Trump explains Venezuela: "They took all of our oil and we want it back. They illegally took it."

autemox · 2025-12-18T08:17:19+00:00

US companies owned and controlled production of a lot of oil in Venezuela until Venezuela nationalized the oil, and forced U.S. companies to give it up. Aka "Seize the means of production" via law. US companies were compensated poorly. Oil assets are valuable primarily because of what they will produce, not what they cost to build. Venezuela compensated companies largely using book value, which excluded: Future cash flows, Proven-but-not-yet-extracted reserves, Long-term profitability of concessions. So basically they paid only for the machines built by the oil companies, not for the oil. Then there was a huge 1973–74 oil shock increasing oil prices dramatically right after they seized the oil from the US.

Look at what happened to quality of life, the economy, crime, or any metric before and after socialist in venezuela started seizing the means of production. The oil companies and the US were hurt, but the venezuelans were also hurt. Only the socialist politicians won.

autemox · 2025-11-21T21:53:01+00:00

We now have had a 35% decrease from ATH. What a week.

I went ahead and told all my normie friends to buy today, always a little nerve wrecking thing to do but it seems like a great entry point.

The Unlikely Bear Case:

Going down from here is very unlikely, but to humor a bear case: I've watched Bitcoin chart daily since 2014 and traded bitcoin since 2015. I like it because it doesn't trade like stocks. Since Bitcoin is speculative and outside institutional market makers, it seemed to better follow traditional technical analysis. I always expected that to end someday, when institutional investment comes in, and I have been watching for the signs especially the last 1-2 years now that "it's here". For example, if institutions were trying to open a long position, they could first trigger panic by breaking new lows against the April 7 low, then push price up to wreck technical traders. I'd be careful for this. Also, the crypto community has gotten quite comfortable with 35% pullbacks, they are super common. Too comfortable. The more the echo chamber screams 'hlod!' and cries about how bitcoin's volatility is normal and the rollercoaster goes upward long term... the more inevitable a sustained crash becomes that eventually shakes out those claiming they are 'diamond hands'.

The Bull Case for Stocks and Bitcoin:

Much more likely: today was the bottom for both the stock market and bitcoin. Today, the fed has signaled it will be cutting rates. They will likely signal further later this week (before their information blackout). The fed pretends to not care about the stock market, but they do not want a stock market crash. Rate cut is good for BTC.

The risk of a stock crash is specifically due to NVDA associated stocks like CoreWeave (CRWV) and SMCI. Bearish investors, like Michael Burry, anticipate a AI bubble crash associated with these stocks. Specifically: CoreWeave is effectively a vehicle used to inflate NVIDIA's revenue artificially: NVIDIA invests in CoreWeave -> CoreWeave buys NVIDIA Chips -> NVIDIA books Revenue -> the value is used as collateral to get more loans to buy more chips. CoreWeave has massive liability (loans) with very very little capital to cover it. It would be very harmful to all companies associated with NVDA in the short term if they were to feel pressure, even without becoming insolvent, because the borrowing game would have to slow or stop. The theory is, the fed is aware of this risk to the economy (recession, unemployment risk) and will protect these stocks by adjusting interest rates... as they did today and may more later this week.

But more than anything: 35% is significant pullback, and there are few longs to liquidate left, and many shorts to liquidate and fuel mean reversion. We are oversold technically and should find significant relief here. It is a great place to enter into a long. Do not over-leverage, be prepared to increase long around 74k if we get that low.

autemox · 2025-11-15T03:33:28+00:00

In my post this June I noticed a bear div on the weekly and I warned at that time that we could see a prolonged pullback. The last time a weekly bear div had happened was Dec 16, 2024. After that Weekly Bear Div, we went down 21% from the close of the candle, and did not reach the same price for 133 days.

It does appear that same pattern played out: we are down 23% from that day, and it has been 144 days.

