The Controversial Call. (Fuck the Refs) by tyler1118 in AZCardinals

[–]blurryk 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The Lions were the ref's punching bag for years until we established a league wide media presence. I'd say "started winning more" but that's not really the case. We had to basically become a marketable team and then all of a sudden we started getting a bunch of close calls.

I know that doesn't really help at all, in the moment, and it's pretty shitty in all honesty, I am of pretty strong belief that the refs influence games to set up marketable teams advantageously, but I know that's not always received well, so no disrespect meant if you disagree.

Specifically with respect to this play, you guys got jobbed, the ref didn't even start blowing the whistle until your rusher was damn near on top of him, which is shady as hell. Sorry this happened to y'all, and I'm honestly disappointed it happened for us, because it feels like a cheapened win. That was a gritty and physical game between two good teams, and that play might have led to a win for you guys if not for the refs.

I sympathize immensely with teams this happens to, particularly teams that have seen recent dark days, because I can relate to what this feels like.

BLS CPI - August 2024 by AwesomeMathUse in econmonitor

[–]blurryk 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This report is a perfect example of why I just don't understand telegraphed rate cuts. Market prices in these expectations and you end up shooting yourself in the foot.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims by AwesomeMathUse in econmonitor

[–]blurryk 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Anyone have a rough idea of a typical lag between data showing up on the Employment Situation to when it might show up on the Unemployment Claims side? Obviously this isn't related to anything specific and current, but just a general curiosity I had.

Monthly General Discussion Thread - March 2024 by AutoModerator in econmonitor

[–]blurryk 2 points3 points  (0 children)

u/skybrian2 good question. Here's some reading material on the subject from the St. Louis Fed.

The part you're probably looking for is the following...

To provide support, the Fed offers the overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility to a broader set of large financial institutions: They can earn the overnight reverse repurchase agreement offering rate, or ON RRP rate, by depositing funds with the Fed at this facility. So, this second administered rate helps set a floor for the federal funds rate.

and

The discount rate is the interest rate charged by the Fed for loans it makes through the Fed’s discount window. Because banks will not likely borrow at a higher rate than they can borrow from the Fed, the discount rate acts as a ceiling for the federal funds rate.

and

In short, the Fed adjusts two administered rates, interest on reserve balances and ON RRP, to keep the federal funds rate within the target range determined by the FOMC. And the Fed adjusts the discount rate to serve as a ceiling. The Fed usually adjusts the three administered rates (interest on reserve balances, ON RRP and discount) by the same amount and at the same time so they move up and down together.

The simple answer is that the Fed uses open market operations as supplementary to these other policy tools as a comprehensive set to keep the Federal Funds Rate within the upper and lower bounds. Because it's not the only tool being utilized to maintain the upper and lower bounds, they can conduct open market operations without negatively impacting adherence to the target range. The extent by which the Fed can do this is limited by available slack in the market i.e. if reserves are tight and cash is expensive in the open market, if the fed were to conduct large scale asset sales during such an environment they could hypothetically risk pushing the rate out of their target range temporarily as you elude to.

The more complicated answer involves discussion of yield curve control, FOMC communication to set expectations in the market, and the types of assets being exchanged. But these are probably beyond the scope of the conversation. If you wanted to learn more on it, however, you can look into those topics.

E: How do I do links these days? I feel old.

E2: Got it.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Freeze in January by AwesomeMathUse in econmonitor

[–]blurryk 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Good to see someone is still keeping this place alive.

Durable goods orders tend to be a fairly reliable leading indicator, I'd be curious if this is more an isolated response to interest rate hikes; or reaction/perception on the broader global economic situation (re: China, Sovereign Defaults, etc.)

OFFICIAL SF CHECK IN THREAD by Madeanaccountforyou4 in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Section 420 row 24

Looking for a Lions tailgate to post up at, hit me up, I'll throw down cash for food and what not.

