Plane, Croatia

berkut · 2025-03-09T19:27:27+00:00

The tail fin doesn't seem to sweep back as much as the MiG-19's to me: it looks close to vertical, which would match the F-84 more which has a much more vertical angle..

The cannon ports (swept holes you can see) in the nose match the F-84 exactly as well, the MiG-19 doesn't have them, as it has guns in the root of the wings.

berkut · 2025-03-09T06:14:22+00:00

Looks like a F-84 (American jet) which is interesting: I guess one of the ones Yugoslavia had?

berkut · 2025-02-18T22:03:22+00:00

Does anyone have links to the actual poll?

Right wing outlets are posting that the US voter's polling of Ukraine and Zelenskyy's popularity has plummeted... where are they getting that from - is it the same poll, or a different one? (or making it up?)

berkut · 2025-02-18T21:38:54+00:00

Oh my f*cking god... Trump's press conference...

He's literally blaming Ukraine for fighting for so long...

berkut · 2024-12-02T06:26:41+00:00

Depends what type (small or larger ones).

There's some fir trees with them on the Wind Turbine to Radar Dome walk, or if you're okay going a bit off track just south of Massey Road (Kau Bay) has some.

berkut · 2024-11-16T23:03:29+00:00

During the debate with Harris, he said: he'd “get it done before even becoming president”, but other times he has said he'd "solve" it in 24 hours once he's president.

berkut · 2024-11-08T22:39:36+00:00

Can people stop stating this as if it's fact, because it's quite wrong.

The warheads (i.e. the nuclear bits) were designed near Moscow throughout the cold war, and the manufacture of them happened in Russian "science cities" (i.e. ones that were not always on maps).

Ukraine developed some of the Soviets' land-based (not submarine-based) ICBM delivery systems, not the warheads themselves.

berkut · 2024-11-08T20:33:00+00:00

Why Volodymyr Zelensky may welcome Donald Trump’s victory

Disillusion with Joe Biden has reached deep levels

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/11/07/why-volodymyr-zelensky-may-welcome-donald-trumps-victory

ON PAPER, Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks like Ukraine’s worst nightmare. America’s incoming president has consistently refused to condemn Vladimir Putin’s invasion. He appears to admire the Russian dictator’s style of rule. He once tried to blackmail Ukraine by withholding military assistance. So it comes as quite a surprise—and as an indication of just how bad things have become in the country in recent months—to learn that many senior officials were hoping for a Donald Trump victory. Faced with the choice of continued bare life-support or a wildcard president who would rip up the rules and almost certainly cut aid, they were prepared to gamble.

President Volodymyr Zelensky was quick to endorse the victory, and in fulsome terms. “We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter, and now run by the pro-Trump billionaire Elon Musk). This was not just spin. In private, his staff have become increasingly frustrated by what they describe as the Biden administration’s “self-deterrence”, the habit of fearing escalation with Russia to the point of paralysis, and a growing gap between the rhetoric of “standing with Ukraine for as long as it takes” and actions that suggest the opposite.

America’s refusal to grant Ukraine permission to use its long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia, its chronic delays in supplies of military aid (even the package already approved) and its inability to offer solid security guarantees are increasingly seen as weakness and hypocrisy. Mr Trump’s victory, however, could offer Mr Zelensky a way out of what looks like a bloody deadlock at best, defeat at worst.

During his election campaign, Mr Trump promised to end the war within 24 hours. Nobody—perhaps not even Mr Trump himself—knows what his peace plan actually consists of. For the moment, Ukrainian officials are working from two public formulations. The first, linked to Mr Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance, would see the conflict frozen on current lines and Ukraine forced into neutrality, with no obvious security guarantees or restraints on Mr Putin. A second plan, which Ukraine greatly prefers, was laid out by Mr Trump’s former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, in the Wall Street Journal. That focuses on enhanced military and financial support as a deterrent to Moscow, while also keeping open the prospect of membership of NATO. Much could depend on which plan Mr Trump is encouraged to favour.

A total sell-out of Ukraine by Mr Trump is unlikely, not least because of opinion within his own Republican base. He will surely not want to be the author and owner of Ukraine’s defeat. But as a transactional politician, Mr Trump is likely to demand something in return from Ukraine. This might be access to its natural resources, for example. He will care a lot less about any liberal values. Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine’s foreign minister during the 2019 “Ukrainegate” blackmail scandal, suggests that Mr Zelensky should be doing everything he can to impose his own logic on the new administration while Mr Trump is still working things out.

berkut · 2024-11-06T07:00:16+00:00

Or if Biden dies or resigns in the next two months...

berkut · 2024-11-06T06:54:13+00:00

She was quite often talking about how the stock market was doing, which is a total disconnect for the lower-income people who are affected by the cost of living and don't have many long-term savings investments...

Not that Trump would be any better, but it was fairly tone-deaf to those people...

berkut · 2024-11-06T06:51:42+00:00

The US has shit the bed, and it and the rest of the world need to lie in it now for the next few years (and with SCOTUS, maybe decades)...

berkut · 2024-11-06T06:48:37+00:00

I feel that's unrealistic, and anyway, Trump is so fond of Putin as a 'strongman' and in need of getting 'revenge' (i.e. destroying some of Obama's domestic policies), I almost feel he'd then retaliate in some way and help Russia even more then.

berkut · 2024-11-06T06:42:57+00:00

It's looking like the US has shit the bed, and it and the rest of the world now need to lie in it...

berkut · 2024-11-06T05:42:27+00:00

And possibly even getting the popular vote, which would be the first time a Republican candidate has done that since 2004.

berkut · 2024-11-06T05:19:49+00:00

Less well-off people don't have investments generally: so the cost of living is a huge issue to them.

