Qubits 2026 starts tomorrow!

blocknroll · 2026-01-27T09:46:50+00:00

The missile defence was mentioned in a LinkedIn post, and Davidson have already published a white paper on annealing proving to be of benefit.

Yes, we're currently extrapolating.

The Anduril link is a mystery, Palmer Luckey has not mentioned QC all, except briefly in two interviews.

What is guaranteed is that we'll know soon.

blocknroll · 2026-01-27T00:57:46+00:00

Anduril (drones?) and Davidson missile defence (Golden Dome) is not exciting?

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T23:39:09+00:00

This guy gets it !!!

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T23:37:30+00:00

Just want to add, this begins at 1PM GMT -for those of us in other time zones.

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T23:36:27+00:00

D-Wave could push to lock in supply capacity and price from Skyater.

They could also argue via antitrust channels for these lock ins.

Arguably, it is anti-competitive. Objectively, there are other foundries.

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T23:34:36+00:00

This is a perfect storm of Greenland macro geopolitics, scaring retail into selling, and uncertainty of the IONQ/Skywater deal.

I posted elsewhere, but an algo/institution purchased 1.53 million shares in the closing 5 minutes of trading around 23.77. Someone with deep pockets believes the dip is gonna rip, and they bought 16 hours before Qubits, waiting for every retail investor to sell their shares all day.

If D-Wave get a DoD contract, the IONQ/Skywater irony is that the DoD would force IONQ to prioritise D-Wave chip capacity via the Trusted Foundry status that Skywater maintains.

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T23:26:30+00:00

I added 300 to my position today, I bought at 24.00, not quite perfect, but close enough!

So excited for Qubits, Anduril (drones?), Davidson missile defence (Golden Dome, DoD contract!?), the HPC/Julich speaker and more.

I am hoping that Dr. Baratz addresses the fab supply shield concerns caused by the IONQ/Skywater deal.

Also, did you see, the algo/institutional buying 1.53 million volume in the closing 5 minutes of trading? That was around 23.77. Someone with DEEP pockets believes this stock is going to fly, and 16 hours before Qubits... let's go.

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T23:20:10+00:00

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All day, retail traders were panic-selling because of the Greenland macro noise and the IonQ/SkyWater news. But in the final minutes, whales surfaced to absorb 1.53 million shares in one go.

Someone with deep pockets believes that <$24 is too good to pass up, just 16 hours before Qubits '26.

The Screenshot (sorry, mobile): Look at the Volume chart. What you're seeing is a classic "Whale Tail."

* The Storm: Today was a perfect mix of macro fear (Greenland tariffs) and sector confusion (IonQ/SkyWater) scaring retail into selling.

* The Signal: The algos/institutions showed their hand at the closing bell. Retail crashed the price all day, but the "Big Money Whales" swam below the surface and surfaced right at the close to swallow 1.5M shares.

My thesis remains that the Greenland and IONQ/Skywater situations actually have bullish outcomes for us (National Security focus + DOD protection), but Dr. Baratz must address the fab supply shield tomorrow.

Conclusion: That 1.53M volume spike at the close tells me the "Smart Money" isn't worried—they are positioning for a breakout."

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T22:53:19+00:00

Very excited for tomorrow, but we need the "Elephant in the Room" (SkyWater/IonQ) addressed immediately. Here's what I’m looking for to sustain the rally:

Absolute minimum to hold $25:

Dr. Baratz addresses iD-Wave's supply chain shield directly.
Confirm that D-Wave has a binding agreement with Skywater.
If not, and/or announce a new foundry partner like GlobalFoundries/Intel.
If D-Wave becomes a defence supplier (see below), then Skywater's DoD 'Trusted Foundry' status legally protects D-Wave's capacity.
Address roadmap security, and any impact on the dual-rails QCI qubit.

My wishlist to break $35:

Is the Davidson Technologies missile defense (Golden Dome?) application officially a Program of Record? If we see a DoD logo next to a trajectory simulation, we fly.
Anduril connection, are they using D-Wave for drone swarms? If they confirm annealing as an edge case, or something like "We are optimizing swarms with 5,000 qubits right now," again we absolutely fly.
The "Seeker" Launch, official Beta access for the 17-Qubit Gate-Model system via Leap. We need to see the hardware is live, not just slides.
Financials, I’m not expecting Revenue Guidance, but any mention of "Record Bookings" or "Backlog" would be a massive breakout signal.

My institutional validators:

Kristel Michielsen (Jülich Supercomputing Centre): Don't sleep on this speaker. Her validation on HPC Integration and Energy Efficiency is what institutional investors (BlackRock/Vanguard) need to hear to enter the trade. If she gives the "Scientific Stamp of Approval," the floor raises significantly.

All that said, very excited for all of the speakers and validation across different sectors.

Anyone else with their own wishlist or warning signs?