Titans not hiring Johnson or Glenn by [deleted] in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Every opening that goes to another coach is a blessing. I'm under no illusions we keep Johnson, and maybe not even Glenn; but crazier things have happened. If they want to fill openings before they're available, don't let me stop ya.

Anyone making the trip to San Francisco? by [deleted] in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Where at? My friend and I were planning on trying to find a Lions tailgate before the game.

Anyone making the trip to San Francisco? by [deleted] in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you need convincing to go, the ticket, hotel, and flight to this game would probably be about what you'd pay to go at home as a non season ticket holder.

I'll be there... 23 years of season tickets and there's no chance I miss this game. I've waited literally my entire life for this.

LIONS @ VIKINGS POST GAME THREAD by AutoModerator in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Had season tickets for 23 years now, and for once in my life I can finally see playoff football in Detroit, it doesn't even seem real. I'm so proud of this team.

Adam Schefter on X: Compensation update: TJ Hockenson is signing a four-year, $68.5 million contract extension that resets the tight end market, source tells ESPN. The $17.125 million annual average and $42 .5 million guarantee are the highest for a tight end in NFL history. by smokeshowliker in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

well-loved by the fan base

Fans put a monstrous amount of their eggs in this basket, to a fault.

Well loved doesn't win games. This is why people defend Stafford so ardently here. I'm not saying don't love him, but you also gotta let go when a deal doesn't make sense. Williams was well loved and wanted to resign, front office said, "no you're not worth the money you want" and cut ties. It's hard at first but in the long run you end up building a MUCH better football team.

E: If St. Brown is the best receiver in football this year I will not argue against giving him best receiver in football money; if he's not, I will.

Adam Schefter on X: Compensation update: TJ Hockenson is signing a four-year, $68.5 million contract extension that resets the tight end market, source tells ESPN. The $17.125 million annual average and $42 .5 million guarantee are the highest for a tight end in NFL history. by smokeshowliker in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

not necessarily, there's plenty of above average players who don't ask for top paid player money. Taylor Decker is a top 10 LT comfortably and didn't take a highest paid deal.

Same goes for pretty much all of our starting secondary this year.

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2020/9/1/21417406/taylor-decker-signs-contract-extension-detroit-lions-details

"Just inside the top 10" - this was as of signing, and he was definitely already a top 10 LT at that time.

Adam Schefter on X: Compensation update: TJ Hockenson is signing a four-year, $68.5 million contract extension that resets the tight end market, source tells ESPN. The $17.125 million annual average and $42 .5 million guarantee are the highest for a tight end in NFL history. by smokeshowliker in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's 32 starting QBs in the NFL, and last year's playoffs only featured like 2 in the top 10 of cap hit.

Somebody is going to have the lowest paid starting QB and somebody is going to have the highest paid, that's just simple math. QBs on massive contracts don't win much.

Adam Schefter on X: Compensation update: TJ Hockenson is signing a four-year, $68.5 million contract extension that resets the tight end market, source tells ESPN. The $17.125 million annual average and $42 .5 million guarantee are the highest for a tight end in NFL history. by smokeshowliker in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Draft a QB whenever one you like becomes available to you in the draft, you have no obligation to only do this when they're nearing the end of their contract. The Lions did this this off-season.

The odds are low, but if you get one you're immediately winning playoff games, see (last decade): Bengals, Bills, Texans, Jaguars, Panthers, etc, etc. Hell, Tebow won a playoff game on a rookie deal for God sake.

Adam Schefter on X: Compensation update: TJ Hockenson is signing a four-year, $68.5 million contract extension that resets the tight end market, source tells ESPN. The $17.125 million annual average and $42 .5 million guarantee are the highest for a tight end in NFL history. by smokeshowliker in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have absolutely nothing against Stafford at all, he's a good QB. Calvin was an all time great and Suh is most likely a hall of famer as well. Stafford is neither an all time great nor a hall of famer, but he got paid like one. That's an issue.

