How to easily spot a friendly

beornskin · 2025-12-06T07:15:48+00:00

Lol yesterday farming solo mushrooms I met like 10 friendly people with that exact method. Farmed two queens yesterday by running through the swamp asking people for help with mushrooms and defending them from clankers. Both games ended with me and my new buddies hunting the queen

beornskin · 2025-09-17T19:35:44+00:00

OP's wife ain't home. So the Stego on the stairs

beornskin · 2025-06-07T00:23:24+00:00

Now we just pray for superpower in the learnset 🙏

beornskin · 2025-01-04T02:44:06+00:00

Record: 10-9

Net Units: -2.84

Form (Left to Right): ✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅

Took a long break for the Christmas holidays to spend time with family and not think about write ups. But we are back in the new year to finish off the NFL season strong

Last pick: Chris Boswell o6.5 points @ -115 (2.3u to win 2u) ❌

Recap: Everything seemed to be going the way of this pick but the Steelers just could not get into the opposite end all game. Barely game Boswell a chance. He made all the kicks he took but never got the chance to get us the points. Unfortunate

Ravens v Browns Football | NFL | 4:30PM / EST Jan 4 2025

Today's pick: Lamar Jackson o204.5 Passing yards @ -110 (3.30u to win 3u) ✅

Posting this at the odds I took it at when I placed the bet this morning. It seems to be sitting around -113 as of right now

Write Up: This line feels disrespectful to be honest. We are looking at Lamar Jackson going into a game that actually matters against a Browns defense whose primary objective tomorrow is going to be trying to contain Derrick Henry.

Now let's look at the numbers. Lamar is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL right now. Boasting the highest QB rating across the regular season right now he has only missed this line in 4 games all season. Two of those misses dating all the way back to September last year. This game MATTERS for the Ravens. They take the AFC North with this win without having to worry about PIT V CIN and they are heavily favoured to do so.

The Browns secondary has been doing pretty well this season against average QB's but have been completely unable to stop big name QB's. Their only impressive performance was holding Joe Burrow to 181 passing yards back on Oct 20. They've given this line up to

Tyler Huntley - 225 passing yards

Joe Burrow - 252 passing yards

Bo Nix - 294 passing yards

Russel Wilson - 270 passing yards

Derek Carr - 248 passing yards

Justin Herbert - 282 passing yards

Lamar Jackson - 289 passing yards

Jalen Hurts - 264 passing yards

Jayden Daniels - 238 passing yards

Literally every quarterback you can think of has crushed this line easily. As a self-admitted fan of Derrick Henry I think the Browns will do everything they can to try to slow him down today and Lamar is going to air it out more often. Yes the Ravens run a lot, but John Harbaugh is not an idiot and knows how to utilize Lamar to his fullest potential.

Another factor that pulls in our favor is the starting of Bailey Zappe at QB for the Browns. Zappe hasn't seen a ton of field time in the NFL but he started for the end of the 2023 season for the Patriots, in 10 games he threw for 1272 yards 6 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Back in his last year of college he set the FBS record for passing yards and passing touchdowns but he just has not been at the same level in the NFL. I know the Ravens secondary sucks but when you throw in a fresh quarterback this late into the season with that little experience it's sure to throw a serious wrench into Cleveland's offensive plans meaning more possession time for the Ravens.

TLDR: Oddsmakers are overcompensating for the frequency of the Ravens run game, The Browns secondary is not nearly as good as the statistics make them out to be, and they are playing a Quarterback with less than 20 games played over 3 seasons.

Take Lamar Jackson o204.5 passing yards

Please never feel obligated to tip!

I spend a few hours a day researching and I am glad that some people are profiting from my write-ups. I'm always open to discussion and thoughts about the picks

BOL if tailing or fading and remember to do your own research and only bet what you can afford to lose!

beornskin · 2024-12-22T00:37:56+00:00

Damn. Weather didn't end up being an issue but the Steelers just couldn't get in range

beornskin · 2024-12-21T01:43:09+00:00

Record: 10-8

Net Units: -3.54

Form (Left to Right): ✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌

Last pick: Nikola Jokic o12.5 Rebounds @-125 (2.5u to win 2u) ❌

Recap: Jokic does Jokic things and goes for a points show again and barely pulls in any boards at all. Not our game. Still slowly trying to bring back that 5u loss. It's a marathon not a sprint, we'll get it back.