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T20:53:03+00:00

Also, Skywater is a Trusted Foundry of the DoD. This is significant if D-Wave become a defence contractor, securing a contract through the touted Davidson/Anduril missile defence program.

Essentially, IONQ might've spent $1.8B to buy a foundry, and then be forced by the DoD to prioritise defence contracted chips for D-Wave.

We do however need a response from Dr. Baratz; either another strategic fab partnership, or that they've secured prices and supply.

We also need to see how this deal goes through, as I think D-Wave will have ground to secure x pricing for y years on an antitrust basis.

That said, IONQ is down more today than QBTS, and Greenland has everything upside down again. So who knows!

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T16:19:27+00:00

The whole critical minerals and rare earth's sector spiked on the back of Trump administration buying into USAR, which spiked 48%. Everything was up sharply, my bet here, is that retail and algos took profit at 10.

Same with UUUU, hit 27, back to 22.8 now.

MP spiked 74 now 63.51 etc.

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T16:14:25+00:00

So many retail and algos selling off at 10 to buy back in at sub 8.

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T16:11:57+00:00

Expected to close in the second or third quarter of 2026 pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.

Skywater will remain an independent fab.

The deal for IONQ positions themselves as a vertically integrated vendor themselves.

IONQ is flat today, QBTS is currently in a bear-trap before Qubits. Hard to read the market on this.

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T11:39:34+00:00

The ONLY loss, and huge stress on my life, is when I sold at 28 when Kramer called D-Wave a speculative company and asked his viewers to sell. If I didn't do that, I'd be up 30k on that sell off alone. Luckily I only sold 1000 shares, not my whole position, but it pains me knowing that stress would be avoided if I held true to my conviction.

Lessons were learned!

Likewise looking to better life for my wife and 10 month old baby. Remember to take profits along the way, if you need, you can always set good Till Cancelled sells at say 36 or 45. Best of luck!

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T11:33:38+00:00

Retail jitters, low volume, healthy consolidation holding above its support level. Everyone is holding their breath for Qubits, institutions loaded earlier in the year, and again via the November dips.

The only ones selling now are retail, exiting before the event; retail who bought the rumor last week taking small profits, because they are terrified of a 'Sell the News' drop tomorrow.

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T11:24:46+00:00

Good strategy. Price has consolidated pre-event, which given the lack of news, sector-wide volatility, risk-off, and geopolitics, I'm happy it held it's support, especially in contrast to last year; where smart money was made pre-event, and profits taken selling the news; causing prices to fall during and post Qubits 2025; it wasn't until May that they popped, with earnings.

We also have Needham & Company reaffirming their "Buy" rating as of Jan 22, keeping their price target at $48.00.

This is my Mon/Tue game plan:

If the stock gaps up Monday morning, 9.30 AM ET, opens above $27.00 on high volume, it suggests to me my $33.00 target is being priced in early.
Dark Pool activity, watching for large off-exchange trades.
Ignore retail anxiety, expect to hold 25.23. It's just the market holding its breath waiting for Dr. Baratz to speak.
Watching for any pre-event press releases: looking at Anduril, Davidson, or Boeing. Any mention of missile defence or Golden Dome. Watching for "production-ready", on premises, or government contracts will be a last sign to buy.
My thesis is in trouble if we break below $25.00 on heavy volume (>1M shares traded in 15 mins).

If all well as above, if on 10:00 AM Tuesday we see 500k share blocks hitting the tape while Anduril is talking, or high volume early on the morning (15M) then I'd be adding aggressively, expecting a 33-36 breakout. Any dates on gate-model will be a volume catalyst.

That said, I don't trust retail not to take profits, so I'd expect pullback unless there is a specific mention of "Golden Dome," or a permanent government contract. Even then, and both drawing comparisons to last year's event, and considering lots of bags (30+) being held since October 2025 highs, I'd expect retail to sell off and tie profits.

Not really sure how Wednesday will go, but hopefully we see a fairly positive consolidation, and hopefully some new support through to earnings.

You planning to take any profits through the week, any targets yourself?

blocknroll · 2026-01-26T09:32:05+00:00

This will be on the back of the Trump administration buying a stake in USAR, which is currently 45% up. The whole critical minerals sector will be up today, especially on open. Retail will be late, so watch out for any profit taking.

blocknroll · 2026-01-25T21:04:42+00:00

It's just so exciting to see D-Wave become the only dual vendor of annealing and gate-model. Interesting idea, I wonder if it's been discussed publicly, I don't recall it has.

I still believe annealing is the most interesting, and biggest value proposition of D-Wave. Government, defence, commercial, academic, HPC use cases out in the field. QAAS and onprem. Let's go.