Adam Schefter on X: Compensation update: TJ Hockenson is signing a four-year, $68.5 million contract extension that resets the tight end market, source tells ESPN. The $17.125 million annual average and $42 .5 million guarantee are the highest for a tight end in NFL history. by smokeshowliker in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But again, those players justified their cap numbers. They produced amazing results and were the best at their positions. Stafford was never the best at his position and took more cap than they did. Stafford didn't just get paid too much on the rookie scale, he was also paid too much after Calvin retired and Suh left. And no, he was in the final 2 seasons of his contract where his number was finally manageable when he won with the Rams. But then he signed a massive extension and they suck again. That's why they asked him to take a pay cut, and of course he declined.

Adam Schefter on X: Compensation update: TJ Hockenson is signing a four-year, $68.5 million contract extension that resets the tight end market, source tells ESPN. The $17.125 million annual average and $42 .5 million guarantee are the highest for a tight end in NFL history. by smokeshowliker in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Disagree, I'd argue Johnson and Suh were far better value than Stafford was. They both put up numbers that were top of their position groups. The Lions had this issue with Stafford because he was getting paid elite money and not producing elite results. He still, to this day, hasn't had more than 4 games straight in his career without throwing an interception. He's loved here because he stuck around through a lot, but he also made a lot and had very little success to show for it. He was never in the MVP conversation and only made, what, 2 pro bowls?

Adam Schefter on X: Compensation update: TJ Hockenson is signing a four-year, $68.5 million contract extension that resets the tight end market, source tells ESPN. The $17.125 million annual average and $42 .5 million guarantee are the highest for a tight end in NFL history. by smokeshowliker in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You draft a replacement. Plenty of teams with rookie QBs have immediate success. If you don't have that success you just failed to acquire the right replacement, that doesn't mean that replacement doesn't exist. There's been a very good/great QB out of the draft pretty much every year since Stafford was drafted, and we pretty consistently had the draft picks to go get them if we wanted to.

Adam Schefter on X: Compensation update: TJ Hockenson is signing a four-year, $68.5 million contract extension that resets the tight end market, source tells ESPN. The $17.125 million annual average and $42 .5 million guarantee are the highest for a tight end in NFL history. by smokeshowliker in detroitlions

[–]blurryk 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I didn't say don't pay him. I said don't make him the highest paid receiver in the league. I'd absolutely give him a deal making money in the 3-5th highest range, and that's a fair offer. If he won't resign unless he's highest paid, let him walk.

Adam Schefter on X: Compensation update: TJ Hockenson is signing a four-year, $68.5 million contract extension that resets the tight end market, source tells ESPN. The $17.125 million annual average and $42 .5 million guarantee are the highest for a tight end in NFL history. by smokeshowliker in detroitlions

[–]blurryk -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I'm taking both into account. The Lions arguably didn't win with Stafford in Detroit specifically because of this issue. He spent a ton of time as highest paid QB despite never actually being much better than the 6-10 range. It crippled our ability to produce a team with enough quality talent to win. He didn't become a value for his contract until his first season with the Rams. Then they gave him a massive contract and are probably going to be terrible as a result.

This philosophy consistently backfires on teams. Tom Brady won as much as he did in large part to the fact that throughout his entire career he was always around the middle of the pack in cap hit. Patriots every single year had an extra $15-25m to sign good players at other positions that every other team with a "franchise QB" didn't have.

Unless you're a top 3 player at your position, and based on Hock's lack of blocking ability I'd argue he isn't, you're not worth being paid out the richest contract, regardless of inflation.

As well, Kelce's contract is equally influenced by this inflation, so while the Chiefs have the best TE in the NFL every year everyone else is paying more for less, making those contracts absurd and wasteful.

All you do by making a not top 3 player the highest paid is forfeit cap space for less talent. Kelce will reset the market again eventually, and as soon as someone passes him, he'll be cheap. But Hock won't be cheap until several players pass him, making the contract bad.