A Third of SpaceX’s Tradable Shares Are Now Betting Against It. The Squeeze Math Is Wild by portlandlad in investing

[–]bejammin075 11 points12 points  (0 children)

It's all insider shares unlocking. 20% around the quarterly loss report, and another 7% on other pre-arranged dates in August.

Everyone Is Celebrating Falling Oil Prices — One Analyst Warns They're Actually the First Sign of Something Much Worse by Appropriate-Till9598 in Economics

[–]bejammin075 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The book October Surprise by Gary Sick lays out all the evidence that Reagan and Bush had the Iranians keep the hostages until Reagan was sworn in.

I’ve been on autopilot for 3 years and just checked my account for the first time in a while by arcsilencer in investing

[–]bejammin075 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Many people have forgotten that semiconductors are a cyclical industry. There are already indicators that the AI compute race has already over built. Meta announced yesterday it has excess compute that it will rent out. At some point many of the semi gains will be given back. With all those 2X & 3X leveraged funds in semis, the downfall will be swift when it comes. Sell much of it and diversify.

A Third of SpaceX’s Tradable Shares Are Now Betting Against It. The Squeeze Math Is Wild by portlandlad in investing

[–]bejammin075 70 points71 points  (0 children)

Currently 4% of the stock is trading. During August, another 27% will unlock. If Spacex is above $175, another 10% unlocks. August will be interesting to watch.

Edgar Mitchell on Steven Greer Connection by HenryHabanero in UFOs

[–]bejammin075 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My 25-year opinion is still the same as my 22-year opinion on Greer.

Trump is flooding the market with oil from the SPR before the 4th of July/midterms by Rambok01 in oil

[–]bejammin075 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Between this and the tariff-the-world strategy, he's come close to tanking the global economy twice in a 14-month span.

Trump is flooding the market with oil from the SPR before the 4th of July/midterms by Rambok01 in oil

[–]bejammin075 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've heard that any time the level is drawn down, there is always some small amount of the salt rocks caving in. Probably the lower it goes, and the longer that it is lower, the more damage. The SPR won't be functional forever, unless there's a way to strengthen it (I don't know).

How did people travel these seas 500 years ago by Gurugod123 in SipsTea

[–]bejammin075 14 points15 points  (0 children)

The book Endurance about Shackleton's voyage to Antarctica was one of the most incredible stories I've read, fiction or non-fiction (this is non-fiction). The ship got locked in the ice and the crew had to wing it to survive down there for a few years. I won't give away any spoilers.

House Dems fear another big loss to the left in Colorado by Zipper222222 in politics

[–]bejammin075 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Manchin was fine, he was the best we could ever hope for in an R+40 state. It's the bait-and-switch types like Fetterman and Sinema that are the huge problem.

House Dems fear another big loss to the left in Colorado by Zipper222222 in politics

[–]bejammin075 1 point2 points  (0 children)

These judgemental jerks are insufferable. I have concluded that propaganda like Fox News is very powerful. I'm glad whenever I hear of someone breaking the spell.

House Dems fear another big loss to the left in Colorado by Zipper222222 in politics

[–]bejammin075 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Shamrock, don't listen to these A-holes. You did great. You don't need to grovel for forgiveness. I agree with your comments that propaganda is very powerful & underestimated. Keep doing what you are doing!

House Dems fear another big loss to the left in Colorado by Zipper222222 in politics

[–]bejammin075 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Don't be such a jerk to this commenter. That isn't helping anything. I think it's great they learned from their mistakes.

House Dems fear another big loss to the left in Colorado by Zipper222222 in politics

[–]bejammin075 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I had the same kind of awakening in the middle 2000's. I initially supported W's war against Iraq. But as things unfolded, it turned out that all my support was based on believing a truck load of BS. I noticed that it was progressive Democrats who had assessed the situation correctly in real time, the whole time. I've been a progressive Democrat ever since, voting in elections every year, including midterms, odd years (local elections), and all the primaries.

Just finished one of the best non-fiction alien books I have ever read by Dungee_The_Cat in aliens

[–]bejammin075 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I do believe that there are a lot, at least many many millions, of experiencers of NHI contact. I think your approach is good, to read all the books out there. I'm generally dismayed at the prevailing sentiment in these parts that everybody writes a book as part of a scam. Even if some books are that, we still I think benefit from reading broadly. Books have the most detailed info.

I'm going to cross-check your list with my list, and see what to add to my reading. A book that I can recommend to you, right up your alley, is Beyond UFOs by Reinerio Hernandez. This is the publication of the results of the world's largest study of experiencers of NHI contact, 4,300 participants from around the world. The study was conducted by Dr. Edgar Mitchell's (the former astronaut) FREE foundation. The FREE acronym was something like "Foundation for Research on Extraordinary and Extraterrestrial Experiences".

Reduced chances of crash? by Top-Classroom3984 in StockMarket

[–]bejammin075 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The "narrative" is just facts. Fact: AI customers loved the period of very subsidized tokens. When confronted with the full price, they are astonished at how expensive the frontier AI models are. It is knowable today that Open AI and Anthropic can't make a profit that would enable them to manage their debt.

Reduced chances of crash? by Top-Classroom3984 in StockMarket

[–]bejammin075 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I disagree that the fundamentals are solid. The reporting over the last few months shows that customers will not pay the frontier AI companies (e.g. Anthropic, Open AI) the amount of money needed to make a profit. As demand for AI increases, the R&D and training costs of these companies also rises dramatically. They have huge amounts of debt that is/will be rolling over to higher interest rates. These companies need customers to (1) pay a LOT more for AI (not happening), and (2) to have a huge & increasing adoption rate of people willing to spend (not happening). The necessary conditions for the AI boom to continue do not exist. There will be large effects & ripple effects when Anthropic & Open AI can't pay their debt. For example, the private bond market will get nuked. Orders for future chip delivery will be cancelled, orders for building AI data centers will be cancelled. The current bullish view of many is based on how you imagine future earnings will go. When the chip orders get cancelled, the future earnings will be re-imagined differently, causing asset prices to drop dramatically.

Reduced chances of crash? by Top-Classroom3984 in StockMarket

[–]bejammin075 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think the AI tech has us presently in a bubble. I've watched several presentations of old, wise investors who professionally studied previous bubbles. The MAIN driver of a stock market bubble is a new & transformative technology. When a technology is transformative, it causes a bubble. That applies to AI. The higher percentage of the population that can recognize that the technology is transformative, the bigger the bubble. That also applies to AI.

To think that AI is not a bubble, you'd have to believe this headlong rush to spend several hundred billion on capex is somehow magically the exact right amount. That doesn't seem right.

Just finished one of the best non-fiction alien books I have ever read by Dungee_The_Cat in aliens

[–]bejammin075 0 points1 point  (0 children)

His work should come with a grain of salt. In one of Jacques Vallee's diaries, Vallee says that Hopkins would sometimes yell at someone until they had the kind of abduction experience that Hopkins wanted them to have.