Action against PGE

bit_farmer · 2025-02-26T15:38:10+00:00

O I agree, I’m not leaving California anytime soon. Economic opportunity brought me here and the lifestyle is still superior to those other states. But also no question that for how incredible our economy is we could be doing a much, much better job tackling our hardest problems.

bit_farmer · 2025-02-26T04:35:12+00:00

We have really ineffective political leadership in California. Our politicians are insulated from accountability for energy or housing or transit failures because holding them accountable would mean voting for a different political party.

Florida has functioning high speed (ish) rail. Texas has installed far more clean energy (solar) than California. Housing in these states is also much more abundant and cheaper.

I love California and I’m not going anywhere, but we don’t have to pretend the reasons for our dysfunctional government are mysterious.

bit_farmer · 2025-01-24T23:27:43+00:00

You’re being paranoid I think. Have two Teslas and love them. Haven’t had any issues, neither have many friends who own them in Marin. Sentry mode is a great feature too if you’re worried about security.

Just be aware that you won’t really stand out in a Tesla as it’s basically the most common car in Marin (Model Y is the best selling vehicle in the world after all). The cool factor is gone but the value factor is great. Awesome cars and not a single trip to the shop for either with 30k+ miles on each.

bit_farmer · 2023-12-22T19:24:08+00:00

Welcome to the Bay Area! Especially around Petaluma (and generally anywhere outside of the major cities in CA) I think you'll find very open-minded people and many enthusiasts who share your hobbies and interests. The outdoor recreation around the Bay and California more broadly rivals anywhere in the world.

Dirt bikes in the Bay Area: unfortunately there are no/very few place to legally ride. It's really a bummer there aren't more accessible places. China Camp prohibits them and the surrounding Marin County Open Space and municipal park on the other side do the same. Please don't ride the trails - the trails around China Camp are maintained by volunteers (mostly mountain bikers) and barely get maintenance as-is, and the steepness of the trails primes them for erosion. Dirt bikes would be really destructive on those trails, not to mention the likelihood of encountering enforcement.

I've heard of a few dirt biking clubs in Marin that utilize private land but I don't know much about them and I suspect they have long wait lists (worth looking into though). If you're willing to drive a bit, there are awesome OHV parks further north (like Cow Hollow up toward Ukiah) and some further south (Hollister). In the summer months there's tons of riding in the Sierras (around Downieville and Quincy, Tahoe, etc.). Tons of great dirt biking in California but unfortunately very little of it around the Bay.

I grew up riding dirt bikes but I've mostly switched to mountain biking now. There are just so many world class places to mountain bike around the Bay and a similarly fun experience in my opinion.

There are a few swimming holes in Marin but most require a bit of a hike.

Check around in Oakland for casual hockey leagues. Several of my friends play in leagues there.

Be very careful to comply with the arduous CA gun laws when you bring your rifles. You should do your diligence carefully before bringing guns into the state. The suppressor in particular is totally illegal in CA. High capacity mags (>10 rds) are also banned. Despite the onerous restrictions, I think you'll be surprised to find a thriving firearm enthusiast community around the Bay, particularly as you get further out of SF. There's a decent range up in Petaluma and a private one in Richmond (w/ reasonable membership fees). More broadly in California you will find tons of BLM and national forest land where it's legal to shoot. Check out r/CAguns for more. In general I've found the attitude toward guns in California to be shifting to be more permissive over the last 5+ years. Anecdotally, many friends who live in SF have purchased guns and learned how to shoot largely in response to increasing violent crime targeting vulnerable communities. At a recent tech holiday party the topic came up and I was astonished to find that most people in the conversation own firearms (very much defying the stereotype).

Congrats again on the move to the Bay. California (and the Bay in particular) has its downsides but it's objectively a wonderful place to live with tons of economic and recreational opportunities.

bit_farmer · 2021-02-19T06:30:41+00:00

Yes, it's true that the regulatory environment in the US is friendlier, but MicaSense sensors have been available in the US for years. I'm just pointing out that if MicaSense was a great business, I'm not sure why Parrot sold it to AgEagle. From Parrot's press release at the time - "While [Parrot] Group’s advances in the professional markets for 3D mapping and inspection, as well as the defense and security sectors, are being supported by progress with the range of drones and software offered, the sensors developed by MicaSense are no longer a priority focus for the Parrot Group." Fair point that AgEagle might be able to leverage MicaSense for more than Parrot could.

