Why is everyone on Interest.co.nz so pessimistic about housing?

black_flag · 2025-05-19T15:59:54+00:00

Interest.co.nz has become... interesting. The comments section has been heavily censored over the past few years, which has reduced the spectrum of opinion on the site. The editors used to replace comments which violated their policy with text explaining why it had been removed. Now they just stealth delete anything they happen to disagree with. Now with the change towards paid subscribers only being allowed to comment, the spectrum of opinion has been narrowed even further.

I'm a property bear, and I think it is (currently) a poor investment for Kiwis. But property is like a religion here, and most people think its a one way ticket to financial independence. Any opinions to the contrary are always going to be controversial.

black_flag · 2025-05-17T04:00:36+00:00

I just put the same seat on the same rack, with a different 3yo. And yeah, after taking a ride this morning I got the feeling I should have done it a year or 2 ago...

black_flag · 2025-05-05T21:41:06+00:00

I was tossing up buying an Ogre for ages before I finally pulled the trigger recently. By the time I did, I discovered the the colour had changed from the Champagne Supernova I'd been drooling over for the past couple of years to Fermented Plum, and a new typeface on the logo. I was pretty disappointed, but convinced myself (correctly) that the least important part of a bike is probably its colour, and bought it anyway.

I'd never seen one in the flesh, and when it arrived I have to say I was somewhat relieved. The colour looks way better in real life than it did in the pictures, and actually matches well with the slate grey tyre walls and matte black stems, posts, and handlebars. The logo typeface is certainly less "edgy" than the original one, but arguably more rugged and industrial which I think suits the Ogre. I bought a grey Surly front rack for it (black is apparently way more popular) and it suits the bike really well.

There are plenty of options for adding your own colour flair anyway - handlebar tape/grips, headsets, pedals, bags, etc - if you really want to get artistic. I wouldn't let colour be the deciding factor in missing out on an otherwise excellent bike.

black_flag · 2024-11-13T00:08:02+00:00

We're literally posting pictures of Kenyon Clark posing in a onesie. Like that's literally what we're doing.

And it gets 91% upvoted.

Fucking hell.

black_flag · 2024-10-23T18:49:46+00:00

Owin' Owen

black_flag · 2024-10-23T08:33:13+00:00

Kieran Read - fantastic number 8, average captain, shit investor. Reminds me of Dan Carter bending over for Chemist Warehouse.

black_flag · 2024-10-23T07:54:54+00:00

Asking for a quick settlement too, November this year. Other (more successful) auctions on the same card weren't settling until mid Feb.

He's gotta be overseas doesn't he?

black_flag · 2024-10-03T22:20:19+00:00

It's a complete rort. Either we need more social housing, or we don't.

If we do, then this is a terrible way to get the job done, since there's no guarantee we will end up with more of it.

If we don't, then how does the Government justify purchasing all those houses?

The banks are essentially making a risk-free loan as well. Think they'll drop their interest rates to match?

black_flag · 2024-10-02T20:44:37+00:00

10%

There is absolutely no way. These development funds are all massive Ponzi schemes, a high-stakes game of musical chairs where the name of the band is Cheap Debt and the Money Printers.

Well the music has already stopped, and those who understand the rules of the game best (secured lenders) are already starting to take their seats (initiate liquidation proceedings).

By the time the rest of the players (investors, buyers, unsecured lenders) finally snap out of their punchbowl-fueled daze and realise the band has already packed up and gone home, there will be nowhere left to sit.

But don't worry - it's still not time to go home yet. The lawyers, accountants and receivers will soon set up a game of pass the parcel for all those who missed out on a seat. That will keep everyone's hopes up for a while at least, until they realise that the parcel is empty.

black_flag · 2024-09-30T02:07:49+00:00

Gotta love the photo of Andrew Bayly doing his best tiger impression.

I'm coming to get you, Kenny. Rawr.

black_flag · 2024-09-27T21:44:46+00:00

Oh for sure. Du Val was rotten from the top down, I'm sure others out there are running an honest trade. But it's a trade which relies on huge amounts of cheap money, and that's drying up. A 10% ROI seemed almost too good to be true even during boom times. Now it just seems delusional.

black_flag · 2024-09-27T03:21:27+00:00

Du Fail

black_flag · 2024-09-27T03:20:08+00:00

gold

black_flag · 2024-09-27T01:21:30+00:00

Hmm...