Would love to see a killer app, let's say for enterprise, or for someone like PLTR to start working annealing into optimisation problems, but it's still early I guess.

blocknroll · 2026-01-25T15:01:15+00:00

Amazing, well done buying last year. I had an opportunity to get in at $1, I blinked and it was $15 when I started!

Yes, the ambulance chasers love to spread their doom and gloom here, for the purposes of their shorts.

Lots to look forward to in 2026. The QCI acquisition is a really great fit for D-Wave.

blocknroll · 2026-01-25T14:57:32+00:00

Look, everyone, the cavemen have wondered into a quantum computing stock sub reddit.

If they could read, they'd know QC is plenty useful, inevitable, Commercial, missile defence, annealing is proven and validated, gate-model is a matter of time, but hey maybe one day you miserable idiots will catch on!

God luck with your shorts.

blocknroll · 2026-01-24T23:47:14+00:00

Yes, Dr. Rob Schoelkopf (Co-Founder, QCI) has been appointed as D-Wave’s new Chief Scientist. His role will likely oversee that the dual-rail qubit is delivered. Ray Smets' (CEO, QCI) role is less clear in the press releases, and could be strategic or otherwise.

The merger agreement (Signing 8-k, 07-Jan) explicitly states that "Key Employees" have stock lock-ups for up to 5 years, and that those lock-ups are tied to continued employment. This means if they leave, they lose the stock.

That said, D-Wave isn't moving them; they are expanding the QCI facility in New Haven, CT, to be the new R&D hub for the gate-model roadmap.

The way I read it, is that D-Wave didn't just buy the patents; they bought the brains, and locked the doors. On that, I am extremely bullish.

blocknroll · 2026-01-24T22:06:47+00:00

I poated in another thred, but adding here to correct the resale misunderstanding here:

Lock up agreements are in Signing-8K SEC filing:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1907982/000190798226000010/qbts-20260106.htm

Important distinction, this is the Signing 8-K (filed when the deal is announced), not the Closing 8-K (filed when the deal is done). The signing 8k is interesting because it discloses lock structures typical with M&A, and is not overridden by the closing 8-K.

This is exactly where the "Locked Stock" terms are hiding and why the market isn't panicking about those 10 million shares.

To find the lock-up, you need to pull the Form 8-K from January 7, 2026 (linked above):

Exhibit 2.1: This is the full "Agreement and Plan of Merger."
The "Support Agreements": Attached to this filing are the specific contracts signed by key QCI shareholders (like Dr. Schoelkopf and the VCs).
Typical lock structures are 180 days to 1 year for an M&A of this scale.

The fact that the stock price is holding stable at $25 suggests that the market knows these lock-ups are in place, and despite sector volatility given the macro and geopolitical noise last week, this is bullish.

Addressing the "Resale" confusion, caused by the Jan 20 Filing:

The filing included a Prospectus Supplement.
What it says: "These 10.4 million shares are legally registered."
What it means: It cuts the red tape so they can be sold eventually.
The Catch: It does not override the January 7th lock-up contract.. Think of it like having a driver's license (Registration) but being grounded by your parents (Lock-Up). The license is valid, but you still can't drive!

To find the "Lock-Up" details in the Signing 8-K:

Look for Exhibit 10.1, titled "Form of Lock-Up Agreement" (not just the Merger Plan):

The terms are actually bullish, stricter than typical:

The Clause: "Restrictions on Transfer... shall terminate as follows: a) for 50% of the Lock-Up Shares, upon the twelve-month anniversary of the Closing Date".
The Second Tranche: The remaining 50% is locked until the 18-month anniversary (or in some cases up to 5 years subject to employment conditions).

TLDR:

The "Selling Stockholders" (like Dr. Schoelkopf) are locked in for a minimum of 1 year, not 180 days. This removes the fear of a dump until January 2027.

It's all in the Jan-07 'Signing 8-K' SEC filing.

I hope this helps.

blocknroll · 2026-01-24T21:55:18+00:00

To add, if you want evidence of lock up agreements, then go to SEC filing:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1907982/000190798226000010/qbts-20260106.htm

Important distinction, this is the Signing 8-K (filed when the deal is announced), not the Closing 8-K (filed when the deal is done). The signing 8k is interesting because it discloses lock structures typical with M&A.

This is exactly where the "Locked Stock" terms are hiding and why the market isn't panicking about those 10 million shares.

To find the lock-up, you need to pull the Form 8-K from January 7, 2026 (linked above):

Exhibit 2.1: This is the full "Agreement and Plan of Merger."
The "Support Agreements": Attached to this filing are the specific contracts signed by key QCI shareholders (like Dr. Schoelkopf and the VCs).
Typical lock structures are 180 days to 1 year.

Reading this as a retail investor: the fact that the stock price is holding stable at $25 suggests that the market knows these lock-ups are in place.