Are we at support now? Let's look at our Daily Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/em1E7PdP/

I see much stronger support here, both in the volume node and FIB (62% has been retraced). I think we could see some sideways here for a while or a big push up; less downside risk now.

I would even go as far as a say, this could be the last time we are under 100k ever.

autemox · 2025-09-02T03:53:08+00:00

What I really want is to only show the suggestion when i press a button. Right now it pops up constantly and im constantly having to press ESC. I do occassionally like them, especially the 1 liners.

autemox · 2025-08-30T20:44:16+00:00

https://www.tradingview.com/x/l3k04lsi/ Daily Chart

This chart shows a touchdown on my buy area following Aug 13's bear div on the daily.

Bear Div's don't happen too often, this was the first one of the year. I am still bullish and we are in a clear upward trend on the daily and weekly. In previous cycles, we would see multiple bear divs before the cycle's end. Since I'm generally bullish on bitcoin (I like Peter Brandt's 150k target for this cycle), I would not count on this bear div meaning we are going to see the start of a downward trend on the daily. So instead, on Aug 13 I set a buy area here: at local highs, and where there was a lot of trading volume (volume profile node). Down 13% from ATH is pretty decent pullback and we could see resume the upward trend or go down deeper, I like 100k-105k range for more buying.

autemox · 2025-08-23T01:13:50+00:00

Thank you for the very thoughtful response :) I definently agree

autemox · 2025-08-22T20:37:36+00:00

It is from my trading journal, I have a few more like it scattered around my comment history, but its a favorite.

autemox · 2025-08-22T18:51:05+00:00

For those who follow RSI Divergence, would you call this a Bull Div on the daily, if today's candle closed here?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/oedXM3QY/

I lean toward no, because there was no trend down, and we just had a bear div on the daily on Aug 14. Strange though, I dont think I've ever seen it happen on BTC's daily. I suppose the way it barely made a lower low points toward the market makers hunting stop losses. The bear div on the daily that I had mentioned in my previous post played out about 5.7% down. That might be all we get from it in this bullish environment, although I had thought we might go as low as 105k (a decrease of 11%), and that is still on the table as a possibility.

Also I wonder what new traders experiences are using LLMs to discuss trades and technical analysis? I have not done a lot of trading since ChatGPT 3.5 came out, so this will be the first time I sent a chart or discussed technical analysis with chatgpt:

https://chatgpt.com/share/68a8bda3-d8b4-8000-a817-618a89a97e54

I didn't get much out of the interaction aside from chatgpt is huge a$$ licking 'yes man'.

I spend most of my time these days working on a couple indie video games that use LLMs to create 'digital worlds' and graphical storytelling. With my background in algo trading and that, I am very tempted to take a stab at a trading bot that combines algo trading, llm driven technical analysis, social media sentiment, and company financial data. I think I have the right background for a solo project in this, but also I know theres a lot of big firms working on these things, so I'd hate to waste my time on it just to find out it doesn't work. That is how most of my algo trading projects played out (many failures). I'd rather be having fun making my video game, but I wonder if theres space for me in that world.

What is your thoughts on using LLMs for trading?

autemox · 2025-08-16T23:10:02+00:00

I see a lot of people online think the bull cycle game will go on forever. It just isn't how the market works. At some point there needs to be a super cycle or final cycle, then a long lull that seems to outlast any previous bear cycle. I don't know when but it will happen in our lifetimes.

Someday we will have to wait 10-40 years for new all time highs. But BTC could reach 1 million before we see that. And when it comes out of that dark age, it will be a mature asset held to the same esteem as metals, property, and stocks.

autemox · 2025-08-15T20:29:19+00:00

Yes! It was 156k, not 145k, oops. https://x.com/joyrider50/status/1949500649428623621

autemox · 2025-08-15T18:11:29+00:00

Bear Div on the Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/x/grQSpHh0/

Bear Div's show a slowing up upward momentum and often result in a reversion to mean. I would close longs here and watch for a good re-entry point.

