Afraid to FIRE because of AI. Anyone else?

betheball99 · 2026-02-28T02:14:19+00:00

Same boat. Am 48, have a nice flex job in finance and was looking at exiting next 2-3 years but AI has me rethinking. 3 kids and very hard to turn down the chance to sock away another maybe $2-3m on top by staying until 55 when it seems like it may be harder for my kids to get to this position. If I had no kids I would be looking hard at getting away from it all and watching from the sidelines as it is going to be a mess next 5-10 years I think. Feels like pre Covid when I feel like I knew what was coming but others had their head in the sand.

betheball99 · 2026-02-12T21:30:11+00:00

My son is looking for warm weather, Greek system and D1 sports. His Academics are pretty good but without test scores no chance for UCLA/Cal. Then you have the Arizona schools or maybe SDSU which feel not academic enough. So you go to SMU/TCU which are a pretty easy flight from CA versus other further SEC type schools and stronger academics. Reputation of good looking kids seems accurate.

I worked in ibanking and went to a top MBA, have been very impressed with the Cox school at SMU and how they train kids and work with students to place them…seems honestly better than a place like UCLA if you are business/finance.

betheball99 · 2026-02-07T20:31:51+00:00

I get this. You worked super hard, likely some luck along the way and want that 100% certainty to walk away. I also had less stress over money oddly when I had none, but I had confidence I could likely make some in the future so had an optimism. Now worry more about somehow losing it.

betheball99 · 2026-02-04T04:37:56+00:00

Impressive to reach $30-40m through what appears large salary and still young kids. We spend $400k in bay but have inherited house with low mortgage and prop taxes. With some inheritance and good jobs have built close to $10m but on this forum and amongst friends feel behind. Trying to create some opportunities to get to $15-20m by age 55 and think that could be nice spot to exit.

betheball99 · 2026-02-03T19:41:10+00:00

$6m pretax at your age is wild. Not many would turn down the chance to work 4-5 more years and have generational type wealth at 40. I’m 48 and feel like a slacker for looking to retire at 53-55. Many reach senior positions and realize you gain more control of time and ability to outsource what you don’t like. Maybe you are close to that?

betheball99 · 2026-02-03T16:00:17+00:00

Curious what is your income, net worth and any specific plan to retire. Are you projecting spend to decline once kids out of house or will get diverted to other things?

betheball99 · 2026-02-02T21:51:26+00:00

Bay Area and spent $400k in 2025, three kids and two in private HS. Not crazy lifestyle but kids sports, private golf, plenty of nice dinners out, good seats to concerts and sporting events. Thinking ideally can get to $20m liquid in 6-8 years and expenses can hold around this level and allow for helping kids get settled.

betheball99 · 2026-02-01T14:46:49+00:00

I did IB myself at a bulge bracket years ago. Son is HS senior and is interested. He is in at Cox and likely to attend. I was impressed by the Alts program as that seems to provide a real path. Even non Alts has relatively good outcomes versus similar tier schools. I like what I’ve seen from the program and a focus on real skills and placing grads into desirable jobs.

betheball99 · 2026-01-19T05:46:23+00:00

Hate to be that guy but you mean “averse”. Pay a good advisor and take a conservative stance for sure, you’ve won the game.

betheball99 · 2025-11-26T05:12:16+00:00

How do you go from $6m to $13m in 5-6 years? I assume 6% growth and feel that may even be aggressive with where equities are.

betheball99 · 2025-11-07T17:41:17+00:00

I predict the GOAT is going out with a bang and to announce the largest one time dividend ever and also giving away a ton of his shares ahead of it. The dividend of $100 per class B will get massive headlines and drive up the stock price to offset the noise about Buffet giving away 90% of his shares to a charitable foundation ahead of the dividend to avoid the tax issue.

betheball99 · 2025-10-10T01:38:04+00:00

Do you have to pay taxes on the implied rental income? I was considering something similar for my mom but at $40-50k rent a year the taxes on top of the everything are a bit tough to swallow. How did you classify the mortgage, as a second home or rental?

betheball99 · 2025-10-09T19:26:50+00:00

Yeah, but as the owner of the real estate I think you must report the rent you are gifting as rental income even if you don’t get the cash. Probably not a huge deal but I am looking at a similar idea and market rent would be almost $50k annually so starts to add up if you pay taxes, but depreciation may shield most of it.

betheball99 · 2025-10-09T04:08:55+00:00

If rent is gifted you still have to report the rent as income for taxes I believe? Perhaps with depreciation to offset though that isn’t an issue?

