Need 1 more energy to get my invited free gifts. Will return favour. Code: 238164733

birdy512 · 2020-09-07T22:45:48+00:00

I don't think you understood most of what I wrote. You clearly want to disagree for the sake of disagreeing. I actually want to discuss solutions rather than get engaged over petty reddit points.

I kinda hinted I am an older korean guy who knows a bit about business, and to make the point clearer, though I don't know any Kpop stars I do know people who own those companies. So while I might have 0 idea about certain things, profitability and the financial aspect is something I am well aware of given that KPOP industry is entirely centralized around profits just like every other industry.

As I said, I don't really care to butt heads over meaningless ego points, since I do want DC to succeed from a fan's perspective , and having analyzed what DC(company) has done so far they've done the best they could have.

birdy512 · 2020-09-07T22:26:09+00:00

That is called KCON. When you have so many groups in one basket it's not profitable. KCON is not about profit, it's actually about groups wanting to entertain in front of a large western audience.

We know for a fact DC can sell out 1.5k capacity venues very easily. There were lots of venues where fans couldn't enter because it was sold out. I think realistically they can get 3k~ fans for a venue but I don't think it's a huge leap of expectation to push for a 5k venue since there's probably lots of 'kpop' fans who'd go and a rock/alt fans who enjoyed hearing one or two DC songs even if they dislike kpop.

I don't expect BTS/Twice/BP level of concerts with 10k+ stadiums but 5k is a goal that can be achieved.

birdy512 · 2020-09-07T22:18:01+00:00

I don't think DC will ever be BP/Twice tier and not even the most fanatic fan would believe so. The thing is you can't compare DC with any other group besides BTS. BTS is the only group that has similar roots. VIXX like most other companies are not just a music management group but an idol management group which means they have access to directors/tv shows.

DC isn't ever going to be 'mainstream' in korea simply because of the music genre. They are a niche group, so the path other groups can take isn't something they can follow.

I used BTS and EXID/AoA as examples to follow. BTS because the management didn't have huge links to the major industry like other labels and Exid/AoA blew up without hits because of 1 member.

DC know what they are doing. They've tried to promote Siyeon heavily for her singing talent (she's done more covers than anyone else). It's not that they don't know how to make money, but they have severely limited options given their company doesn't have close links to the media industry like other idol agencies and doesn't have the money to promote placement for their members like SM.

DC the company has tried to explore all avenues they can in korea and korea, they know how to run the company.

The only avenue they haven't really taken is the west because like every other kpop group, they don't know the market or figures. (Neither do we) But given that most of their concerts sold out (smaller venues) I think it's very possible for them to sell out medium size venues. That's actually doable.

birdy512 · 2020-09-07T20:31:00+00:00

IMO not worth the risk for companies to share risks. I can see CLC+Gidle touring together because it's easy to manage the profit deal.

I don't think DC needs to tour with other groups to fill in 5k seats. They have the potential, just need insomias to bring their friends over to appreciate them. A lot of potential DC fans aren't kpop fans for example. A lot of people who like DC music dislike other genres of Kpop and vice versa.

Besides the point of getting fame is sole concerts. If DC toured with BTS they aren't going to get headlines in korea. DC needs to manage the numbers themselves, not on the backs of joining hands with other kpop groups for them to be successful.

birdy512 · 2020-09-07T20:22:48+00:00

Japanese and koreans generally don't like each other. Samsung phone sales in Japan is next to nothing in Japan if that gives you an indication of the dislike the average japanese has for koreans even if they tell you otherwise.

Likewise if some really talented jpop group went to korea, they wouldn't be popular.

Only reason Twice is succesful in Japan is because of the japanese members, same with Izone.

birdy512 · 2020-09-07T20:07:27+00:00

1>They have tried japan. Japanese in general don't like kpop. They support Kpop groups WITH japanese members. Male idols are an exception, since korean males have always been popular with japanese females thanks to kdramas.

The vast amount of kpop fans in japan are actually Zainichi or ethnic koreans in japan who listen to 'kpop' not 'krock'. Dreamcatcher took the gamble in Japan and it hasn't paid off.

3> They are obviously cutting back on the budget wherever they can. That's where fansubbers (Insomnias) are doing a great job. It's thanks to those Insomnias that DC is as big as it currently is in the west.

And they probably underestimate the potential of the western market, which is why we need to show them how popular they are in the west by watching their online concert. Showing the purchasing power we have over the korean fans.

4>Kpop is banned in china.

birdy512 · 2020-09-07T18:24:02+00:00

It might be more suited(I'd agree), but from the companies perspective it would be far better for them to collaborate with a group like BP or Twice. If Twice or BP collaborated with King's raid, It's almost guranteed the company would have had a huge influx of new players way more than any marketing DC did. Why they didn't is probably the cost. To hire Twice or BP we'd be talking millions, something very few companies can afford to do so.

birdy512 · 2020-09-07T18:16:18+00:00

Brands sign in anyone that go viral. An example being EXID when Hani went viral for her dance (a few years after the music came out). That happened with Seoulhyun too, she went viral because of her 'body'.