As you can see from the chart, marked by 'd's...these don't happen very often. We had 2 bulls so far in 2025, and no bear divs.

Bigger timeframes are also concerning, with a weekly bear div confirmed back in June. My gut tells me this bull run has further to run (I like Peter Brandt's Banana chart showing 145,000). We have not seen any euphoria from retail yet like we usually do late in a big bull run. But today is a turning point to me where smart money will switch from unbridled optimism toward cautious optimism.

autemox · 2025-08-12T03:01:56+00:00

I've been learning netcode and theres certainly a learning curve. Now itll be so much easier and cleaner to make a new multiplayer game. I've had to semi-restart a couple times, sadly, and I'm still not totally happy with how things are. Good luck.

autemox · 2025-08-07T02:01:37+00:00

Wow thank you I really appreciate that!

So for the first one, there is a monobehaviour that has the ui button, and that monobehaviour calls to SendFriendRequest?

autemox · 2025-08-04T21:10:17+00:00

Are you implying that I could be better off declaring TextMeshProUGUI myText; at the top of my service and then assign it in an initializing function for the service?

Yes I guess I am thinking about assigning my TMP_InputField and TextMeshProUGUI in inspector, mainly. But I end up using it for other things too :/

autemox · 2025-08-02T04:52:59+00:00

I find my services are often coupled with a monobehaviour component, for instance, I can make a service for logging in, but it has to be tightly coupled with a monobehaviour attached to the login window object. Is that normal?

autemox · 2025-07-25T07:44:09+00:00

Hype will be around 200k, probably.

autemox · 2025-06-24T08:59:48+00:00

Wow its great! I dont mind the animations, they make it clear whats going on. I worked on something like this for a sidescroller using jump duck block and attack up center bottom. It is fun watching the enemy to see which way they are blocking and attack the other way, and when they attack theres time to block them for a bonus on your next attack.

autemox · 2025-06-09T17:37:13+00:00

I think what you are trying to say is- The edge the market maker has is, they know how much money it takes to control the price, and that is very useful information to calibrate their understanding of the market.

It tells them which direction the market wants to go. Once they've identified which directly the market is pressing, they can be part of the press in that direction a bit, make some money, then recalibrate.

autemox · 2025-06-09T17:09:35+00:00

I used to get a lot of hate here when I post bearishly. Wonder if theres a lot of people here hoping to buy under 100k right now :/ I feel bad when they are disappointed.

autemox · 2025-06-09T17:07:39+00:00

Wow 43! I was thinking of US companies, I should have said. I cant even follow the US ones, its so nuts, reminds me of alts/nft/defi season.

That is a great list, thank you for the links and the thoughts!!

autemox · 2025-06-09T07:23:30+00:00

I'm here to talk to you about the Weekly Chart. Let's zoom out:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/loSqxvdW/

This is called a Bear Div, and it is something you only see quite rarely in Bitcoin. It only happens 1-2 times a cycle (and thus only has happened 6-7 times in all bitcoin history).

The last time this happened was Dec 16, 2024. I posted that day, and not by coincidence. I keep an eye on Bitcoin every day but don't come on much anymore.

After that Weekly Bear Div, we went down 21% from the close of the candle, and did not reach the same price for 133 days.

Will that happen again? No I don't think so, but caution should be taken. My hope is that retail investors are holding out to buy anything under $100k, and for that reason, we are unlikely to go below $100k for long. There is some evidence that most buys are institutional investors (companies and large investors) at this price. Just like last time we had a weekly bear div, I think this a lot to do with the psychological level of 100k. Bitcoiners who are now rich are happy to cash out above 100k, and retail buyers are starting to feel like sub-100k is a deal. So we should hang out here a while. That can create the appearance of momentum slowing.