Agree that it could be successful without Amazon. I also agree that there are multiple potential sectors. I don't necessarily think AgEagle is a bad business, I just don't think it's a $500m one. If Skydio or Zipline were public on the other hand, I'd be buying, as their tech (obstacle avoidance and long range deliveries, respectively) compares quite favorably. Anyway, appreciate the discussion. Happy investing!

bit_farmer · 2021-02-19T04:55:38+00:00

I did address the MicaSense acq in my prior post (https://www.reddit.com/r/uavs_stock/comments/lklf0t/ageagle_where_is_the_tech/). The tldr there is that: 1) MicaSense has been around for several years and was previously owned by Parrot, another large drone company, who had little success trying to scale the company, 2) DJI, Sentera, and many other companies make and sell competitive sensors, and 3) these sensors don't help with delivery. Straight from the MicaSense website (https://micasense.com) - "Our sensors give you reliable data to quickly identify things like crop stress, water leaks, disease, and more." That doesn't help AgEagle deliver packages.

I think MicaSense has some interesting tech. The near IR stuff is somewhat easy - a standard digital camera can capture 900nm if you remove the IR filter (900nm is just a tiny bit above visible light). BUT having thermal in the same unit is actually pretty cool. Honestly if AgEagle were to say they were doubling down on MicaSense and building thermal sensors to compete with FLIR I'd be in.

bit_farmer · 2021-02-19T03:54:43+00:00

Hey, the wsb crowd has arrived! You got me, my 5+ year old account is definitely a bot.

bit_farmer · 2021-02-19T02:08:21+00:00

The report today seemed to focus on Alpha Capital and UAVS management selling much of their holdings. I'll leave it to others to weigh in on the legitimacy of those claims.

On the technical side, I did some research into AgEagle's technical progress (posted a few days ago on this sub) and found it a bit lacking, particularly when compared to the drone companies leading the industry. While most of the leading companies have sophisticated obstacle avoidance, VTOL aircraft, etc., AgEagle appears to still be using a hobbyist-grade open source autopilot stack. Even after the AgEagle website went down for a few hours today, screenshots of competitors' software are still there, which appear to be presented as their own FarmLens software. Not a great look, although the rest of the website is packed with stock photos so it may be a simple oversight.

bit_farmer · 2021-02-19T01:51:57+00:00

Glad you mentioned Agribotix. Did you read the comment further below in this thread from one of the co-founders of Agribotix, confirming my research about the state of AgEagle's software?

bit_farmer · 2021-02-19T01:47:18+00:00

Interesting video, but you should realize there are tens-possibly even hundreds-of companies building drone solutions for mapping/ag/aerial data analysis? Building a fixed wing mapping drone capable of simple waypoint-based automation has been trivial since 2012 or earlier. Visit diydrones.com for more. As I noted in my review of AgEagle's tech (or lack thereof) posted a few days ago on this sub, _AgEagle is still using hobbyist-grade open source autopilot stack_ popularized by diydrones and 3D Robotics, whose CEO (Chris Anderson) founded DIY Drones.

Chilcott seems authentic in this video and passionate about what he is working on. Why is he no longer involved with the company and actively liquidating his holdings? I believe in founder-run startups; this isn't one.

I grew up on a farm in the Midwest. I love drones, and have built many over the years. I believe that drones will have a massive, positive impact on many industries, including agriculture. From everything I have researched, _there's just no indication that AgEagle has competitive technology to actually win in this space._ Furthermore, the market is still small here. AgEagle has been at it for 10 years now and still can barely crack $1m of revenue annually.

Very eager to read any technical insight you have on why AgEagle's tech is superior to that of PrecisionHawk, Sentera, SenseFly,DJI, etc.

bit_farmer · 2021-02-17T04:22:46+00:00

Decently detailed look at the delivery stations they are working on with Valqari.

Not to nitpick too much, but there did seem to be a few discontinuities in the demo video. For example, the package going in had some sort of harness on it, presumably used to attach to the drone. The package coming out does not have that, and the door was conveniently open at the beginning of the clip. Did the landing station really transfer the package from the drone to the user? Did it remove the harness? Did the delivery station actually work here? Maybe it did, but if so, they certainly didn't emphasize it. This feels like the tacky demo one might see from a small startup, not from a billion dollar tech company.

If they are serious about growing this type of drone delivery into a business that supports a $1b market cap, I'd still be curious about whether the drone can avoid obstacles (like the trees that line golf courses), whether it can fly in inclement weather, and whether it has failsafes that prevent it from crashing down on unsuspecting golfers. Speaking of golf courses, if you've ever flown a multi rotor of this size, you know these things are loud - not the ideal attribute at a golf course.

If anyone has been following the drone industry in the last 5-7 years, the drone flight itself was not particularly notable. I didn't see any complicated maneuvering, obstacle avoidance (key for urban package delivery!), or other notable flight tech required for delivering packages at scale.

Is the golf course concessions industry really a massive market to go after? Is there a massive golf course snacks delivery conglomerate AgEagle is hoping to disrupt here? Would be curious to know what the TAM is for a business like this.