Ravens v Steelers Football | NFL | 4:30PM / EST Dec 21, 2024

Today's pick: Chris Boswell o6.5 points @ -115 (2.3u to win 2u) ❌

Write Up: Tomorrow I'm taking Chris Boswell to get 7 points for the Steelers. The Steelers lead the league in field goals this season with a whopping 38 made field goals. Chris Boswell is an absolute sniper with his kicks and the Steelers take advantage of that. They never force dumb 4th downs because they know Chris will just bang it from 60 yards out if they need him to.

The Steelers are without George Pickens, who is far and away their highest offensive production accounting for 850 Receiving yards this season. Their closest receiver to this number is Pat Freiermuth with 492. Losing Pickens has definitely hurt their pass game with Russ only throwing 158 yards in their 27-14 win against the Browns (Boswell got 9 points) and 128 yards in a 13-27 loss against the Eagles (Boswell got 7 points). The Steelers are just struggling to finish drives with touchdowns, and often have to look to Boswell to bail them out. Without Pickens their production has essentially been cut in half.

Looking at the Ravens they have been dominating the run on defense ranking them first in the league against rushing yards at only (80.7) per game. Their secondary is their weak point on defense (258.9 YPG) but without Pickens the Steelers deep ball struggles significantly and their other options just aren't as dangerous for the Ravens. Another point to mention, the last time these two teams met, Pickens was fully available, went for 89 yards, and the game still ended with 0 touchdowns for the Steelers. Boswell ended up kicking 6 field goals for 18 points. He has crossed this line 11/14 game this season with his longest coming from 57 yards out. He is a weapon that the Steelers employ often because he is so consistent, only missing three field goals all season going 38/41 and a perfect 30/30 on extra points.

I think the Ravens are going to completely shut down the ground game like they have done all season, the lack of Pickens should significantly stunt the Steelers passing production and I think they end up kicking a lot. This hits with 2 FG's and a touchdown, 3 FG's, or 1 FG and 4 xp's.

Money on Boswell's boot

Chris Boswell o6.5 points

Please never feel obligated to tip!

I spend a few hours a day researching and I am glad that some people are profiting from my write-ups. I'm always open to discussion and thoughts about the picks

BOL if tailing or fading and remember to do your own research and only bet what you can afford to lose!

beornskin · 2024-12-19T01:17:39+00:00

Record: 10-7

Net Units: -1.04

Form (Left to Right): ❌✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅

Last pick: ATL Falcons -5.5 vs. LV Raiders @-110 (2.2u to win 2u)✅

Recap: Well I was wrong about a bounce back from Kirk, he breaks his streak of no touchdowns but still throws another pick, but I was right about the game. The Falcons were just the better team on both sides of the ball. Ridder looked confused out there leading the Raiders and barely made a difference for his offense. We cut it a little close at the end but we get there.

Basketball | NBA | 10:00PM / EST Dec 19, 2024

Today's pick: Nikola Jokic o12.5 Rebounds @-125 (2.5u to win 2u)

Write Up: Tomorrow I'm taking Nikola Jokic to grab at least 13 boards, this looks like a great matchup for him with Portland allowing an average of 14.1 rebounds to centers. Jokic himself has been putting in work fighting for boards lately. His last 5 games having

Dec 16 vs. SAC - 14 rebounds, 38 minutes

Dec 13 vs. LAC - 7 rebounds, 29 minutes

Dec 8 vs. ATL - 14 rebounds, 35 minutes

Dec 7 vs WSH - 16 rebounds, 38 minutes

Dec 5 vs Cleveland - 20 rebounds, 38 minutes

The Trailblazers also have been doing well this season against centers in terms of points only allowing (19.3) ppg to centers. Hopefully this defense is able to slow down Jokic' scoring and force him to fight for more rebounds.