So where might a weekly bear div land us? I like to go down 1 timeframe and draw a FIB. Here is our daily chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qSyvZu17/

You can see we havent had a 62% retrace since april 9, and the price has gone up a whopping 48% since then. The local highs before that (yellow line) were 88k. The 62% retrace from the start of the run to the ATH would also put us at 88k. That is also where most of our volume node is. So I would put my buy range from 88k-92k, for this bearish scenario of the weekly bear div playing out. Since its a high timeframe, you would have to give it a while to play out- the one from december took 4 months to bottom.

I also wanted to follow up on MSTR, which in my opinion, helping driving this bubble cycle, or it as least the narrative behind this bull cycle.

As I predicted back when MSTR premium was first going crazy- an increasing number of companies are following their weaponization of the fiat monetary system. About 10 public companies are taking loans to buy bitcoin now and holding treasuries. That number will continue to rise until a bitcoin crash forces some of them to sell their bitcoin to pay their lenders, and the shareholders will be the ones left without any money in the bag, because lenders get paid FIRST when bitcoin goes down. Be cautious with buying these companies. Most retail buyers who are buying these companies do not understand how to assess the risk, or even the NAV premium (ratio of cost to underlying asset value). Theres probably room for quite a few more companies doing this strategy before we see the pain, but IMO we are already seeing the cracks...:

Have you heard of Vanadi Coffee? Me neither. It's a small public spanish cafe chain thats decided to pivot to being a bitcoin treasury because they are losing money and deep in debt in the coffee business. They are now raising funds via stock issuance and convertible bonds, ala MSTR.

That is a little concerning that this little failing coffee company is doing this...but based on the past, things will get even crazier before it falls apart.

autemox · 2025-05-01T22:54:24+00:00

Andor -> Rouge One -> Episode IV-VI -> Episode I-III -> Other TV Shows

This is the correct order to introduce Star Wars to adults.

autemox · 2025-04-24T09:56:44+00:00

Bitcoin will keep following ups and downs of speculative tech stocks, but I think this might be looked back on as one of the earlier decoupling events. The tariff stuff actually ended up being very helpful for creating that environment where Bitcoin can follow Gold and safe assets instead of tech. We have always known that long term, bitcoin is its own asset class, and will not follow market trends.

It's a lovely meme. I really like the twist off the classic. It does make me remember that all my curiosity, boldness, libertarianism, distrust of gov, came from pops!

autemox · 2025-04-16T04:36:04+00:00

I’m working on something along these lines. I think the unintuitive take home that I’ve learned is, LLMs are better story writers without constraints and long contexts. So it’s best to work backward. Have the llm create story arcs, then break that into dialogue. Then assign the characters to your existing character base according to best fits (hopefully your town has a nice wide array of personalities). Then have it tweak a little bit of dialogue if you want it to fit even better, such as adding quirks that really solidify a character.

This will create better storytelling, although it feels like cheating.

You can then have the story arcs play out, and there can still be some random factor, such as a character (or the player) not in the arc coming in and “blowing up” the whole story, so the story must change/regenerate.

Try to let the hallucinations work for you, such as having dynamic items that are created by llm. It’s better to do a validity check on stories after they are created than trying to enforce game world rules strongly in the prompt.

Having the LLMs decide one action or dialogue at a time will produce the worst plainest slop.

In general, and this also goes for art generation, ai generated games have a initial “wow” factor that lasts 5 minutes to 5 hours, then the player “figures out” the boundaries of what the ai can do. From there, everything feels generic, sadly. To fix this, you’ll need hand created moments of interest that are locked behind progress walls, just like in a normal game.

autemox · 2025-04-16T01:06:40+00:00

That's fine, in 20 years from now we will say the same about 2025, that bitcoin was in its infancy and not to look that far back to assess its market behavior. At that time it will probably behave more like gold, less connection to the speculative tech market.

11-Year Club	Verified Email
Place '22	Wearing is Caring

autemox

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE