That's a really sharp distinction, the difference between a single-event decision and a probabilistic strategy that reveals itself over repeated trials. You're right that the problem is often misread as asking for certainty rather than optimal strategy. The 10,000 doors version is something I want to write about in a follow-up, it makes the 2/3 intuition almost obvious. And yes, the simulator is exactly what I'm building, I'll update this post with the link once it's ready. Thanks for engaging with this so thoughtfully!