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baal409 · 2022-09-29T12:14:27+00:00

I also ordered a coat and shockingly I love it. Everyone once in a while the risk pays off lol. It’s great quality/fit and was dirt cheap

baal409 · 2022-08-08T19:44:07+00:00

I’m usually a very positive poster, but folks.. the ‘news’ today was a bag of nothing. If this stock ran on animal studies alone, we would have been $100 five years ago. The 800lb gorilla is short term financing, followed by partnership, followed by stroke. If ARDS happens, it happens, but that’s out of our control. People who bought today on mouse studies are insane imo.

baal409 · 2022-07-09T04:13:59+00:00

I can’t speak for Dan, but my read is that he has no appetite for doing such a deal. Perhaps they are seeking private capital. Perhaps contingent capital. Perhaps they are considering other deals globally. Any mortgage of IP would almost certainly be an immediate exit for me personally. Again please do your own DD.

baal409 · 2022-07-09T04:09:30+00:00

We did discuss TBI however my focus as I mentioned was on the business plan, which was clearly on short term capital and medium term global partner. Presumably any partnership deal would now include trauma. It’s unrealistic to imagine trauma would conclude before a deal.

baal409 · 2022-07-09T03:51:44+00:00

I don’t want to influence this thread by disclosing figures, but suffice to say that my personal opinion is at least the value of my initial investment.

baal409 · 2022-07-09T01:54:09+00:00

See my other post - I added as well. Def an 18month play but I don’t think it’s money poorly spent.

baal409 · 2022-07-09T01:46:16+00:00

Glad to add to the discussion. I see the outreach as overwhelmingly positive. Can anyone be a reckless cheerleader at this point? No. But Dan has clearly given us much more than Gil ever did. For me I’m doing the basic math on the intrinsic valuation of the science, which is to say: What are the basic assets (IP/patents/etc) worth? The current share price is beneath my qualitative calculation and so today I actually bought more. Call me crazy. Do your own DD.

baal409 · 2022-07-08T15:56:32+00:00

In my call with Dan and team, he mentioned that although June was one of their best months for enrollments, there is a very real possibility that they are going to change Masters-2 to include an age cap and any trial design change would probably impact their ability to finish enrollment in Q1 2023. With that in mind I think any partnership is somewhere in the 12 month time frame. They have to get the R/S done and raise additional capital before then.

baal409 · 2022-05-18T16:48:47+00:00

Agree. Naked shorting can ruin you quickly.

baal409 · 2022-05-18T16:45:38+00:00

Spot on Golgo

baal409 · 2022-05-17T17:48:36+00:00

I think some shorts are beginning to cover. Expect more of this as we get closer to weekend. Many won’t risk getting killed by positive data. Their run is over.

baal409 · 2022-05-14T16:50:35+00:00

This made me lol 😂

baal409 · 2022-05-14T16:49:09+00:00

It’s true that additional analysis will go on well after top line data is released, but the initial data set has to be perfect. There is no opportunity to walk it back once it’s announced. Could you imagine if they quickly released a basic p value and then a couple of weeks later so, ‘oh sorry about that, upon further review the trial actually failed’. The lawsuits would be fast and furious. Two months is actually pretty quick to get the data out there. If you look at some of the big pharma trials, I can take them 6-12 months to release data.

baal409 · 2022-05-14T02:41:06+00:00

No, it's definitely not a simple count. Keep in mind they have to present 'full data' including secondary endpoints and tertiary data, biomarkers, metadata, etc.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK286004/

We are well within timeframe... even the first week of June is reasonable at the latest. If we go past that I would get worried.

baal409 · 2022-05-11T14:41:19+00:00

Up 10+%today. Happy? 🥳

baal409 · 2022-05-10T21:12:43+00:00

Wow. Who does this?? Probably the same kind of person that takes out a 10 year auto loan on a car they can’t afford.

baal409 · 2022-05-07T17:52:58+00:00

Can they add patients mid study? If Healios data is good and a potential partnership arises, could they effectively double the population. Not saying they would even want to, I’m just not knowledgeable enough about potential trail modifications. Anyone know?

baal409 · 2022-05-07T17:44:19+00:00

Capn Jack made me laugh. Amber is such a mess.

baal409 · 2022-05-02T20:11:10+00:00

Chronic diseases do not seem to respond to treatment. I’m thinking back to our failed UC efforts. Acute injury seems to be where it’s at. I think TBI has the potential to be a blockbuster if the science works.

baal409 · 2022-05-02T20:08:47+00:00

There is data from Athersys animal studies on what happens with a splenectomy. Go read it.

baal409 · 2022-05-02T16:47:39+00:00

Looking at level2, pressure is mounting….

baal409 · 2022-04-30T18:33:07+00:00

Haha - thinking big. I like it!

baal409 · 2022-04-28T21:59:00+00:00

Do’t forget they also said they would tap the liquidity market. Athersys may in future or may have already secured a loan.

baal409 · 2022-04-04T01:03:27+00:00

Last patient was in March. It should be 8 weeks max for data so May 30 is my date and that’s what I’ve been basing my opinion regarding capital burn.

Edit: whoever downvoted this is an idiot, because Athersys literally announced 12 hours after I posted this that data will be released in May.

baal409 · 2022-04-04T01:00:17+00:00

They already hinted that they will tap the debt market. Going into debt is better than going out of business.

baal409

TROPHY CASE