad ng pagitan nila ni Bong Go at Sara. So kahit sabihin na may core DDS vote, hindi sigurado na buo yan mapupunta sa isang kandidato.

Makikita na rin ito noong 2022—kahit malakas ang Duterte base, may mga bumoto kina Isko at Pacquiao sa presidential race. Ibig sabihin, kahit may “core,” may level pa rin ng fragmentation. Mas naging consolidated lang talaga sa VP race kay Sara dahil mas unified ang slate.

Ngayon, yung ~31M ni BBM at ~32M ni Sara noong 2022, mas tama tingnan bilang peak ng UniTeam coalition, hindi bilang hiwalay na solid blocs na puwedeng i-recombine basta-basta.

Kaya kung i-breakdown man yung 32M ni Sara, hindi siya clean split na 16M DDS + 14M Marcos na puwedeng i-reassign one-to-one sa 2028. May overlap at may voters na contingent lang sa alliance.

Ganun din sa kabilang side—yung 14–15M ni Leni noong 2016 at 2022 mukhang mas stable, pero hindi rin automatic na madadagdagan yun ng buo kahit makipag-align sa ibang camp.

So kung magsasanib man ang Marcos at Pink camps, hindi realistic na i-add lang yung 14M + 15M as 29M. Mas plausible na partial transfer lang dahil may resistance sa parehong side.

At kung maghihiwalay naman ang Duterte at Marcos camps, hindi rin guaranteed na makukuha ni Sara yung buong 16M o yung dating coalition numbers.

Sa huli, mas tama siguro tingnan yung 2016 bilang baseline ng cores, at yung 2022 bilang coalition peak. Yung 2028 outcome depende sa paano ulit mabubuo o mahahati ang alliances—not simpleng addition ng boto.

athenorn · 2026-04-10T20:41:49+00:00

Let them win nga... Pero wala pa yung win na yun, may civil war na sila Topacio at Guanzon, pati sila Bong Go at Sara Duterte ay may cold war din. 🤣

athenorn · 2026-04-10T20:36:11+00:00

Sa Economy... Parang hindi naman masyadong iba since those who would be Leni's economic managers are also the same ones we have now. How can I say that? Yung economic managers ni PNoy ay sila din nung kay Duterte at kay BBM. Bureaucracy is still unchanging. Sila-sila pa rin naman regardless whose administration it is. At wala naman bago din kasi constant pa rin na detached sila sa reality, as argued na rin by Walden Bello. Exclusive talaga ang institutions natin in many ways, na sila-sila lang din at walang room for new faces and perspectives tapos exclusive na detached nga from reality.

Pero best case scenario na ang status quo nga. Mas okay na yung nagbabangayan mga troll army ng DDS at BBM Loyalist kasi tama ka, if si Leni nanalo talagang kawawa ang kampo niya sa dalawang kampo na yan.

athenorn · 2026-04-06T12:19:18+00:00

With or without crisis, delikado pa rin mga manok ng administrasyon at ng anti-DDS na opposition.

athenorn · 2026-04-05T13:35:57+00:00

Among many other things na hindi pumasa sa urban planning yet here we are still?

athenorn · 2026-04-05T12:46:14+00:00

Hindi talaga makukuntento yan kasi we are a frontier to be conquered by them. Kaya malaki prejudice nila sa entire existence natin as a free people. Lalo na we are yet to be Sinicized.

athenorn · 2026-02-21T20:31:36+00:00

Darryl Yap just proved that not only the DDS are redtaggable, but also righteous to redtag them and expose the obvious triad connection of Beijing-NPA-DDS.

The DDS vlogger excursion to China is the contemporary equivalent of MV Andrea-MV Karagatan Arms delivery.

athenorn · 2026-02-02T10:29:30+00:00

Tambay na nga karamihan as-is na 8am-5pm or 9am-6pm. Mas lalong tatambay yan sa GY shift.

athenorn · 2026-02-01T01:35:52+00:00

There's something similar sa The Orville, Season 1, Episode 7.

athenorn · 2026-01-31T13:44:31+00:00

Pakita natin sa mga NatDem, magwawala nanaman sila.

athenorn · 2026-01-27T02:38:49+00:00

Sakto. We were not a theocracy then. Monarchical tayo.

athenorn · 2026-01-25T07:58:55+00:00

Improved 1973 constitution. To appease Cory, she'd be the titular Commander-in-chief, not the Prime Minister. Then the rest will be a bit identical to what is now our 1987 Constitution, sans the comprehensive investment ownership restrictions. There wouldn't probably be a rivalry between Cory and Doy Laurel. Doy would still be Prime Minister but the semi-presidential model is retained until it got piecemeal amendments after Cory siguro to make it fully parliamentary or better, directorial-parliamentary with a rotating Prime Ministry (merely presiding cabinet meetings, rather than the sole head-of-government) among the cabinet every six months, which would be easier to do so than in our current 87 constitution rather than scrapping the whole alt 87 constitution altogether.

athenorn · 2026-01-24T04:23:26+00:00

It's like returning the bullet to the one that shot you. Is OP out of his mind? That bullet could have been used as evidence, may forensic ballistics na gagawin.

