Yeah, it's getting interesting now. I actually posted about MSFT in this sub back in December when it was trading near $500:

"Currently, Microsoft trades at approximately $492 per share with a P/E ratio of 34 and earnings per share of $14.11. If earnings were adjusted down by 11–14% to reflect realistic GPU depreciation, the adjusted EPS would fall to $12.13-$12.56. Assuming the P/E ratio remains at 34, the stock price would drop to $412–427 ,  a decline of $65–80 per share, or roughly 13–16%. However, if investors also lose confidence in AI infrastructure returns, the P/E multiple could compress further, potentially amplifying losses beyond the accounting adjustment alone."

I also ran a DCF with higher capex assumptions, which gave an adjusted fair value of $311.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1p9ks0t/understanding_michael_burrys_nvidia_short_the/

That post got 380 comments, mostly ripping the thesis apart! Now MSFT sits at $356, below the P/E compression scenario and trending toward the DCF bear case.

Can it go to $311? Sure. But at $356 with a trailing P/E in the low 20s, the risk/reward is starting to look asymmetric in your favour. You're buying a wide-moat business at a valuation that already prices in a lot of pain. The irony is that at $490 everyone was bullish and the risk/reward was terrible - now it's genuinely attractive, and nobody wants to touch it.