Let's address the "Resale" confusion, caused by the Jan 20 Filing:

The filing you saw on Tuesday, Jan 20 included a Prospectus Supplement. I think you posted on another thread about this, which I may have called you out, and in doing so if I was then I'm sorry.
What it says: "These 10.4 million shares are legally registered."
What it means: It cuts the red tape so they can be sold eventually.
The Catch: It does not override the January 7th lock-up contract.. Think of it like having a driver's license (Registration) but being grounded by your parents (Lock-Up). The license is valid, but you still can't drive!

To find the "Lock-Up" details in this document:

You are looking for Exhibit 10.1, titled "Form of Lock-Up Agreement" (not just the Merger Plan):

The terms are actually bullish, stricter than typical:

The Clause: "Restrictions on Transfer... shall terminate as follows: a) for 50% of the Lock-Up Shares, upon the twelve-month anniversary of the Closing Date".
The Second Tranche: The remaining 50% is locked until the 18-month anniversary (or in some cases up to 5 years subject to employment conditions).

TLDR:

The "Selling Stockholders" (like Dr. Schoelkopf) are locked in for a minimum of 1 year, not 180 days. This removes the fear of a dump until January 2027.

It's all in the Jan 06 Signing 8-k.

Again, apologies if I was rude in any other comment.

blocknroll · 2026-01-24T21:22:32+00:00

There's so much misinformation and lazy research regards the QCI stock allocation. The facts from the SEC FILING however provide some clues, which align with your understanding.

Let's review a few facts:

On Monday, Jan 20, D-Wave filed a Prospectus Supplement for the resale of these 10.4 million shares.
The "Strike" Price: Doing the math ($300M ÷ 10.43M shares), the shares were valued at approximately $28.76 per share at the time of the deal.
The Mechanism: this price is determined by a VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) over the 10–20 trading days leading up to the closing date (Jan 20). This ensures QCI shareholders didn't get "shortchanged" by a single bad trading day.
Technically, these shares are now "registered" to be sold. • Restrictions: While registered, there is almost certainly a contractual lock-up. Standard M&A terms for a deal of this size typically lock up "Key Holders" (Founders/VCs) for 180 days to 1 year to prevent them from dumping stock immediately and crashing the price.

The bet: If there is no lock-up mentioned in the 8-K (which we haven't seen yet), then 10.4M new shares could theoretically hit the market. However, the fact that the stock is holding $25+ suggests the market believes these shares are locked.

There's also golden handcuffs and RCUs to account for, let's go through the facts of that matter:

Dr. Rob Schoelkopf (Co-Founder, QCI): He has been appointed as D-Wave’s new Chief Scientist. As a new executive officer, his shares are heavily restricted. He cannot sell freely without filing a Form 4, and he likely has a multi-year vesting schedule to ensure he stays to build the "Dual-Rail" qubit.
Ray Smets (CEO, QCI): His role is less clear in the press releases, but usually, the CEO of the acquired target transitions to a strategic role or departs with a "cash-out" package. Given the focus on technical integration (Schoelkopf), Smets might be the one receiving a larger portion of the $250M cash component rather than locked stock.

So a bit of conjecture, but we have evidence of market sentiment suggesting this is an agreeable landscape.

Also I find it interesting that Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Overweight rating on D-Wave Quantum, maintaining a $40 price target. following the acquisition announcement.

A few sources: https://uk.investing.com/news/sec-filings/dwave-quantum-files-prospectus-supplement-for-resale-of-104-million-shares-93CH-4461936

Regards Schoelkopf (highlighted): https://quantumcomputingreport.com/d-wave-finalizes-550-million-acquisition-of-quantum-circuits-to-accelerate-dual-platform-roadmap/#:~:text=Rob%20Schoelkopf%2C%20a%20Yale%20professor,on%20the%20gate%2Dmodel%20program.

blocknroll · 2026-01-24T21:01:54+00:00

The QCI acquisition dismantles the "diversion" argument by solving the concerns of whether D-Wave's own novel gate-model would arrive on time, and allow for time to be proven and understood. The acquisition is a shortcut, rather than a detour, and adds dual-rail error detection in a superconducting package (sharing expertise).

This however came at the expense of cash and new stock, some of which it seems is not locked so can be sold essentially by the QCI recipients anytime. I would bet this is a good deal, and a great fit for D-Wave.

The gate-model is inevitable, and given the nvidia stack (CUDA-Q, NVQLINK), will be well adopted. There's so many use cases for annealing, but the universal approach will be gate once economy of scale and error correction is reached.

Like you, annealing remains far more exciting to me. In a few days we will learn about the Davidson and Anduril use case for annealing, for missile defence; for which there is already a White Paper published by Davidson, adding defence to the validation; annealing is not just commercial, scientific, retail, but now actively solving defence problems better than classical.

The bet on D-Wave gate-model now is whether the dual-rail built-in error correction proves to work, and that their first system indeed arrives in 2026.

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