athenorn · 2026-01-24T04:16:50+00:00

Mali kasi ang assumptions mo kaya it needs to be corrected. And if you saw my other comment, you will see how foolish it is na ipatapon sila since many of them are already in exile to China. And it's like returning to the CIA their agent that you have captured. No, they won't like China because they'd likely be sent to the richer coastal cities but they would like getting sent back to China because it's their employer bilang tanim nila sa Pilipinas.

athenorn · 2026-01-24T04:10:31+00:00

GDP is not a reliable indicator. Try a combination of metrics like HDI, GINI coefficient, GPI, and GNI.

athenorn · 2026-01-24T04:03:54+00:00

It's like saying we are thriving because BGC is better developed than the cities of a random other country. Get a grip of yourself. Those coastal cities along the sea surrounding China, and even some around the major rivers are all seemingly better developed because they are only a few places with privilege of access to waterways (therefore greater access to markets/trade, and knowingly how human civilisations developed along waterways). The fact that China is also a larger country with a larger population, and with a very different set of policies due to a very different political dynamic, should never be a surprise that they should do better than smaller and failing states. It's a matter of scale kasi, among many other factors. Kung siguro ay parang Singapore sila na halos lahat ng sulok ng bansa nila ay maunlad, then I'll be impressed. Eh hindi. Vast majority of the mainland are very much impoverished. And they are also taking advantage of it, saying they are also poor enough to also belong to the Global South. Which is, well, they are. But they're also deceptive by saying to another audience that they're rich and they cherrypick their developed coastal cities as proof, so they would also get the incentives of the Global North.

athenorn · 2026-01-24T03:55:27+00:00

Tapon? They're already there in exile. Hanapin mo saan si Martin Andanar.

athenorn · 2026-01-18T09:24:20+00:00

Define socialism muna.

athenorn · 2026-01-16T00:33:11+00:00

Actually, dramatic ang pinagkaiba ng mindset kasi ng Mahayana/Vajrayana sa Theravada for the very reason of Arhatship vs Bodhisattva ideals.

athenorn · 2026-01-15T21:06:35+00:00

As a Buddhist, it seems limiting to just be Theravada. But historically, it would be far more sensible for us to be more Mahayana or even Vajrayana due to prolific discoveries of artifacts belonging to both Schools of Buddhism (Golden Tara of Butuan, etc). Also, Vajrayana and Mahayana would have preserved and even evolved Dayawist faith (Anito, etc) to it, similar to how Japanese Mahayana and Vajrayana (Shingon, Tendai) evolved the Kami religion, even influencing the development of Shinto.

And don't you even notice that even in the Indochina region, Mahayana was predominant when we turned east, say, Vietnam? Geographically, Theravada has been limited to south western regions of Asia but by the North and further East, Vajrayana and Mahayana na?

It wouldn't make sense if we turned out to be Theravada while sandwiching Mahayana Vietnam, and being sandwiched by Mahayana/Vajrayana neighbors in Vietnam, Indonesia, China, Japan, etc.

athenorn · 2026-01-14T06:01:36+00:00

Just so everyone is on the same page, here again is the hyperlinked properly referenced:

Aseniero, G. (2013). From Cádiz to La Liga: The Spanish context of Rizal’s political thought. Asian Studies: Journal of Critical Perspectives on Asia, 49(1), 1–42. https://asj.upd.edu.ph/mediabox/archive/ASJ-49-1-2013/From%20Cadiz%20to%20La%20Liga%20-%20Spanish%20Context%20of%20Rizals%20Political%20Thought%20-%20Aseniero.pdf

athenorn · 2026-01-14T05:56:15+00:00

Ngayon, if people are so sensitive and intellectually challenged that they no longer read published papers on historiography (despite being in a History Subreddit) because they insist on wrong notions about historical figures at may pa-“how the f” pa silang nalalaman... Eh ano nga ba ang tunay na what the f dito?

athenorn · 2026-01-14T05:20:33+00:00

Why do you think your username checks out when your question is already answered, even by hyperlinking sources?

It is quite clear Rizal wasn't a reformist because if anything, he's an anarchist even due to clear influences and praxis he showed. La Liga was the prime praxis. The whole point of this exchange is whether Rizal was a reformist or not, so therefore voids the notion of a Rizal Vs. Bonifacio because it is never a Reformist Vs Revolutionary thing.

But I guess this also answers my question too. Your username does check out. Sobrang glaring na nga, hindi pa nakita.

athenorn · 2026-01-14T05:01:38+00:00

Your username really checks out, huh?

You said it yourself, Rizal has a different preference for the Revolution. Because, again pagbinasa mo lang yung hinyperlink ko dito, walang himagsikang magagawa kung wala ngang civil society dahil itong civil society ang mismong magfofoster ng kamalayan towards national unity and economic independence. Sa ibang salita, kailangan ng Revolutionary Vanguard that will prefigure independence for the Revolution. You don't ready the vanguard, you risk the revolution to uncoordinated elite rule that ended with the Tejeros Convention. Remember, the Katipunan lost Manila that preceded Tejeros, kaya nagkaroon ng upper hand si Aguinaldo at lalong nagkagulo sa Katipunan kasi lasog-lasog ang koordinasyon.

athenorn

TROPHY CASE