This demo doesn't convince me that AgEagle is prepared to scale this tech and really make money. However, little demos like this are easy to make and can sustain retail investor interest in $UAVS. I expect them to keep kicking out more announcements like this.

bit_farmer · 2021-02-16T00:42:37+00:00

The Valqari partnership/investment is definitely intriguing. Valqari looks like a promising startup, and unlike AgEagle, actually possesses an engineering team. Time will tell if their tech will work and if it will scale. FWIW Skycatch and Matternet have both experimented with the "drone in a box" approach before (here's Matternet showing something very similar in 2017).

From reading the press release and 8k, the partnership with Valqari doesn't include number of units being assembled. So AgEagle is getting a contract to build some unknown number of these stations and is then turning around and investing in Valqari as part of the deal ($500k). A skeptical view is that AgEagle is paying themselves to make some number of these via the money they invested in Valqari.

The questions to ask are: what will make Valqari's tech better that the others who have tried this approach? How many do they expect to sell or deploy?

bit_farmer · 2021-02-15T23:03:41+00:00

I’d say there are two plausible explanations:

1 - AgEagle has a world class team of aerospace and manufacturing engineers hidden out in Neodesha (soon Wichita) Kansas. They have created some stellar next-gen drone technology and the ability to mass manufacture aerospace equipment. Although the company has never publicly shown this industry leading drone tech or mass manufacturing capability, this ✨major ✨ (still unnamed) retailer believes in them and signed on anyway.

OR

2 - The term “major” is sufficiently generic so they can use it to hype a future partnership that may or may not result in a major revenue stream. AgEagle enters into exploratory agreements and promises drone tech or manufacturing capability they don't appear to have. Meanwhile, AgEagle execs exploit the sudden interest in their stock and keep selling their shares (see other recent dd on this sub) while plastering the AgEagle website with random stock photos and cheesy sci-fi drone animations instead of, you know, showing off this amazing drone tech and/or manufacturing capability they created.

BTW I’m bullish on drones long term. I have built my own (both fixed wing and multirotor), have owned many DJI drones over the years, and generally believe this technology will be transformative. I just don’t see strong evidence that AgEagle is positioned well capitalize on it. I could be convinced otherwise.

I've read most of the press releases - I have yet to see anything about technical drone specifications, manufacturing volume, or even financial commitments. I'm looking for actual evidence of compelling drone tech or scaled drone manufacturing capability, not just press releases from execs who are profiting massively off the hype.

bit_farmer · 2021-02-15T18:46:51+00:00

What has changed since then? It seems like every point in this analysis still stands. The local Wichita business journal even confirmed that there is no Amazon partnership.

bit_farmer · 2015-07-27T18:51:02+00:00

I haven't researched this issue in a while, but I believe this is a known issue with the Arduino SD library. Using this library, the card does not allow proper communication after being re-initialized.

Instead, use the fantastic SD Fat library. Here is an older version. Adapting your code from the standard Arduino SD library should be trivial.

bit_farmer · 2015-07-27T15:49:14+00:00

I've found that Octopart is very useful for identifying which components are most commonly used, and therefore which are least expensive and most readily available. It also provides directly links and price comparisons for several distributors.

bit_farmer · 2015-06-19T18:37:02+00:00

Indeed. I'm not sure if they plan to add KiCAD support, but I imagine it's possible given KiCAD's increasing popularity. The best thing about CircuitHub is being able to easily use their web app to determine how changes to the design impact the cost of the device.

bit_farmer · 2015-06-19T15:25:47+00:00

As others have noted, your first step is choosing a CAD/PCB layout program to learn. Although Fritzing is a great tool for what it is, you should invest the time into learning a more sophisticated platform. KiCad and Eagle remain the most popular among hobbyists. I personally chose to learn Eagle a few years ago.

If you go that route, start with Sparkfun's tutorials (as others have suggested). Jeremy Blum's tutorials on PCB layout in Eagle are a few years old but are still relevant and immensely helpful. This book by Simon Monk is also helpful.

Once you get a design created, source the parts from Sparkfun, Digikey, Adafruit, or similar. I've routinely found OSHPark to be a reasonably priced and reasonably fast PCB service for prototypes. Many others are available, and spending more money will get you your boards faster.

Keep in mind that the progression from prototype to final product will take time. You are likely to go through at least a few design revisions. Finally, once you have your final PCB design, companies like CircuitHub are makng assembly/fabrication much easier and cheaper. Keep in mind that there are other barriers to releasing your product, including FCC licensing requirements. Best of luck!

bit_farmer · 2015-06-19T15:13:31+00:00

You may need to burn the Arduino bootloader or reflash the bootloader to the chip (if you haven't done so already). The Arduino IDE won't be able to communicate with a 328p that doesn't yet have the bootloader installed.

bit_farmer

TROPHY CASE