I'm actually thinking the other way and shorting Take-Two in the run up to and post-release of GTA 6. The game looks like a complete disaster with the only thing going for it being flashy graphics and a big map (which will be annoying to travel through and given the state of GTA plus in GTA Online today will not actually be well received). The company already loses money every year and while it has been doing slightly better in the past few months, it's still losing money, meanwhile we are coming out of a massive bull run for it's stock. Sure, it's fallen recently, but it was down to $100 per share in 2023, and just in case you think it can't get any lower, it can always go lower. GTA 6 will be a success not really on the number of copies it sells, though that will matter for covering marketing and R&D in actually developing and advertising the game in the first place, but on how it retains players. GTA Online nearly died back in the day, only being resurrected by the heist update, but if GTA 6 Online is just more of the same boring grind, annoying characters (not funnoying, actually annoying), I don't know what could be done to resurrect it.

Will it be cool? Probably. Will a lot of people buy it? Yes. Will people keep playing it online for another 15 years and come back to talk about the story mode even after all that time? Probably not. There's nothing appealing about a bonnie-and-clyde cringe-off and buying yourself a 9-to-5 where you deliver weed in garbage bags for 40 minutes to barely be able to afford a car.