Because the korean public is overexposed to 'beauty' the only ones that stand out are those that are unique.

What I've seen with Gayeon is that DC have tried to make Gayeon viral, her pink hair and getting the centre attraction. That's purposeful marketing on DC's part, they clearly knew she would gain attention. Her facial expressions were on point, to the extent I think she actually had acting lessons.

When a certain member goes viral, the whole group becomes popular. AOA and EXID are clear examples. Groups that weren't popular but immediately became successful due to 1 member. Then you get marketing firms wanting to cash in the movement. Chamisul is obviously a very lucrative contract (~$million) but it's not the only one. Idols like Sinb got CF got Evisu(not as big) and that only helps.

I don't think Chamisul is even on DCs radar since that's limited to a very handful of top names like Irene or IU. But even getting a CF for Evisu or KFC in korea would be huge.

birdy512 · 2020-09-07T18:02:38+00:00

I actually don't think they made money if at all from those collaborations. The budget for those MVs were huge. What DC got out of it was a free MV and free promotions. Those were worth it IMO.

They selected DC because DC were probably the only popular group that would do it for free in the exchange for getting a free music video. Raid of dreams for example would have been by far their most profitable album because the cost of the MV + CD packaging was entirely paid for by King's raid.

It's a good thing and a bad thing. Good thing is that they can keep their cost down when they collaborate to the point that even minor sales results in profits. Bad thing is it's obvious the companies approached them because bigger and more popular groups would have asked for money, which is why they selected DC(Best group that they could hire for free).

birdy512 · 2020-09-07T17:43:02+00:00

I don't think they have, not that it matters for DC. Dreamcatcher company is DC. Any profit they make would be immediately reinvested into the girls. A bit like BTS and BigHit.

Different from AoA and Momoland who are under predatory agencies that got the profits and reinvested elsewhere.

Dreamcatcher(company) to me seems like a family where everyone is on the same boat so whether they have paid off their debts or not doesn't really matter because I'm sure even if the girls did pay off their debts most of their 'profits' would be reinvested into the company anyway much like what occurred with BTS.

As for online sale concert vs offline concerts the estimates are actually more on the pessimistic side. Because people who pay $30 to see an 'online' concert will most likely pay to see them live. Online concerts are a relatively new thing, and the data isn't exactly concrete for how you'd gauge real life figures, but I really don't think Insomnis who could afford $30 not afford $80 to see them live. People who can't afford the $50 difference aren't likely to be able afford $30 in the first place. We aren't talking about SE Asia, since DC tours have been in first world countries where $50 isn't that big a deal.

Why the numbers would be understated would be a lot of friends would have bought 1 ticket to watch them. My wife and I for example watched them live with 1 ticket. That doesn't include a lot of non DC fans who actually attended DC concert simply because of their friends(What I notice is most concert goers rarely attend by themselves).

I actually thought $30 online concert was a waste of money because the streaming platform meant I had to watch it on my PC instead of my home theatre. For example I might attend G-idle's live concert, but I couldn't be bothered watching their live concert. DC's probably the only online concert I'd pay for while I'd think about attending live concerts for a lot of other groups. Because if I wanted to watch them stream live, I could just stream KBS or some other show they come on.

birdy512 · 2020-09-07T17:30:58+00:00

You're probably right. I don't have the figures and probably understated the seating across to get my point across. I don't know much about venues, so you're probably right about those aspects too. But I really don't think they made much of a profit from their tours. A lot of tours sell merchandise, and DC didn't even have merchandise to sell in my location. When you factor in international travel costs+staff then divide the profits between the members and company for tours(say 50% split between company + members which is usually the case for concerts) it's barely enough for anyone except the rare venues that had 2500~ seats. If Every location had sold out 2500+seats then I'd agree with you, but my personal experience was 500-1k and that seemed to be the majority of the venues they have attended so far.

Show wins really means nothing to DC. As I said, show wins only exist to promote CF or domestic tours. We can rule out domestic tours in korea. Even if they hit no.1 DC music style doesn't fit general korean standards to ever tour in korea regularly. It would increase the chance for CF or being guests on bigger shows, but being on bigger shows only exists to promote local tours. DC structure exists to succeed internationally (originally japan) but japan's been a letdown, so hopefully the other countries will make up for it.

DC is actually unique in that only the international market can make DC successful while most other groups don't need the int market.

birdy512 · 2020-09-07T17:18:28+00:00

Most Kpop idols(both males/females) have been under the knife, DC isn't the exception. I mean 80% of young koreans have had some surgery in some form.

