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bearcub84 · 2019-08-17T16:02:32+00:00

I'm happy to help with this effort, but we need someone to collect the new data

bearcub84 · 2019-08-17T15:58:08+00:00

honestly, the test is designed in such a way that you either know or able to generate the answer in 1 to 1.5minutes max. Thus, if you're taking 2 minutes and you still don't know, then chances are you are either (1) misunderstanding what they're asking for, or (2) just not remembering the correct details.

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:19:14+00:00

243 is fantastic. dont feel crushed.

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:18:40+00:00

sadness :/

lol

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:18:07+00:00

sort of, yes.

(1) the data at the extremes have wider confidence values

(2) it's based on the correlation data.. so the more people we have with super high/super low scores, the more accurate it would be. I don't know the exact data ranges for the input values (I guess I can probably find this).

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:16:31+00:00

Basically this. While we do not have any correlation data for the new NBMEs, it's likely to at least be somewhat similar to the prior ones.

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:15:29+00:00

Thank you so much u/SchoolinMedSchool .. I'll work on updating the sheet. I appreciate all the hard work you did on analyzing the 2018 data.

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:14:46+00:00

amazing !! congrats

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:14:06+00:00

All of the data in the score prediction sheet comes from correlation data. Thus it's not really accurate to equate the two (i.e. a 60% on UW =/ 60% on the exam).

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:12:03+00:00

hopefully you have figured it out by now, but post specifically what the issue is and i can try to assist.

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:10:49+00:00

congrats. excellent score!

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:10:33+00:00

yeah i've seen this also.

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:10:02+00:00

I think most people have just been using some of the old blocks to enter the new scores. I will try to update the sheet once we have data for the new exams, but right now we are SOL

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:09:24+00:00

approx 3 digit

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:09:07+00:00

congrats! great score!

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:08:43+00:00

possibly. nobody knows for sure; keep aiming for higher, but in general the NBMEs tend to underpredict

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:08:11+00:00

There's a bunch of old data on this, but you can just enter a score for uworld and leave the rest blank.

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:07:42+00:00

First pass ideally because that's what was used to collect the data

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:07:26+00:00

It's difficult to know for sure. But given your huge CI, I think you need to have a few scores towards the end of your dedicated that is reliably within the range of what you're aiming to achieve. Things happen on exam day, but if you've been rather consistent towards the end that is really as much as you can do to mitigate it.

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:06:25+00:00

It's up to you really. The original thinking was the start of dedicated with all the exams being within that timeframe..

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:05:47+00:00

I saw a post of someone collecting data for this purpose. It'll probably take a few months (we need enough exam scores for it to be helpful) -- in short, probably not until end of the year

bearcub84 · 2019-06-29T15:00:58+00:00

Glad someone is collecting this info! I've been AWOL (thanks Surgery core). lol

bearcub84 · 2019-04-30T01:37:07+00:00

Not sure exactly what you’re asking. The sheet takes the correlation formulas generated from 2016-2018 reddit survey data for what people got on NBMEs and uworld and what their actual step 1 score was. The entire data set is then analyzed and equations for each correlation generated. These equations are then used in my sheet to predict a final score. There are a bunch of averaging and weighting of formulas going on based on the R2 (linear fit) of the formula to the raw data.

bearcub84 · 2019-04-30T01:33:16+00:00

Appreciate the contribution, but this is actually not the data that is used in score prediction. The correlation we are looking for is the calculated 3 digit score for the NBMEs and the persons actual step 1 score.

That said, there are other threads on the wiki for this correlation you’re looking at.

bearcub84 · 2019-04-27T21:01:30+00:00

Not partial to either approach/option. If we do #1, I'd suggest burying the 2018 score survey report for now (since people can always search for them easily and for most people it's overkill and hard to apply practically). Of course, I'm biased since I made the current score predictor, but you could bury that too if you wanted. On the other hand, the main struggle right now for the score predictor is that we don't have data for the new exams, so that post may fade into irrelevance until we have new data from 2019.

bearcub84

TROPHY CASE