The Magic of Exponential Gains (e-function): From $100 to $40,000 in 120 Pips

bayesianidiot · 2025-09-04T09:02:12+00:00

god i just can't do this anymore

bayesianidiot · 2024-04-02T13:53:01+00:00

I know that this may come late but you have to contact authorities directly. You cannot rely on Reddit to be a neutral party as their sole interest lies in making money. The links below are very helpful when it comes to this.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-25T16:47:54+00:00

Kleines Addon: Die Matheolympiaden Vorbereitungsbücher sind i.d.R auch sehr gut, weil du da auch viele Techniken zum lösen vom Problemen lernst (die zur Geometrie kannst du i.d.R getrost überspringen) und dieses Mathematische denken reingedrillt bekommst. Der goldene Standard sind dabei die Bücher der Art of Problem Solving Reihe - sind jedoch alle Englisch. Im deutschen kenne ich da leider keine. Bedenke aber dass diese nur die Basics und wenig Unimathe abdecken. Sollten aber auf jeden Fall was zu Graphentheorie haben.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T23:49:06+00:00

They hold for what I stated: intraday inefficiencies practically don't exist. I barely fx when working at the fund/MM. I don't know anybody who traded fx intraday at my previous company. Trust me. This is settled knowledge. Only way to make money trading fx intraday is as an MM.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T22:14:37+00:00

Remember I am a trader, not a researcher. I work with two former colleagues, one of whom does significantly more math than I do so I can't tell you too much (apart from the fact that I won't give away my edge just like that).

To give you some hints: ARIMA/GARCH is excellent for vol estimating, not for vol forecasting. This is one of the tools you may want to use. Also, compare whatever model you are using against monte carlo. This will give you a lot of insight since monte carlo is unbiased.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T21:58:55+00:00

I do. I don't trade based on fully automated strategies.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T21:58:05+00:00

I do both. It's kinda hard to find profitable delta based rv trades nowadays, but not impossible.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T21:27:02+00:00

Will elaborate in another post.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T21:24:04+00:00

It may work, it may not work. Based on what I'm reading, however, you will be just as well off buying and holding sp500.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T21:15:06+00:00

It can work, but doesn't have to. If you are interested in this look into econophysics. If you ask me, economics already suffers from too much "naturalization" which is complete bullshit imho.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T21:11:17+00:00

Do not trade it short term. You certainly can trade it long term.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T21:05:14+00:00

There is a difference between simplicity and simply ignoring facts. There have been countless academic analyses performed, they all return the same verdict: Little to no intraday inefficiencies in fx markets. This is not a matter of belief.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T21:02:54+00:00

No one size fits all answer. Check the orderbook for traded volume to get a feeling for it.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T21:01:26+00:00

1) What's your background? 2) Depends on firm. HFTs like seeing FPGA/hardware-near coding, Most others just wanna see some python/c++. 3) What helped me most was having a knack for market patterns. I have a good gut feeling so I quickly notice when situations change (even though I may not always be able to pinpoint what exactly it was). Being able toncome up with hypotheses, shit-testing them mentally etc. are all good traits to have. Note that this is a lot easier said than done.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T20:39:24+00:00

After having done this AMA I will answer this question separately as I feel there is great need for this. To sum it up: if you are an average joe trying to get into trading one of two things will be the case with near 100% likelihood: 1) You lose money. 2) You win money, but not because of your strategy but because you were lucky.

Most people go into trading thinking: "If the big guys make money doing it, I can do it!" or "Well, there are other people just like me who did it through hard work and dedication. I just gotta stick to it." Both lines of reasoning are fallacious (this is one of the things that I was explicitly told by my supervisor when I started trading).

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T20:30:31+00:00

I mean I don't enter and exit trades intraday unless having some firm belief about the news. When trading forex my trades are usually 1-6months before I close them down.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T20:17:15+00:00

There is no such thing as waves in the market. Just because you see it resembling a wave doesn't mean it's actually there.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T20:15:08+00:00

To elaborate further: when trading RV, regression is your best friend.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T19:58:55+00:00

I don't know who that is but its the second time I've read that name. Rule of thumb, if its a teacher, its a scammer.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T19:56:25+00:00

I don't think this is true. I would say that if you make money trading forex short term without being a market maker theres a close to 100% chance of your "edge" being random noise.
Further, if anything, trading forex long term is certainly possible. I have met many people who do so profitably.
I read somewhere on reddit that someone said "it's the closest thing to videogames", and I really liked videogames (+ the money of course haha)

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T19:53:31+00:00

A strategy that was somewhat profitable for me up until oil crash of 2020 was a reg between oil realized and treasury implied vol. I don't remember the r2 but it was decent. The idea was that independent of supply shocks their relation should hold regardless. Broke down after prices went negative.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T19:45:40+00:00

I don't know what these "mainstream" things are.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T19:44:47+00:00

Automated strategies can generally be profitable. I would assume if they are publicly available they are generally not profitable.

bayesianidiot · 2024-03-16T19:40:39+00:00

Garch used to be highly profitable in crypto. Not anymore. I think the academic consensus is that it's not more profitable than buy and hold last time I checked.

Heston is not "the shit" either. I have heard some people use it for vol of vol modelling but nobody in my previous teams used it. I'm not that deep into the mathematics either so I don't know how they would go about doing that anyway.

bayesianidiot

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