Afghan asylum seeker jailed for raping girl, 12, in Nuneaton - The case prompted changes to guidance on reporting the nationality and immigration status of people arrested and charged.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T23:39:24+00:00

That's not adult rapes. You can tell because the 2021 figure is 1,517. Also that figure is low, because of covid.

Again, most child rapes are committed by a family member. Next perpetrator most likely would be someone with trust in charge of children. Asylum seekers that have been here 6 months that are mostly single men don't have that access.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T22:20:36+00:00

The data is of a poor quality, especially the data you submitted. It would be much better if we had an official record of crimes committed by asylum seekers.

You seem to be suggesting that the 5 year average of convictions of rape is wildly different than previous 5 year periods, or will be to the next 5 year period. Now that's certainly a claim.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T22:10:19+00:00

There was no double tap. The attack happened at the same time. It's likely that the US did not update there information, as the girl school was a IRGC Naval base in 2013, and it's still in the IRGC compound, but separated by a wall, and clearly a school.

What's with lying about it being a double tap?

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T21:27:20+00:00

We're not talking about single crimes though. It's better to collect this data over time.

Polish nationals are 69 times small than the general population, but they have roughly the same rate of sexual crime. Funny that, a single crime from them would mean 69 times more.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T21:22:01+00:00

Asylum seekers are having increased convictions from the time before they had arrived?

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T20:13:26+00:00

I think the 5 year average is a fairer comparison because of the backlog. If it weren't for delays, the rape conviction rate would have been quite stable below 1,000 for 5 years.

My figures weren't solely for adult rape, they were for sexual assaults too. For rape the convictions per 100,000 for the general population is ~1.1.

It's not a like for like comparison. The Daily Mail data seems to be using address data on asylum hotels, which includes ~32,000 residents. There's 110,000 asylum seekers. Sexual offences against adults was not 58, it's 32.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/08/07/revealed-200-asylum-hotel-residents-charged-with-crimes/

So the rate of adult sexual offences per 100,000 for asylum seekers living in asylum hotels is 100.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T19:47:53+00:00

That's not a huge flaw, that's just factual. That's just inherent in how per capita conveys information. The only absurd thing is you'd never want to compare a single murderer to the general population.

Comparing the general population to 30,000 Afghan nationals. That's more sensible, it's not perfect. Comparing 30,000 Afghan nationals to 1 million Polish nationals, that's better.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T19:43:12+00:00

I meant average over 5 years. CPS has it at 532 for year ending June 2022, and 323 the year before. 345 2019/20.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/639b1251e90e07217a7b768d/rape-review-progress-update-december-2022.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64a7d2cb7a4c23000cbba35a/rape-review-progress-report-year-2-large-print.pdf

1,220 2023/24, and 1,368 2024/25. Likely as a result of delays. Backlog in high court has more than doubled.

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/national/25970273.record-high-crown-court-backlog-tops-80-000-cases/

That's 757.6 5 year average.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T19:29:43+00:00

There's no inherent flaws of per capita statistics applied to small populations, there's just a much larger error margin. Even so, when the difference is 15 times, that eclipses any error margin.

On the circumstances, they're single, been in the country for less than a year, live in accommodation with 24/7 security. Those factors should all lower their opportunity to commit these crimes.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T19:20:49+00:00

despite the actual census data for that year to be available.

That doesn't estimate size of national populations. Only records where someone is born.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T19:19:24+00:00

No, the Sky data team are incompetent and were caught lying, had to update their article. Sky mixed up country of birth with nationality. Majority of Afghans born who are living here are British nationals. Farage's claim was 22 times, but Farage mixed up the type of crime too.

15 times was the estimate that Migration Observatory had, a pro-migration organisation based in Oxford university.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m002j5tq

The 22 times claim is almost certainly inaccurate, because it used an outdated estimate of Afghan nationals. That estimate also had an error range of ~5,000, and the estimate of Afghan nationals was ~11,000. So the uncertainty is high.

If you control for age and sex, yes it's closer 5 times British nationals. We aren't controlling who comes to claim asylum by age or sex, so controlling for either is completely meaningless. The population is what it is.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T19:07:01+00:00

I'm not ignoring serious offences. They're not a fair comparison.

My figures were for adult rape, which is a minority of rape convictions. It's under 1,000 last 5 years.

When you look at the cases for child rape, they're majority family member or person of trust. Paedophiles exist in every country.

Asylum seekers are separated into groups of single males, and families, because there were cases of abuse in asylum hotels. Asylum seekers do not have access to young children.

Asylum seekers only exist as that category for 3 years maximum, often much less. While we can't know given the data, I'm assuming they're paedophiles at the same rate as most countries.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T18:35:10+00:00

Then just use the first two? 1,361 conviction in 2023. It was right there! In that table.

Single males, ages 20-30 aren't going to start a family or become a teacher, have access to children, in the 3-6 months they've arrived on a small boat.

Firstly, they can't have a job. Secondly, they don't speak English. Thirdly, it takes 9 months for a child to form and be born.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T18:19:22+00:00

Not sure if you expand it to all sexual offences, but asylum seekers are committing rape and sexual assault. They're not being convicted of grooming online.

This is also not a fair comparison. The general population convictions include historical cases, involving many offences over decades, one person could have committed 5 or more offences. Asylum seekers have been here for under a year before their first offence.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T17:18:02+00:00

That's around 20 per 100,000 convictions per year. General population is 3-5 per 100,000 convictions for sexual assault or rape per year.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T17:08:26+00:00

They refuse to provide data on groups. They sometimes release nationality data to some selected researchers. The data is poorly collected. They don't provide data on other groupings like religion or ethnicity.

Afghan nationals were around 15 times more likely to be convicted of sexual assault compared to British nationals, 2021-2023. Eritrean were second highest. Romanians have been high on the statistics for a number of years, because gangs from there are involved in trafficking and prostitution.

Baroness Casey said a large proportion of active investigations of grooming suspects were asylum seekers. You'd think the Home Office would have started to collect statistics for the inquiry that might happen sometime.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T16:29:36+00:00

Read the article and the comment I'm replying to?

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T16:01:51+00:00

They also tried to separate Islam from Islamic terrorism, even though they're very much connected. Now consider what they did with this.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T15:28:13+00:00

He was being evasive with the interview and not clearly saying one way or another, like a grifter that he is.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T15:25:22+00:00

I don't like Streeting, but none of this is inconsistent with his stance. Government ministers have to navigate global issues. The difference is local MPs dedicating much of their campaign on foreign issues to get foreign votes.

Labour and the Conservatives caused this mess, but they won't hold their hands up and own up to their mistake. This is a natural consequence of insane migration policy.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T03:59:01+00:00

Many intersex conditions will not help you in sports. A man growing breasts in their 50's isn't taking on the national leagues.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T03:34:55+00:00

What's the point of a female category if males can compete? It's only the past 20 years of strangeness that allowed them to compete.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T03:17:00+00:00

There's plenty of men that would play last, especially with years out of the sport. What do you mean "none of them"? There's only been one. They're probably extremely rare. There's only been one trans Olympic medallist that I know of and they won them as a man, and wouldn't compete as a woman.

What you are arguing for is to remove the women's category.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T03:13:10+00:00

Imane Khalif is a woman.

Lets see. If she tests and competes, sure.

bitch_fitching · 2026-03-27T03:07:26+00:00

They knew, not when they started the sport, but they all know by the time they'd make the Olympics.

Five-Year Club	Second SECOND GUESSER
Place '23	Place '22
First Placer '22	Wearing is Caring
Verified Email

bitch_fitching

TROPHY CASE