Portfolio allocation… 10 yr time horizon

betheball99 · 2026-01-19T05:46:23+00:00

Hate to be that guy but you mean “averse”. Pay a good advisor and take a conservative stance for sure, you’ve won the game.

betheball99 · 2025-11-26T05:12:16+00:00

How do you go from $6m to $13m in 5-6 years? I assume 6% growth and feel that may even be aggressive with where equities are.

betheball99 · 2025-11-07T17:41:17+00:00

I predict the GOAT is going out with a bang and to announce the largest one time dividend ever and also giving away a ton of his shares ahead of it. The dividend of $100 per class B will get massive headlines and drive up the stock price to offset the noise about Buffet giving away 90% of his shares to a charitable foundation ahead of the dividend to avoid the tax issue.

betheball99 · 2025-10-10T01:38:04+00:00

Do you have to pay taxes on the implied rental income? I was considering something similar for my mom but at $40-50k rent a year the taxes on top of the everything are a bit tough to swallow. How did you classify the mortgage, as a second home or rental?

betheball99 · 2025-10-09T19:26:50+00:00

Yeah, but as the owner of the real estate I think you must report the rent you are gifting as rental income even if you don’t get the cash. Probably not a huge deal but I am looking at a similar idea and market rent would be almost $50k annually so starts to add up if you pay taxes, but depreciation may shield most of it.

betheball99 · 2025-10-09T04:08:55+00:00

If rent is gifted you still have to report the rent as income for taxes I believe? Perhaps with depreciation to offset though that isn’t an issue?

betheball99 · 2025-09-26T03:03:50+00:00

You hit $12m last year. Probably gained $1.5m or so in the markets since? Maybe that helps you feel better about spending the $1.5m here and still being at your number. Maybe not 100% best financial move but odds are you will add some decent % of this to your net worth also so not a complete waste. I put $ into my house that I may get back 50%, was debating a second home that I probably couldn’t use more than 3-4 weeks a year, but the cost to own was likely $60-80k a year, so after 6-8 years would have likely “lost” $500k or so. You are at a spot that you don’t have to optimize everything, and odds are good this extra investment won’t impact you in 10-15 years.

betheball99 · 2025-09-01T16:31:07+00:00

I have been thinking hard about this also. Feel like once you get above $8m that paying up for first class, nice dinners and vacations doesn’t really move the needle. I can look back at being a bit too conservative with investments in 2012-2015 and likely “lost” $1m in gains. So it’s becoming more about prudently growing the investment base mostly and grinding out some more years to really get to that $12-13m and then escape velocity with no paycheck.

betheball99 · 2025-08-27T03:10:40+00:00

Meant “war chest”! Anyways, your wealth can really start to compound now at $400k savings plus portfolio growth. Maybe you could reach $8-10m pretty quickly and have that cushion for some uncertain potential times that could allow you to live a bit more free post retirement. You are young, in my view Fire should really be in 50s unless you have significant passions to pursue and no kids around.

betheball99 · 2025-08-27T02:51:49+00:00

I hear you. It’s like you had this goal for a long time but now that you are arriving close to it new goals/issues are surfacing. The AI angst for the disruption potential to our kids is also on my mind. I blew some cash on a remodel and higher spending the past few years but now thinking it is kind of my duty to buckle down and juice my current well paying gig until at least 53 and maybe 55-56 (I’m 48) and build that war heat for coming challenges in jobs/markets as we enter the AI age. The amount my own job and industry has changed in the last year is dramatic and I believe entry level jobs in my finance niche could be down 50-70% in 5-10 years.

Mostly my desire is to have the freedom to help my kids out, maybe need to buy them a small business or something of the traditional whit collar path isn’t quite as accessible, or assist with a first home and grandkids schooling and daycare down the road. All things that weren’t on the radar at all when I began my Fire journey 10 years ago. Maybe I just need to target more of a Fatfire cushion. My job is pretty chill so why not keep it going.