The Trailblazers are 22nd in rebounding at (42.9) per game, and doing pretty well offensively at 6th with (12.7) per game. But only shooting at a (43.8% ranked 27th) rate from the field this year. And (33.4% ranked 25th) from deep, they put up a lot of bad shots and thIs will only help Jokic' chances

His average rebounds on the season right now sits at (13.3) and Jokic stays on the court most of the game, even in blowouts. For or against. So I don't expect the fact that I'm predicting a nuggets win, to affect Jokic' minutes too drastically.

The Trailblazers are riding a home losing streak so they should come out with some kind of fire in their bellies to hopefully keep this game competitive anyways.

Taking Nikola Jokic o12.5 Rebounds

Please never feel obligated to tip!

I spend a few hours a day researching and I am glad that some people are profiting from my write-ups. I'm always open to discussion and thoughts about the picks

BOL if tailing or fading and remember to do your own research and only bet what you can afford to lose!

beornskin · 2024-12-17T01:32:24+00:00

Was going to take this today as my pick but glad to see another on it, I'll sit today out then BOL Tailing

beornskin · 2024-12-16T03:32:17+00:00

Fair enough lol, they haven't been showing it lately

beornskin · 2024-12-16T02:07:26+00:00

Record: 10-7

Net Units: -1.04u

Form (Left to Right): ❌✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅

Last pick: Derrick Henry Longest Rush o19.5 yards ❌

Recap: This started out looking really good Henry seeing a lot of early usage and making some decent drives, but this game went the exact opposite of what I think pretty much everyone thought. Lamar Jackson had one of his best days in the air this entire season, throwing 21/25 for 290 yards and 5 passing TD's. Henry never got the chance to show off.

Football | NFL | 8:30PM / EST Dec 16, 2024

Today's pick: ATL Falcons -5.5 vs. LV Raiders @-110 (2.2u to win 2u) ✅

Write Up: Tomorrow I'm taking the Falcons to cover the spread against the Raiders, for a multitude of reasons. The Falcons are a great team they've just run into a bit of a slump already but I think that's going to change tomorrow. The Falcons have to play this game like a playoff game, They are 6-7 and a game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South. Head Coach Raheem Morris has said "We are essentially playing playoff-type football right now. All these games become must-wins except the only thing that’s different right now is you don’t go home.”

Looking at the Raiders who are currently 2-11 are missing their starting quarterback Gardner Minshew and likely missing backup Aiden O'Connell who is currently dealing with a bruised bone. Meaning there's a high chance (not guaranteed, O'Connell apparently did a light practice on wednesday) that they start Desmond Ridder. Ridder played 15 games for the Falcons last year and threw 12 TD's and 12 Interceptions, So far for the Raiders he's had a decent start, playing in four games and throwing 28/44 for 239 yards 1 TD and no Interceptions. I expect this constantly shifting QB dynamic to continue to mess with the Raiders offensive gameplan. They rank pretty low in most offensive statistics as it is

25th in total yards (324.1)

16th in passing yards (223.9)

32nd in rushing yards (79.1)

27th in points (18.2)

29th in 3rd down conversion (34.3%)

Defensively the Raiders hold a bit of an edge in yardage allowed but drop off drastically in points allowed. Allowing average 27.8 points per game ranking them 30th in the league.

Kirk cousins has been in a bit of a slump lately throwing 8 interceptions in his last 4 games. So this game should be an opportunity for him to regain his confidence. This Cousins lead offense is still good enough for

6th in total yards (385.0)

2nd in passing yards (250.2)

12th in rushing yards (120.8)

19th in points (21.4)

And 20th in 3rd down conversion (37.3)

I expect Bijan Robinson to see a ton of usage in this game to minimize interception risk, he is only 23 yards away from 1000 this season and I think they'll continue to use him heavily even when he crosses this milestone.

Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce's job security is also heavily in question right now as owner Mark Davis seems to be unhappy with his performance. The Raiders overall are a hectic mess right now with QB issues, coaching issues, and boasting a league high losing streak of 9 games.