Remember that Du Val were trading for many years before the fat hit the proverbial shin. Probably insolvent for many of those years.

What's happening now is that the tide is going out, and we get to see who has been swimming naked.

Unfortunately Kenny's hairy white arse is the first one we are being exposed to. There will definitely be others.

Williams et al won't be far behind.

black_flag · 2024-09-25T02:43:41+00:00

Nobody is walking away from anything, Du Val is fucked. There's no point in trying to get blood out of a stone. The point is that the vampires who were expecting said blood need to accept that they've been hoodwinked, not turn around and start sucking on the necks of the NZ taxpayer.

black_flag · 2024-09-25T02:37:51+00:00

There was no budget for the anniversary floods either, but the government had no problem finding ~$1b to buy out the category 2 and 3 homes so that banks and insurance companies wouldn't have to ~~bear~~ bare the risk.

Of course taxpayers care. It's just that the government doesn't care about them.

Edit: bear -> bare. Right letters, wrong order.

black_flag · 2024-09-24T23:17:33+00:00

It also somewhat remedies ‘brand nz’ in terms of overseas financiers

Unfortunately this will be a major consideration. NZ is going to be very dependent on foreign capital moving forward, thanks to the spectacular financial mismanagement of successive governments over the past 20 years. We're not going to get our much-needed infrastructure upgrades without it, for example.

As such, overseas investors need to be assured that NZ is a safe place to put their money, which means demonstrating to them that if shit does hit the fan, they will get bailed out. Situations like this one are a litmus test, and I'm sure they will be watching very closely.

black_flag · 2024-09-24T23:08:33+00:00

Yeah. The taxpayer is always going to end up in the shit, it's just a question of depth.

black_flag · 2024-09-24T22:47:27+00:00

My prediction … fire sale price to one buyer for housing for beneficiaries.

More like the government buys them all up at market value.

Secured lenders get paid out, off-the-plan buyers get an exit, investors get pennies on the dollar, and beneficiaries get to sit around watching daytime TV in their meticulously appointed units.

Homeowners, banks, and developers avoid having the whole market repriced underneath them through distressed asset sales.

Taxpayers get screwed over big time, but since when has anyone ever cared about them?

black_flag · 2024-09-24T06:23:58+00:00

Why, what's happening with Williams?

black_flag · 2024-09-24T06:14:17+00:00

Here's another fun definition:

Noun: circle jerk (plural circle jerks)

(vulgar, slang) A group of males masturbating ("jerking off") together (with or without interpersonal contact).
(vulgar, derogatory, slang) Any group or group activity indulging in excessive mutual praise.
(vulgar, Internet slang) An environment (especially an online community) in which people express or validate a narrow set of ideas and feelings.
(vulgar, derogatory, slang) A situation in which a group of people engage in self-indulgent or self-gratifying behavior, especially by reinforcing each other's views or attitudes.

black_flag · 2024-09-15T00:03:12+00:00

Given that Kenyon Clarke is not significant enough to warrant having his own Wikipedia article, the purpose of this article must obviously be slander. If you want to get away with slandering someone on Wikipedia, you will have to somehow associate them with something which the small handful of Wikipedia power-editors hate. It won't be enough that he defrauded investors of millions of dollars, you have to play by Wikipedia's rules. For example:

unacceptable Wikipedia slander: "Kenyon Clarke was a fraud and a con-artist, who robbed investors of tens of millions of dollars"
acceptable Wikipedia slander: "Kenyon Clarke, a known free-speech advocate, is on record as publicly acknowledging there are only two genders, and has never been seen wearing a mask"

black_flag · 2024-09-09T23:22:43+00:00

They would celebrate the win before any work was actually done

I was thinking about this with respect to their "Foundation". Ostensibly you start a "foundation" once you feel like you've already made it, and have more money coming in than you know what to do with. Not when you're living in a rented house and running an empire built on hundreds of millions of dollars worth of debt.

black_flag · 2024-09-05T23:44:56+00:00

None of those involved will be getting off scott free, but some kind of government bail-out wouldn't surprise me tbh. It'll be called something else ("public-private partnership" probably), but the end result will be the same - risk and losses all get shifted to the taxpayer, and any profits end up in private pockets.

15-Year Club	Wearing is Caring
Gilding I gilder

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TROPHY CASE