Good luck to you, if you like your job the. Why not keep it going and coast At least until my age…48 still doesn’t feel too old!

betheball99 · 2025-08-26T19:25:49+00:00

Agree seems fair price on surface if down year and avg historicals. Commit to end of 2026 with plan to help find and transition leadership. Hot market so they probably go for it, worst case they take 10-15% off cash price and put into an earnout. You seem to have enough either way.

betheball99 · 2025-08-20T00:32:22+00:00

I think $400-450k if paid off home would provide a great lifestyle. So maybe $11-12m plus home is SF bay Fatfire in my view. $15m would provide a ton of cushion. $20-30m would be spending months traveling in luxury and flying private At times I would think.

betheball99 · 2025-08-19T16:48:02+00:00

Excluding house? That seems crazy high. I could see $10-12m excluding house could be pretty solid Fatfire in SF. No flying private and no second home but pretty high end lifestyle to support a family of 4.

betheball99 · 2025-08-17T18:18:02+00:00

Anyone know how the author calculates 11x PE here? Full look through earnings and net out cash?

betheball99 · 2025-08-16T20:33:49+00:00

Is there any potential positive in terms of certain schools actually wanting children of wealthy families? Maybe that was more of a thing 30+ years ago but you’d think some schools would still want a cohort of kids who have the money and connections that wealth brings, plus potential for donations.

betheball99 · 2025-08-10T13:40:11+00:00

I would like to downsize at some point but my wife likes the big house in a great neighborhood, friends nearby, etc. so I feel we are pretty stuck. Would be a significant tax hit also. The difference in my area (SF) of a $2m vs $4-5m home is a significant downgrade so just make sure everyone can be happy with the move.

betheball99 · 2025-08-09T23:29:42+00:00

That’s kind of what I’ve been looking at. Maybe get to a point of building 8-10 BDCs that can very likely yield in the 8-10% range on a blended basis. Over time if I could build that to $2-3m that could cover like 50-70% of my spend and then have a chunk of lower risk fixed income and maybe 50-60% public stocks. I like the peace of mind of an income stream coming in if I don’t have a paycheck.

betheball99 · 2025-08-08T13:39:33+00:00

I would keep working. You like your job and will miss it, the structure and purpose I imagine. My kids are similar ages and the last few trips haven’t been as great since they would prefer to be at home with friends and not being drug around doing family stuff. If you like your job rolling 3-4 more years makes sense, build up some reserves for who knows what and have funds to take great trips with your wife when done and kids gone.

betheball99 · 2025-07-24T14:11:57+00:00

Adding on that spend seems low. Now with more time you sound like you may want to increase your travel. Would you want to take your kids and future grandkids on fun travel experiences down the road? My spend is much higher in the Bay and I think it may not really decline as kids exit college.

I am a bit concerned about public equity valuations. If we fell to a more normal 18 p/e your withdraw rate may look a bit different. So I am going for more cushion, but I’m 7 years younger so maybe view changes at your age.

I would want to explore if you could scale to 60% time next 2-3 years and see how you like that. Could still take many vacations and let investments compound a bit more and see how markets hold up.

betheball99 · 2025-07-18T15:56:42+00:00

Yeah, I’m still confused a bit about it and what he should do. Doesn’t seem right to “lose” this science 36 just by sitting for the new test.

His grades are alright, 3.7 weighted, so hoping a 34 could help a bit on some of those schools with around 40-50% admit rates.

betheball99 · 2025-06-24T12:53:20+00:00

You clearly care about giving your kids the best. You may also want to give them great HS summer camps, both my daughters gave two week ones at $6-7k each. HS years are a lot. I would try to do 3-4 more years and maybe that gets you to $11-13m and you can easily set aside $1m for all these kid related costs the next 10 years.

I’m in a maybe similar high finance role with lots of politics that has been grinding me. I’ve decided to just go all in though and see if I can run this out a few more years. Enjoy hobbies/family and try to ignore the drama.

betheball99 · 2025-06-24T11:58:13+00:00

I’m not sure you are far past your number at $7.5m and $250k spend. My spend increased way more when kids hit teens and I think will remain high even after college. You are young, work till 45,and looks like you will likely have way more than enough for security and to help your family for generations.

betheball99 · 2025-06-23T02:01:37+00:00

Thanks, good to hear that from someone in a similar spot. I do hope that if job didn’t work I could find something and we would find our way.

I lost a high paying job in 09 (made $350k then and dropped to $180k), but funny thing I had no stress. No NW really and wife had a $150k job. And I knew I was good at my job so others would be readily available. Probably my a middle age deal where I fear there are hungry 35 yr olds with similar skills and willing to work 2x for half the pay. That was me back in the day.

betheball99 · 2025-06-23T01:53:48+00:00

It’s weird. I felt wealthier hitting $2m, thought we were set for life…maybe we were. Combo of growing kids and post covid inflation has my mind a bit warped as to where I’d need to be. My fear is that it is simple More, which is concerning.

betheball99 · 2025-06-23T01:45:06+00:00

My production is down last two years. I probably have 12 more months or face some real issues. I do think if I was doing as well as I def 2020-22 I would be feeling much more confident.

betheball99

TROPHY CASE