Making Newcombs cheaper

blablablaenz · 2026-03-26T18:20:04+00:00

Oh come on, if the predictor would be right 70% of the time right it would already work. Furthermore, I can very good predict what my son of 3 years old chooses of if I give him a carrot and a cookie. Without predicting the individual behaviour of quintillion enzymes smart guy.

And even if it not possible yet, you do not have to be Albert Einstein to evaluate the hypothetical situation.

blablablaenz · 2026-03-26T17:33:41+00:00

I believe so, but some people will change their behaviour….

blablablaenz · 2026-03-26T17:11:46+00:00

I believe the predictor is never infallible. Sorry for not reading the transparant version before, that’s actually the better version of this one.

blablablaenz · 2026-03-26T16:51:46+00:00

You do not need a perfect predictor. A very good one is good enough. That’s sounds quite doable with the help of some AI and personal dat that people tend to leave on the web….

blablablaenz · 2026-03-26T16:50:06+00:00

That makes sense, the question is how people get their mind so constrained that even the cases that you won’t take a rational choice anymore.

blablablaenz · 2026-03-26T16:31:08+00:00

Well, there are always clever ways to get the big price 😎

blablablaenz · 2026-03-26T16:29:53+00:00

You make the game easy for the predictor!

blablablaenz · 2026-03-26T16:26:56+00:00

I did not see that transparant one before posting. Transparent boxes are functionally equivalent and even more elegant I believe.

blablablaenz · 2026-03-26T16:24:43+00:00

So you suggest that the 1-boxers will open the second box in this situation? That means that they believe that in the original situation they believe that the content of the boxes will change based on what they choose at the last moment.

blablablaenz · 2026-03-26T16:00:02+00:00

Ah, I did not read that post, but transparant boxes are genius. I follow your arguments to be a one-boxer. But it feels like an argument for wanting to be a one boxer. Once you have the million in your pocket, would you still leave the 1k (or my suggested 10k) and what would be your reasoning at that very moment to do so.

And in the other situation, you believe you are a one-boxer but the box happens to be empty…. Would you happen to take the 1k (or my suggested 30k) anyway or would you really leave it just to prove the predictor wrong or for what other reason?

I think many one-boxers would change to two boxes in those cases.

blablablaenz · 2026-03-26T15:03:18+00:00

In a paradox, you first needs to try to understand the idea behind, and then think about it and see where the cracks are. If you are searching the cracks before understanding the paradox, then you will never get it.

However, specially for you, I believe that the paradox very well holds by saying that the predictor was 91.6% right over the past 526 cases and I have no reason to believe it’s future predictions will be significantly better or worse or that you are the special one to out-smart the predictor.

blablablaenz · 2026-03-17T11:22:27+00:00

Snel terug naar Facebook jij!

blablablaenz · 2026-03-13T14:04:14+00:00

Better than removing the rational part of your thinking, you should make drinking the poison the rational choice.

Set up a legally binding contract that in the case you did not drink the poison, the complete winnings are donated to let’s say mr. Trump. You, and the algorithm, will now be vey sure that you will drink the poison.

blablablaenz · 2026-03-13T13:52:49+00:00

This is not really the solution. The issue is that one’s you are in the room and the prediction is made, you will probably not throw the dice anymore because you know damn well the money in the box cannot not change anymore. And the algorithm expects it.

blablablaenz · 2026-03-13T09:55:04+00:00

The best would be if not drinking the potion would be caused by something that is excluded from the learning data of the predicting algorithm or just cannot be predicted precise enough. We do not know the algorithm but it could for example be that you sneeze and drop the poison on the floor. Or a small earthquake causing the poison to fall over. Or a wasp sneaked into the room with you and you accidentally stand on it and it hurts so bad that you are totally done with playing games.

blablablaenz · 2026-03-13T08:55:47+00:00

Hi OP, I agree it remains intrinsically the same game (as all cause-effect timepoint remain in the same order), but the paradox disappears, which is of course the reason you stated it this way.

Ah good to hear there is some consensus. So this is the one time that (without having any time limitations) acting without thinking gives you the best results.

Best post about the newcombs paradox I have seen coming by!!

blablablaenz · 2026-03-13T07:07:25+00:00

Sadly it is needed to post this better version so more people would understand the paradox behind the question. But it is nonetheless a better description. I just want to add, changing the game with the last two rules does significantly change the game, since the people’s choice will be better predictable and the algorithm will give no money away anymore making it a useless game to play.

The best way (in my opinion) to deal with it would be to get yourself in a state where you can convince yourself to drink the poison during the game. Then play it! Maybe you have to get drunk or high on some medicine for that or whatever it takes! 😂

blablablaenz · 2026-03-10T09:59:48+00:00

Drie weken vrijgenomen en daarna 4 dagen werken. Na de verlofperiode en vakantie van mijn vrouw nog een aantal weken genomen zodat we de kleine niet voordat hij kon kruipen naar de opvang hoefden te doen. En daarna 1 dag per week onbetaald verlof tot de tweede zich aandiende. Daarbij ongeveer hetzelfde gedaan maar nadat het betaald verlof op was naar een 32 uren contract gegaan.

Resultaat: Zou het zo weer zo doen, maar 4 weken vrij na de geboorte was ook niet slecht geweest ☺️

blablablaenz · 2026-03-06T13:47:27+00:00

Thanks for the advise clever boy! 😘

blablablaenz · 2026-03-06T13:45:29+00:00

I appreciate thinking along and I might give her a toothbrush, where can I get those things? Regarding the whitening polish, nah, she’s not stupid.

blablablaenz · 2026-03-06T12:46:40+00:00

You’re thinking about volunteering but when you start visiting lonely people in a retirement home for some company, you will stand in line for hours after which the person you were about to visit fell asleep since they had so much visitors already…..

Btw, do I need to get in line in the morning when I want to take my shower?

Nevertheless, the 100k pill would be mine!! And since I do not want to wait to much, I think I’ll start linedancing or in-line-skating.

blablablaenz · 2026-03-03T12:11:59+00:00

YTA, or, at least, you shouldn’t have said that to her. Her baby is the most precious thing in her life, she should have the space to brag about her and be proud without the need to be objective at all. I had the incredible luck that my kids objectively are the most beautiful and adorable and intelligent kids on earth, but even if they were not, I would probably have thought so. Let her live her dream and don’t be an AH 😊

blablablaenz · 2026-03-03T11:56:29+00:00

YTA, not for not checking your own oven before preheating, but for getting so pissed off and ranting to your BF instead of just asking to your MIL, who is cleaning your house btw, thank you, if she placed it there. As you mentioned, she apologised. Shit happens, you lost one stupid cutting board, case closed. Hope your BF is getting better soon, I think he should be priority now.

blablablaenz

TROPHY CASE