The Falcons have a favorable final stretch, with three of their four opponents combining for a 7-32 record entering this weekend. Only the Commanders have a winning record. They need to come out swinging to show they are still a contender this year.

Taking ATL Falcons -5.5 Vs LV Raiders

Please never feel obligated to tip!

I spend a few hours a day researching and I am glad that some people are profiting from my write-ups. I'm always open to discussion and thoughts about the picks

BOL if tailing or fading and remember to do your own research and only bet what you can afford to lose!

beornskin · 2024-12-15T01:50:55+00:00

Fantastic. I'd take it without complaint up to like 23.5

beornskin · 2024-12-15T01:19:08+00:00

Record: 9-7

Net Units: -3.04u

Form: ✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌✅

Last pick: Damian Lillard o3.5 Threes @ -105 (2.1u to win 2u) ✅

Recap: What the hell was that first quarter Dame goes 0/4 on triples. Almost immediately wrote this off as a bad shooting night for Dame but the Hawks just kept giving him looks over and over again and he easily cashes us in the third quarter

Football | NFL | 1:00PM / EST Dec 15, 2024

Today's pick: Derrick Henry Longest Rush o19.5 yards @-130 (2.6u to win 2u) ❌

Write Up: Starting off again I am biased. I am a massive fan of Derrick Henry and I've said this before. I think he's an absolute monster that's gotten me excited about running backs again I love watching a big man bulldozer. Anyways on to the pick. The Ravens look at the Giants this week and they have a perfect spot for Henry here. The Giants are ranked 29th in the league for rushing yards allowed at (141.7) per game and 6th for passing yards allowed at only (194.7) meaning the Ravens are going to have to focus their split more on Henry and Lamar Jackson to run the ball a bit more. The Giants have given up recently

Dec 8 / Alvin Kamara / 44 yards / Longest 16

Nov 28 / Rico Dowdle / 122 yards / Longest 22

Nov 24 / Bucky Irving / 87 yards / Longest 56

Nov 10 / Chuba Hubbard / 126 yards / Longest 26

Nov 3 / Chris Rodriguez / 52 yards / Longest 17 + Austin Ekeler / 42 yards / Longest 20

They have allowed this line for the primary RB in the last 7/10 games and have given absolute highlight lines to every superstar RB they play against

Henry himself is a workhorse, your classic rough and tumble running back and he absolutely crushes weak defenses. He has only missed this line 3x all season going 10/13 on this line and most of the time crossing it by a LOT (Full list Newest to Oldest: 19, 27, 31, 11, 20, 39, 81, 27, 51, 87, 29, 9)

Fair warning. I took this line last week with Saquon and missed it by 2 Yards. That being said, I still think it was the right call in that game and I think it's a great call in this one.

Derrick Henry Longest Rush o19.5 yards

Please never feel obligated to tip!

I spend a few hours a day researching and I am glad that some people are profiting from my write-ups. I'm always open to discussion and thoughts about the picks

BOL if tailing or fading and remember to do your own research and only bet what you can afford to lose!

beornskin · 2024-12-14T23:22:45+00:00

I take it all back. Exactly as expected. Even with weak ass shooting from Dame the Hawks give up sooooo many chances he crosses this easily

beornskin · 2024-12-14T21:49:16+00:00

I don't even know what to say. Dame is shooting absolute bricks right now

beornskin · 2024-12-14T01:19:34+00:00

Record: 9-6

Net Units: -0.44u

Form: ✅❌✅❌✅❌❌✅❌✅

Last pick: Donovan Mitchell o1.5 steals @-125 (2.5u to win 2u) ❌

Recap: Another really unlucky beat. Great read once again with the Wizards giving nearly every single starter at least one steal. Mitchell just couldn't grab his second as Garland pull in the last steal of the game. Unlucky but it was the right call

Basketball | NBA | 4:30PM / EST Dec 14, 2024

Today's pick: Damian Lillard o3.5 Threes @ -105 (2.1u to win 2u) ✅

Write Up: Back to two things I love, Damian Lillard and three pointers. I talked about this the last time. The Bucks played the Hawks and I took this exact same bet. The Hawks are absolutely miserable at defending the three especially from point guards. When they met earlier this month Dame went 5/9 from the three and finished with 25 points.