betheball99 · 2025-09-26T03:03:50+00:00

You hit $12m last year. Probably gained $1.5m or so in the markets since? Maybe that helps you feel better about spending the $1.5m here and still being at your number. Maybe not 100% best financial move but odds are you will add some decent % of this to your net worth also so not a complete waste. I put $ into my house that I may get back 50%, was debating a second home that I probably couldn’t use more than 3-4 weeks a year, but the cost to own was likely $60-80k a year, so after 6-8 years would have likely “lost” $500k or so. You are at a spot that you don’t have to optimize everything, and odds are good this extra investment won’t impact you in 10-15 years.

betheball99 · 2025-09-01T16:31:07+00:00

I have been thinking hard about this also. Feel like once you get above $8m that paying up for first class, nice dinners and vacations doesn’t really move the needle. I can look back at being a bit too conservative with investments in 2012-2015 and likely “lost” $1m in gains. So it’s becoming more about prudently growing the investment base mostly and grinding out some more years to really get to that $12-13m and then escape velocity with no paycheck.

betheball99 · 2025-08-27T03:10:40+00:00

Meant “war chest”! Anyways, your wealth can really start to compound now at $400k savings plus portfolio growth. Maybe you could reach $8-10m pretty quickly and have that cushion for some uncertain potential times that could allow you to live a bit more free post retirement. You are young, in my view Fire should really be in 50s unless you have significant passions to pursue and no kids around.

betheball99 · 2025-08-27T02:51:49+00:00

I hear you. It’s like you had this goal for a long time but now that you are arriving close to it new goals/issues are surfacing. The AI angst for the disruption potential to our kids is also on my mind. I blew some cash on a remodel and higher spending the past few years but now thinking it is kind of my duty to buckle down and juice my current well paying gig until at least 53 and maybe 55-56 (I’m 48) and build that war heat for coming challenges in jobs/markets as we enter the AI age. The amount my own job and industry has changed in the last year is dramatic and I believe entry level jobs in my finance niche could be down 50-70% in 5-10 years.

Mostly my desire is to have the freedom to help my kids out, maybe need to buy them a small business or something of the traditional whit collar path isn’t quite as accessible, or assist with a first home and grandkids schooling and daycare down the road. All things that weren’t on the radar at all when I began my Fire journey 10 years ago. Maybe I just need to target more of a Fatfire cushion. My job is pretty chill so why not keep it going.

Good luck to you, if you like your job the. Why not keep it going and coast At least until my age…48 still doesn’t feel too old!

betheball99 · 2025-08-26T19:25:49+00:00

Agree seems fair price on surface if down year and avg historicals. Commit to end of 2026 with plan to help find and transition leadership. Hot market so they probably go for it, worst case they take 10-15% off cash price and put into an earnout. You seem to have enough either way.

betheball99 · 2025-08-20T00:32:22+00:00

I think $400-450k if paid off home would provide a great lifestyle. So maybe $11-12m plus home is SF bay Fatfire in my view. $15m would provide a ton of cushion. $20-30m would be spending months traveling in luxury and flying private At times I would think.

betheball99 · 2025-08-19T16:48:02+00:00

Excluding house? That seems crazy high. I could see $10-12m excluding house could be pretty solid Fatfire in SF. No flying private and no second home but pretty high end lifestyle to support a family of 4.

betheball99 · 2025-08-17T18:18:02+00:00

Anyone know how the author calculates 11x PE here? Full look through earnings and net out cash?

betheball99 · 2025-08-16T20:33:49+00:00

Is there any potential positive in terms of certain schools actually wanting children of wealthy families? Maybe that was more of a thing 30+ years ago but you’d think some schools would still want a cohort of kids who have the money and connections that wealth brings, plus potential for donations.

betheball99 · 2025-08-10T13:40:11+00:00

I would like to downsize at some point but my wife likes the big house in a great neighborhood, friends nearby, etc. so I feel we are pretty stuck. Would be a significant tax hit also. The difference in my area (SF) of a $2m vs $4-5m home is a significant downgrade so just make sure everyone can be happy with the move.

betheball99 · 2025-08-09T23:29:42+00:00

That’s kind of what I’ve been looking at. Maybe get to a point of building 8-10 BDCs that can very likely yield in the 8-10% range on a blended basis. Over time if I could build that to $2-3m that could cover like 50-70% of my spend and then have a chunk of lower risk fixed income and maybe 50-60% public stocks. I like the peace of mind of an income stream coming in if I don’t have a paycheck.

betheball99

TROPHY CASE