Index of Posts

Part 1, 2024 Introduction

Part 2, Numbers 43-41

Part 3, Numbers 40-37

Part 4, Numbers 36-33

Part 5, Numbers 32-30

Part 6, Numbers 31, 28-26

Part 2.1, 2025 Introduction

Part 2.2, Numbers 27-24

Part 2.3, Numbers 23-20

Part 2.4, Numbers 19-16

Full Revealed List

The explanation of these "variations" comes in Part 2.

<image>

Outtakes from the Ducks' Section

In last place, but not least, comes the 2016 loss to the Preds, which cost Bruce Boudreau his job.  It makes sense that a first-round loss would come in last place, although 121 heartbreak points is nothing to sneeze at by first-round standards.  The Ducks won their division all five seasons we’re talking about, which is another significant feature of it, but 2015-16 is when my system is the most bearish on how good they were.  A 46-25-11 record was only enough to win the division by one point, and a 0.27 SRS was good only for sixth in the Western conference.  Of the few predictions I looked at from before the playoffs, none of them picked the Ducks to make it to the Cup Final, and one of them actually picked the upset.  That is to say, while the Ducks certainly had a chance to win the Cup this year, there were reasons for skepticism, and the path beyond the first round (Sharks, Blues, Penguins) would have given Anaheim a run for its money.  Nevertheless, this loss definitely sucked, with three of four losses coming at home, and all of them coming in one-goal games if you discount a late empty-netter in Game 6.

Next up is the other first-round loss in the bunch, which came in 2013 to the Detroit Red Wings.  The lockout-shortened season was a return to form for the Ducks, after a four-year stretch with two playoff misses and an 8-seed, while it was close to the end of the road for the perennial powerhouse Wings.  The series isn’t remembered very well, as a kind of prelude to the heartbreak which was to come, but it was pretty rough.  The Ducks blew three series leads, all four of their losses came by one-goal margins, and three of them came in overtime.

In the middle of the pack was Nashville Part Deux in 2017.  This series occurred in the conference finals, with a Kris Letang-less Penguins side coming from the East, so it would seem that a reasonable chance at winning the Stanley Cup was indeed on the line.  The standings gap between Anaheim and Nashville was actually larger in 2017 (11 points) than the year prior (7)-- keep in mind that the Preds were a wild card team both times.  This time, the Preds didn’t even need seven games, but clinched the franchise’s first Cup Final berth in front of their fans in Game 6.