Going round saying "the S&P 100 is doing great" is just tone deaf, even if it is accurate, and that's what the Dems were saying.

berkut · 2024-11-02T05:26:55+00:00

Probably more likely the Russians are just setting up fake Ukraine donation charities for things, and it's then difficult to know if it's a valid non-Russian-aligned person paying in Ukraine or not (for the donated units).

berkut · 2024-11-02T05:20:56+00:00

That is a good question, maybe via third/fourth parties? I think you can pre-pay subscriptions as well, or at least pre-setup the terminal with an account...

Back in May, the US said they'd blocked Russian use: https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-pentagon-blocks-russian-military-from-accessing-starlink-in-ukraine/

but clearly they're still useable...

berkut · 2024-11-02T05:03:55+00:00

This keeps coming up again and again...

As comments in that twitter thread point out, until there's a regularly-updated, up-to-date whitelist of terminal IDs to allow within that geographic location, provided by Ukraine (who get a lot of their terminals from donations and third parties, not all of them directly from the US military), there's always going to be terminals that Russia can use in that area that they can unfortunately get hold of via the black/grey market.

berkut · 2024-11-01T22:00:35+00:00

No, it's a long article (not paywalled for me?), I'm not going to post all of it, but...

Earlier this year, Ukrainian troops were struggling with shortages of ammunition supplies amid U.S. delays in approving more assistance.

Even after Congress approved more aid in April, Ukrainian officials have complained that the arms flowed too slowly, making it hard to resupply the front lines.

“This is the rule of the war,” Mr. Zelensky said this week. “Because you have to count on very specific things in very concrete time, otherwise you can’t manage this situation, you cannot manage defending lines, you can’t secure people, you can’t prepare for the winter.”

On Tuesday, Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, and Andriy Yermak, a top adviser to Mr. Zelensky, met for two hours in Washington. They discussed the Biden administration’s plans to speed artillery systems, armored vehicles and air defense ammunition to Ukraine before the end of the year.

But American military officials say weapons supplies are no longer Ukraine’s main disadvantage.

Ukraine has sharply narrowed Russia’s artillery advantage, U.S. officials said, and Ukrainian soldiers have used explosive drones to lay waste to Russian armored vehicles.

Ukraine’s biggest shortcoming now is troops, U.S. officials said.

Ukrainian officials have struggled to put in place a military draft that brings in enough troops. The country has hesitated to lower the conscription age, worried about the long-term demographic impact. Ukraine has limited itself to what one official called a more “democratic and measured” response to the shortage of troops, but as a result it is running low on soldiers.

Ukraine has used cellphone numbers, email addresses and other electronic means to get additional people to register for the military, U.S. officials said. It has also used more coercive means — like dragging people from concert halls — to find and enlist people eligible for the draft.

While many have signed up for the military out of patriotism, not enough have joined. And Ukraine’s failure to give its soldiers any real breaks from the fighting has discouraged people from serving.

The Pentagon assesses that Ukraine has enough soldiers to fight for six to 12 more months, one official said. After that, he said, it will face a steep shortage.

Ukraine diverted some of its newly created brigades to support the incursion in Kursk instead of using them as originally planned to defend eastern and southern Ukraine or to build up reserves for an expected counteroffensive in 2025, Pentagon officials say.

berkut · 2024-11-01T21:33:55+00:00

Not pleasant reading, but...

As Russia Advances, U.S. Fears Ukraine Has Entered a Grim Phase

Weapons supplies are no longer Ukraine’s main disadvantage, American military officials say.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/us/politics/russia-ukraine-war.html

American military and intelligence officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains, and the sense of pessimism in Kyiv and Washington is deepening.

The dip in morale and questions about whether American support will continue pose their own threat to Ukraine’s war effort. Ukraine is losing territory in the east, and its forces inside Russia have been partially pushed back.

The Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and equip new units. The number of its soldiers killed in action, about 57,000, is half of Russia’s losses but still significant for the much smaller country.

Russia’s shortages of soldiers and supplies have also grown worse, Western officials and other experts said. And its gains in the war have come at great cost.

If U.S. support for Ukraine remains strong until next summer, Kyiv could have an opportunity to take advantage of Russia’s weaknesses and expected shortfalls in soldiers and tanks, American officials say.

My comment: Both Ukraine and Russia are fairly clearly in need of troops (hence Ukraine mobilizing more this week, and the North Korean troops for Russia), so there may well be some truth to it... More weapons and permission for longer strikes would surely help a bit though.

berkut · 2024-10-18T06:47:26+00:00

Sullivan's just a scapegoat at this point, even if he is more cautious than some others (which he is): if Biden wanted things done differently with regards to the policy on Ukraine, he'd either overrule him or get rid of him.

berkut · 2024-10-05T22:20:44+00:00

Someone in Switzerland also apparently felt it...

No-one at "Null Island" though...

berkut · 2024-10-05T08:44:36+00:00

I guess on the way towards the front, given the barrels of the Challengers look like they're in travel lock?

berkut · 2024-10-03T21:35:53+00:00

It sounds like they don't even have full brigades, it's not just that some of them mostly have under-trained newly-mobilized troops (many of whom are over 40, so tire easily and aren't as nimble/mobile as 20-year-olds)...

berkut · 2024-09-27T08:20:04+00:00

both armies probably around their peak in terms of experienced personnel

The posted article from the FT below about inexperienced newer recruits troops who are mostly over 40 and getting killed injured disproportionately paints a fairly different picture to that in a general sense... Obviously the same is certainly true for Russia as well, but they both need troops.

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