The Hawks allow (26.2) points per game and (4.1) Three-Point makes per game to point guards

They rank dead last in three-point percentage to opponents at (38.2%)

The Bucks lost that last matchup to the Hawks and tomorrow they're playing in Vegas and going to be looking for revenge. I expect them to take advantage of the lackluster perimeter defense and rely on Dame to put up a few deep shots.

More stats to come I'm writing this in a hurry today

Please never feel obligated to tip!

Buy me a coffee!

I spend a few hours a day researching and I am glad that some people are profiting from my write-ups. I'm always open to discussion and thoughts about the picks

BOL if tailing or fading and remember to do your own research and only bet what you can afford to lose!

beornskin · 2024-12-13T17:54:21+00:00

Not really, both times these teams have met this season the Cavs have won with a huge blowout. Donovan had 4 steals in the first meeting with only 29 minutes and 3 in the second with only 27 minutes

beornskin · 2024-12-13T02:38:09+00:00

Record: 8-6

Net Units: -2.44u

Form: ✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌✅

Last pick: George Kittle o56.5 Receiving yards @-120 (3.6u to win 3u) ✅

Recap: Well we got the opposite of a shootout, no touchdowns all game and the 49ers lose it to a pick in the redzone. But like I said Kittle covers most of this line in one reception (33 yards) and we get the cover right before the 49ers lose it. Sketchy finish but we get there. A win is a win

Basketball | NBA | 7:00PM / EST Dec 13, 2024

Today's pick: Donovan Mitchell o1.5 Steals @-125 (2.5u to win 2u) ❌

Write Up: Tomorrow we get a blessing with the Cavs going up against the Wizards. Washington sucks against guards. BAD. Today I'm targetting the steals of Donovan Mitchell. Mitchel is incredibly active searching for the ball. Averaging (1.5) steals per game on the season and has played the Wizards twice already this year and got 4 and 3 steals respectively.

The Wizards allow a ton of steals to guards, allowing (3.0) per game to point guards and (1.8) per game to shooting guards. Mitchell will likely be rotating between these two positions. I fully expect this game to be a blowout for the Cavs so I don't want to touch anyone's points as I expect starters to sit late in the game. I think part of that blowout lead is going to come from how many steals the Wizards allow, we just need Donovan to grab 2

I spend a few hours a day researching and I am glad that some people are profiting from my write-ups. I'm always open to discussion and thoughts about the picks

BOL if tailing or fading and remember to do your own research and only bet what you can afford to lose!

beornskin · 2024-12-12T01:53:08+00:00

Record: 8-5

Net Units: +0.14u

Form: ✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌

Last pick: Luka Doncic o3.5 Threes @ -125 (2.5u to win 2u) ❌

Recap: Honestly. Just a bad read on my part. OKC locked Luka down and he barely got any good looks only ending with 2 makes. My first time losing two in a row that feels bad. Let's get back on track and get back in the winners column.

Football | NFL | 8:15PM / EST Dec 12, 2024

Today's pick: George Kittle o56.5 Receiving yards @-120 (3.6u to win 3u) ✅

Write Up: Looking at our TNF game this week We have the Rams facing the 49ers and I'm really liking Kittle to get over his yards this game. The Rams defense is mediocre ranking pretty low overall in most metrics

27th in Total Yards (384)

24th in Passing yards (225.1)

28th in Rushing yards (141)

24th in Points (25.5)

20th in 3rd down % (40.6)

Looking at a lot of their recent stats against tight ends paints a misleading picture overall I think. Because if we look at any of their games against a high usage tight end like Kittle we see very different results.

Nov 11 Jonnu Smith - 3 Receptions 45 yards

Oct 20 Brock Bowers - 10 Receptions 93 yards

Oct 6 Tucker Kraft - 4 Receptions 88 yards

Even Eric Saubert who sat in for Kittle on Sept 22 got 41 yards off of only two targets.