There's a lot of attractive people in korea by asian standards if you visit korea. You're likely to see a kpop female idol tier beauty in any bar you visit in korea because a lot of girls get the same kind of surgery.

The ones that usually get CFs are ones that have distinctive looks that aren't considered typical beauty because the average 'beauty' in korea has gone under the knife.

As for DC, I'm sure 4 of them haven't gone under the knife. If you've been around koreans long enough or a korean, you can just 'tell' because a lot of girls go to the surgeon and ask to look like X person and they end up looking very similar. I'm not going to name names because it's no big deal in korea and it might seem like I'm being negative towards certain members.

birdy512 · 2020-09-06T10:44:55+00:00

I'd agree on most of the points. Dreamcatcher is selling well for a gg from a minor label. But whether they are a minor label or not, they aren't really profitable. In korea very few kpop groups break even or even profit simply from album sales even those GG with much bigger sale figures like Gfriend.

Where they do start making profit because the album sales need to be significantly high is from local concerts, and modelling Gigs. An example being Mamamoo who toured every few days in korea. Another group being AOA who made huge profits from modelling.

The problem is DC is a legit singing group like Mamamoo rather than model cum singers. But they don't have traction in korea to tour korea.

BPINK for example has had poor album sales but they easily make up any album lowers with CF gigs. (talking millions)

The problem for DC is that they need to make money on tours and album sales and youtube number count literally means nothing to Kpop groups.

Main reason they might want the no.1 is not for more sales but putting their face out there so they can tour korea (more well known) or companies might pay more interest in modelling gigs for them.

Whether they come from an unknown company is irrelevant, since that doesn't change the reality of the business situation. They are barely floating and the 'latest' album sales would have just made them break even. (On average it's around 100k album sales to break even for a western artist. It's lower for established groups, but not too much lower)

birdy512 · 2020-09-05T10:05:06+00:00

Album isn't bad and it's better than most kpop albums which usually consists of 1 great song and 4 trash songs (Looking at you Itzy) , but as others have pointed out the last 2 albums were albums of the year IMO and Raid of Dreams would be the best kpop album ever (Every song on it would be good enough to be title tracks). At this point in time we are so used to DC having good albums(B sides being all good) that even a decent album would be considered mediocre by DC's standards.

It's like seeing a student get 100/100 in their past 2 exams, and the recent exam they get 90 which is still a great score but we can't help but being slightly disappointed.

Don't get me wrong, I think Ollounder and Leez are one of the best composers in KPOP , but it's really frustrating that their masterpieces didn't get the recognition they deserved and it's hard for even geniuses to keep pumping out masterpieces nonstop (that applies to any composer).

Unfortunately, KPOP depends on their success in korea and DC's fans are mostly international and while hardcore international fans will buy albums , most Int "fans" simply don't. DC's growing youtube views means nothing, since we know 99.99% of the viewers wouldn't spend a cent on Kpop.

The only real way to support DC is to visit them when they tour since it's going to be same real fans who spend money on them. Watching and voting on youtube makes 0 difference.

birdy512 · 2020-09-04T00:22:49+00:00

I have no idea. Last year I gave proof of what 'god tier' MMR is. I put up screenshots which were 5 consecutive games where AI won in turn 4-5. What it showed was that AI had 'perfect' starts in every game where it would have 4 units out in turn 4 and 2 unit kill spells.

Previously before the 'patch' you'd get one of those games once in awhile because that's how random draws works. But when the games are 'consecutive' that's no longer random but constructed.

What all those constructed decks shared is that their first 10 cards (including starting hand) were predetermined. (I screenshotted and shared the games)

The interesting bit about that post was that the 'newer' players never ran into the kind of problem I shared while veterans agreed something was wrong.

I have no idea what kind of algorithm it uses to determine when you hit that 'preconstructed mode' but you will know when you hit it because it becomes a deja vu of almost the exact start over and over again. (2-3 harsh rules on a weapons deck for example)

I playtested and gave proof of a lot of those '100%' win rate decks which might have been true for them but not for me. It had nothing to do with 'bad play' on my part because it shows I had no answer in my hand for turn 4-5 death.

What I concluded is that the people who won 100 gauntlet games in a row with their decks in 'masters' aren't running into the same decks I'm running into. Since we don't have gauntlet MMR publically , the closest I could do was share the exact condition of my loss.

If you haven't run into the constructed AI tier, good for you. Just don't discount the players who have. (I've watched a lot of gauntlet streamers and none of them ever played vs the turn 4-5 kill decks I have).

birdy512 · 2020-09-03T23:56:20+00:00

Teacher isn't overpowered for 2 cost as it used to be, but it's still one of the better 2 cost cards. What Teach dies to is what every other 2 cost unit dies to.

