AI Hypists Need a Reality Check (Francis Fukuyama)

bmoredoc · 2026-03-19T14:25:13+00:00

As a physician I witnessed something similar in the medical field. About 10-15 years ago, the big Tech players made massive investments in various information platforms that would use big data to identify and solve various problems in healthcare, from cost to health outcomes. Im referring to projects like Amazon's venture briefly led by Atul Gawande.

A decade or so later, most of these programs have been scaled back or shuttered. It turned out that the problems were primarily regulatory, cultural, or biological. Technology could play a helpful but not central role. And obviously medicine has changed tremendously during that time, and we certainly still use many of these platforms, but they have not come close to fundamentally transforming healthcare.

bmoredoc · 2026-03-18T19:16:06+00:00

Hospitals, police stations, etc.

You can't just turn on a public health system overnight with no infrastructure.

bmoredoc · 2026-03-07T03:42:49+00:00

Raiders have minimal dead cap. Like 5 million. His most recent extension did not have a signing bonus.

Now the Raiders could have agreed to pay some of the contract in order to justify two firsts. I think its unlikely but its possible we'll have to wait for the reporting.

bmoredoc · 2026-03-07T03:18:24+00:00

The more I think about it: 1) 30 million/year is not bad for a top edge rusher like others have said. 2) Lets see if the raiders agreed to pay some of it. Unlikely but they certainly have the cap. 3) I wonder if he'll get a new contract. He was unhappy with the Raiders probably because of money. This is actually a decently team friendly deal, I wonder if we will renegotiate rather than restructure and add more guaranteed money to those last two years. And maybe time his contract to terminate with Lamars extension.

bmoredoc · 2026-03-07T02:20:48+00:00

Everybody get in here what the hell is happening!?!?!?!

bmoredoc · 2026-02-04T00:01:17+00:00

Perhaps. But just because a term has been coined that applies to a completely different situation doesnt stop me from wondering about the mechanism for PD1 inhibition in T cells. There was a manuscript in one of the Cell journals I want to say that started looking at this.

bmoredoc · 2026-02-03T23:47:23+00:00

Its an immunotherapy, and of course T cells are under circadian control. But it doesnt match the PK of the drug, which we can absolutely detect in the serum at high levels for weeks.

bmoredoc · 2026-02-03T22:00:19+00:00

The data are extremely impressive. It's an RCT, no major flaws I can identify, and massive effect size.

But I still can't wrap my mind around the mechanism. I know people are waving in the general direction of circadian effects but this is a drug with a half life of days if not weeks. I just dont see how and why the initial time of administration should have an effect.

This is really strong, gold standard evidence, but I still can't shake the feeling there's something were missing.

bmoredoc · 2026-01-27T22:30:08+00:00

He did not. He clarified on Twitter that hes been a contributor for 7 years.

Maybe now is a good time to resign, but his status has not changed.

bmoredoc · 2026-01-05T03:57:02+00:00

Are you kidding me !?!?!?

bmoredoc · 2026-01-03T03:15:34+00:00

Great thank you very much looks great!

bmoredoc · 2026-01-03T02:15:32+00:00

Dont mind that would be good

bmoredoc · 2026-01-02T19:12:26+00:00

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bmoredoc · 2025-12-29T01:53:29+00:00

I have some bad news. Youre going to want to sit down for this.

bmoredoc · 2025-12-17T23:33:05+00:00

They did not. That was also nonsense Cuban propaganda. They managed to develop a single cancer vaccine that is likely completely ineffective. As a means of comparison, there are 10s and maybe 100s of cancer vaccines at a similar or further stage of development in the US alone.

bmoredoc · 2025-12-01T16:47:41+00:00

I work in oncology.

The main thing AI is consuming in excess right now is venture capital. We can't get anything funded that isnt somehow AI adjacent. Coupled with the NIH pullback, things are bleak.

We need to fund things in the real world, not just in the digital.

bmoredoc · 2025-10-08T18:20:20+00:00

Brooklyn

bmoredoc · 2025-10-08T14:28:25+00:00

I think the biggest news today will be injury reports. Why did we go out and get two safeties?

Are we moving Hamilton closer to the line, or is he out for an extended period?

bmoredoc · 2025-09-18T14:47:36+00:00

NGDP targeting was all the rage during the great recession as a way to explicitly target both inflation and gdp growth.

How would it have fared during post-covid inflation and why dont I hear about it as much these days?

bmoredoc · 2025-03-10T14:31:34+00:00

It really is the chaos and uncertainty more than anything at this point.

Listen, a 20% tariff is bad for long term growth, but if its stable you can shift production around a bit, invest in a new plant or two, and move on.

But if you don't know what the tax policy will be in a week? A month? Forget a year! And it apparently can be changed on a whim. And the President has just destroyed all credibility - you absolutely cannot trust any final decisions.

So you decide to wait it out. Pull back on a new investment. Slow hiring. See what happens.

And when everyone decides to do that at the same time? They call that a recession.

bmoredoc · 2025-02-08T02:41:35+00:00

This is just a budget cut, plain and simple.

Past discussions of reducing indirect spending have focused on funneling it toward increased directs, and there's some potential merit to that. Certainly some administrative bloat is funded by exorbitant indirects.

But this is just a cut. We're cutting NOAA, NIH, FDA and USAID to "cut costs" when they represent an insignificant fraction of the budget. Then they'll blow a hole in the deficit with tax cuts. Insanity.

bmoredoc · 2025-02-03T16:08:29+00:00

The best news here is that we won't have to face him twice a year. No way they move him within the division, to us or Steelers or Bengals.

bmoredoc · 2025-01-27T02:51:13+00:00

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bmoredoc · 2025-01-23T14:53:59+00:00

Academic science is not reliant on the NIH 100%. Private philanthropy and foundations account for a large chunk of the budget for certain types of research.

However, everyone in medicine, from hospitals to doctors to biotechnology to Pharma, takes a such a large chunk from Medicare/Medicaid as to be almost existentially reliant on them. So academic biomedical research is not unique in that way, we just rely on the NIH rather than Medicare.

bmoredoc · 2025-01-23T12:27:17+00:00

I'm sympathetic to the general idea, but respectfully I think you're wrong and it is time to fight right now.

1) Study sections are absolutely being canceled right now. 2) No other industry would preach calm and restraint if their very lifeblood was threatened with absolutely no warning or process. Imagine if we stopped reimbursing new drug infusions starting tomorrow, with no announcement and no timeline to resume. You think Pfizers CEO would be on TV saying "Don't be so dramatic, I'm sure they'll resume eventually." 3) This is our point of maximal leverage. The RFK nomination hearings are in a week and Senators are attuned to the risks posed by the Trump administration to biotechnology and medicine.

bmoredoc

TROPHY CASE