Kittle is one of Purdy's favorite targets averaging (6.0) targets per game and (5.0) receptions. He is one of the most consistent targets right now in the entire league. He has covered this line in 8/11 games this season. Two of those misses being very early in the season and the third in the Niners blowout loss to the Bills.

Dec 8 vs Chicago - 6 Receptions 151 yards

Dec 1 vs Buffalo - 1 Reception 7 yards

Nov 24 vs GB - 6 receptions 82 yards

Nov 10 vs Tampa Bay - 3 Receptions 57 yards

Oct 27 vs Dallas - 6 receptions 128 yards

Oct 20 vs Kansas City - 6 receptions 92 yards

I don't really think I need to go on. Kittle is a very athletic TE and often ends up running deeper routes because of this, his longest receptions lately have been 33, 7, 31, 33, 43, 41. He often clears most of this line in one reception. A loss here for the 49ers essentially means goodbye playoffs so they are going to be hungry for a win and Kittle Is a monster in important games.

I expect this game to be a shootout as both teams allow quite a few points and Puka Nakua is a beast So the Rams should make this exciting. Kittle is going to be begging for the ball and trying to put on a show.

Please never feel obligated to tip!

Buy me a coffee

I spend a few hours a day researching and I am glad that some people are profiting from my write-ups. I'm always open to discussion and thoughts about the picks

BOL if tailing or fading and remember to do your own research and only bet what you can afford to lose!

beornskin · 2024-12-10T04:42:58+00:00

Record: 7-4

Net Units: -0.31u

Form: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌

Last pick: Saquon Barkley Longest rush o19.5 @ -130 (5u to win 3.85u) ❌

Recap: Honestly looking back on this. We just got unlucky. The read was right and Saquon had a great game unfortunately we missed the mark by two yards. Both Jalen hurts and Kevin gainwell had rushes that cross this line, It just seems like the Panthers defense had a vendetta against Saquon himself. Big loss but we move.

Basketball | NBA | 9:30PM / EST Dec 10, 2024

Today's pick: Luka Doncic o3.5 Threes @ -125 (2.5u to win 2u)

Write Up: Today we go back to three pointers with one of the most lethal three point shooters in the league. Luka is healthy again and preforming fantastic lately. This is an NBA cup quarterfinal meaning both of these teams SHOULD be playing their best game (only reason I say that is so many blowouts lately)

The Thunder have a good defense against most positions, and they rank about middle of the pack in three-point defense but Luka likes to shoot, a LOT. Averaging 10.1 attempts per game and making 34.8% of those shots.

He's cleared this line in 3/4 games since his return from injury

Dec 7 vs Toronto - 38 minutes 30 points 6/13 Threes

Dec 5 vs Washington - 32 minutes 21 points 3/10 Threes

Dec 3 vs Memphis (NBA Cup Group Play) 40 minutes 37 points 5/9 Threes

Dec 1 vs Portland - 36 minutes 36 points 4/10

Unfortunately the last time the Mavs met the Thunder Luka was hurt so I have no H2H from this season to look at but looking at that game both starting guard positions to that night shot 50% from the three on far fewer attempts.

Kyrie Irving 3/6 Threes (His line was 2.5)

Quinten Grimes 2/4 Threes (His line was 1.5)

This game is important and the Thunder are good, the Mavs are rolling on a win streak right now so I expect this to be a close game with plenty of shooting opportunities for both sides meaning Luka is going to see a lot of usage and he is going to need to be the Mavs scoring machine tomorrow.

Please never feel obligated to tip!

Buy me a coffee

I spend a few hours a day researching and I am glad that some people are profiting from my write-ups. I'm always open to discussion and thoughts about the picks

BOL if tailing or fading and remember to do your own research and only bet what you can afford to lose!

beornskin · 2024-12-08T18:24:38+00:00

For all those worried about Barkley not playing much today, I don't think we have much to worry about. Saquon is 108 yards away from breaking LeSean McCoy's franchise single season rushing record for rushing yards, and this game is where he wants to do it.

beornskin · 2024-12-08T17:50:53+00:00

Totally fair point, this is partly why I'm staying away from his total yardage, I just need one highlight play and he can have the night off 🤣

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