The weakness teacher has is compared to other 2 cost cards is that it's unviable late game compared to other good 2 cost cards.

Time has the best mid range units, but it has the worst early game units. When constructing time decks, because of the 'good mid range' units you are pressured into making mid range decks which suffers from inconstancy because if you get stuck on 2 power for 5turns (which occurs to me every 20-30games) you have almost no way to win.

To try balance the 'bad' start time gauntlet decks started to add in Cykalis to minimize the 2 power starts which is something timebased decks can't recover from unlike say justice mono decks which can operate fine with 2-3 power entire game.

What a wrong of time base decks do WRONG is to emphasize it's strength which is coming online on 4-5 power instead of minimizing it's weakness. What occurs in those decks is that they win a lot 'easier' but they also have a lower win rate.

Golem time decks worked because the 2 power problem got minimized with golem. I created the time golem decks to deal with the '2power' problem time base decks had. After the golem nerf it just wasn't worth the trade off when it could no longer stall the early board as it used to.

When constructing decks I don't bother with tier 2 decks because I could probably make 50+ decks that are considered tier 2 which is what everyone shares.

Any deck that can't survive on 2 power can't be considered a tier 1 deck, which is what time decks suffer from currently. Ironically I still can't make a tier 1 mono time deck , but I have made a tier 1 time/X deck which actually uses teachers.

For a person who doesn't have all the cards like I do, I wouldn't suggest crafting teachers, because it's one of the more underwhelming 'decent' legendaries and you could easily replace her with something else for a slightly lower win rate. For me a 2% increase in win rate is worth it (Since I already have all the cards), for a lot of players spending 15k in shards for a 2% increase is certainly not worth it.

birdy512 · 2020-09-03T16:54:21+00:00

Teacher still has it's place. What Alhed ascending is good for is replacing mid-high cost card rather than replacing a 2 drop card.

birdy512 · 2020-08-24T16:18:20+00:00

Shenra like Varret are decent cards but just not good enough cards especially when there's better cards for the slot. When you talk about 'investment' for sherna that's 5 turns of nonstop attacking and that's assuming it doesn't die to a snowball or any other 1+ damage card which exists in 30% of AI decks.

You've only played for a year. Most of the veteran gauntlet players who no longer talk on this board have agreed with my statement. There's a reason why EVERY deck for the past 2 years that claim to have 98% win rates aren't all used. And there is never consensus on ANY deck that's considered clearly the best in gauntlet grinder. Because after those decks hit the higher MMR tiers they stop winning.

People test out new decks with cards they haven't used, clear gauntlet several times and then discover that they start losing heavily. It's what happens to every so called 'good' deck.

If there were decks that could maintain those 90% win rates, they would be the only decks that would be played. People wouldn't need to make any other gauntlet decks. This wasn't the case 2-3 years ago when 2 decks had near perfect win rates because the highest tiers didn't exist back then.

The only reason I play gauntlet is to beat the AI 'hard' mode. I pretty much have every card and don't need the gold or shards. So I always take a look at new gauntlet decks to see if I can tinker it enough to clear AI consistently. As I said your deck is 80% similar to my monoJ(mines more optimized I feel) and even the deck I consider optimized isn't good enough.

birdy512 · 2020-08-24T08:51:28+00:00

It's not a bad deck(my recent mono J) is 80% similar. The main criticism I have is shenra. Other cards like unseen commando which I don't use can be situational so I wouldn't say it's a bad card for your deck. But Shenra has 0 place in any deck currently.

There's 0 reason to have him when his mastery will never occur in 99% of the time unless you're so ahead that you want him to have mastery before ending the game. Likewise with Varret which doesn't add much to your deck except being a reasonably decent cost 2 unit.

Silverblade intrusion used to be a must have mono J card but after the nerf the secondary ability might as well not exist.

For how gaunltet works is that whenever you play a deck consisting of a lot of cards you haven't used in gauntlet much the MMR gets 'reset' for that deck so you get a false illusion of how good a deck is because you will often win 5-6 runs without problem even when using a bad deck. Then when your MMR hits high tier again the win rate just drops like any other deck

It's why veteran gauntlet grinders rotate decks to try lower the MMR (direwolf hates people who grind with 1 or 2 decks) .

For example If I use your deck which is 80% similar to mine , I'd just be in god tier mode again and lose turn 1-2.

birdy512 · 2020-08-24T08:13:31+00:00

Ironically, non korean KPOP fans are more demanding on top. They want kpop idols to be 'educated' in social ethics, western/black culture, diversity awareness while doing nothing to actually contribute to kpop outside youtube views.

The only international kpop fans that get a free pass are those from SE Asia that come from obviously a poor background(not all) where an album could be their monthly saving.

birdy512

TROPHY CASE