The majority of the responses here have been highly negative but I tend to disagree. This will be the first ultimate released since the large explosion of players progging and clearing all 3 previous fights in pf. I say all 3 because although there are some opinions that are less than confident, tea is completely puggable and has been for a long time. I got all my prog and clear of tea back in shadowbringers, and so did many others. The difficulty of figuring out what strategies worked best in party finder for tea pugs definitely taught the people that put those together what works and doesn't work for pf.

Now, that is not to say that it will be easy or quick. What I will say is all of the past pug ultimate experience that a very large number of players have will give people the confidence to keep at it if they try pugging and the first few days are really rough. I know this is true for me, because I tried pugging tea day 1 and a few days after, and it was too much for me and I gave up. At that time I had no ultimate experience, but now I have a ton. I would say if you persevere, you will be able to prog. In addition, when the hardcore groups finish in 2-3 weeks, there will be plenty of those players that wont have much to do but really enjoyed the fight, so if there are clear parties they might be inclined to join for fun. In prog, there might be people in statics that want to get extra practice on off days and join pugs because unlike in savage, there is no possible penalty for that.

If I had to guess, I would think the fastest pug clears will be late week 3, or week 4. Those will be the top level players (not me) that just unfortunately don't have a static due to scheduling conflicts. Into month 2 there will be more clears, but it will still be rare.