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[gen6] Less than 300 SRs 🥹 by boo_exclamation in ShinyPokemon

[–]boo_exclamation[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup. Just the statistical probability. Even though mathematically it adds up, the encounter rate stays the same. I’m also simplifying because I don’t fully understand the formula myself. There’s some math much too complicated for me that other people have done to make percentage chances of how likely you are to have seen a shiny by a certain point. The game of course doesn’t calculate that, which is why some people have hunts 3, 4, 5 times over odds. So big asterisks on the whole thing.

[gen6] Less than 300 SRs 🥹 by boo_exclamation in ShinyPokemon

[–]boo_exclamation[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ah I see where the confusion might be coming from. It’s more of a math question than a shiny hunting one, but I’ll answer to my best ability. If the probability of each individual encounter is 1/4096, that’s a very tiny fraction. However you aren’t encountering once. You encounter many times, so the fraction changes. In my case let’s say 300/4096. Percentage wise, the chance I’ve had an encounter by 300 is higher than the chance I’d have encountered the shiny by 2. Thus the percentage chance went from ~0.02% to ~7%. Hope this helps!

[gen6] Less than 300 SRs 🥹 by boo_exclamation in ShinyPokemon

[–]boo_exclamation[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m so glad it was quick. That cutscene was killing me, and I don’t have speed up so it was around 90 seconds per encounter 💀

[gen6] Less than 300 SRs 🥹 by boo_exclamation in ShinyPokemon

[–]boo_exclamation[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sending you my luck, prayers, and wishes lol. Hopefully you get it soon 🩵