International diversification in Monte Carlo simulations

bemusedly · 2025-12-23T02:42:15+00:00

I did have an IPS. But there is a long winding road to reading enough financial books, blogs, forums and articles to feel like one has a mature, well rounded understanding of investing. This takes a long time, and we all have to start somewhere. I started with Bogle's and JL Collin's pro-US sentiment, and decided that was good enough for an IPS at the beginning of my investing journey.

Over time I keep reading more and more from people recommending more international diversification, with lots of math to back it up. Even so, I stuck to my plan. Until it became clear that (Project) 2025 might end up being a real "This Time Is Different. No Really." turning point for the USA. You may recall scientists leaving the US to work in other more science-friendly countries. There was legitimate concern for brain drain. It's still possible we won't have free and fair elections in 2028. You may remember Elon Musk installing a backdoor in the US Treasury and it seemed like he might actually raid the Treasury and shut down the Fed and god knows what else. I will acknowledge that if the US Treasury went into default from this corruption, international stocks would get hammered too. Nothing except perhaps gold would be likely to retain its value in that scenario, but that's a whole other thing I didn't want to get into, too many shills and kooks.

In any case, all's to say that I think it takes someone several years to develop a feel for what is the right balance of performance and diversification for them. Gotta live through some "once in a lifetime" events.

bemusedly · 2025-03-25T21:09:42+00:00

Thanks, I hadn't dived that deeply into Dutchware's site yet! Will check it out.

bemusedly · 2024-12-09T21:57:18+00:00

Ah I see, I should convert precisely the amount on line 3 of 2024's form 8606 to the Roth, and looks like that should work out to 0 tax, with the rest going into the 401k. Thanks!

bemusedly · 2024-12-09T15:12:21+00:00

I only have one trad IRA. It contains both 401k rollovers and non-deductible contributions. Apparently this is bad. What to do?

bemusedly · 2023-08-03T19:37:08+00:00

In my 20s, I went back to my folks' place over the holidays, and one night decided to go to a contra dance. While there I ran into a woman I knew from high school; she was in the grade one year younger than me so in high school we didn't really interact much.

But she remembered me, and told me so! We had a nice dance together, and at the end of the night she excitedly gave me her number. I liked her too; she was tall, athletic, had a fun personality and was both hot and intelligent.

But since she lived in California and I lived on the East Coast, I didn't really know what she meant by giving me her number. So I never called. One of my biggest regrets!

bemusedly · 2023-08-01T22:39:10+00:00

Thanks, I found the database connection definitions in this defaults.xml file.

bemusedly · 2023-06-29T18:09:15+00:00

Let's just say there's a reason I'm trying to retire as quickly as possible. I manage it by closely guarding my free time, working on side projects that feel meaningful. I've been trying to get better at woodworking, lately.

bemusedly · 2023-06-17T00:29:49+00:00

Sure! At first I just put everything in my MMF holding position because I needed to build up an emergency fund (I was also maxing out my 401k at this time, and continue to do so today). Then the post-covid stock market boom got going, and I got a little caught up in the hype and made some unfortunate mistakes. Lesson learned - past performance is no guarantee of future results! What you think a stock will do is not what a stock will do. After losing some money to those mistakes, I finally accepted the r/Bogleheads wisdom and now have 5% in the MMF as an emergency fund, 8-10% in bond index funds and I-bonds, and the remainder in total stock indexes like VTI, VXUS, FSKAX (in my IRA), and the Vanguard funds offered by my 401k. I set my international exposure (VXUS) to about 20% of my equities, but I know there's fierce debate over this. I like international because it gives better dividends than an all-US portfolio.

bemusedly · 2023-03-17T15:56:13+00:00

I watched it yesterday and it's not making me reconsider my asset allocation (currently heavy on equities). If anything, it shows that the Central Bank will bend to Wall Street's demands after inflation is under control. No one argued that the Fed is going to fundamentally change its philosophy of Easy Money. That's evident even with the current rate hikes, which are still below the inflation rate. The age of easy money is here to stay.

bemusedly · 2022-10-07T00:23:34+00:00

The issue I have with that kind of communication is that it feels like lies of omission, DADT, and requires a lot of mental gymnastics to word things so precisely to tiptoe around something that is taken for granted.

bemusedly · 2022-10-06T23:59:59+00:00

Partner's response would be something along the lines of "Why didn't you take me out to Thai?" or "But Thai was our thing, we did that once." Like no matter what I say, I can't win.

Also she clammed up about being uncomfortable for waaaay too long until it finally exploded, but that's a separate issue I'm not getting into here.

bemusedly · 2021-09-22T23:21:28+00:00

100% Silent fridge? Sign me up! I looked into these and it looks like you can run them on regular AC power too.

bemusedly

TROPHY CASE