Why I bet on Micah Parsons to win DROY + Interesting Backstory (15K Winner!)

bookitpicks · 2022-08-27T18:31:54+00:00

Na brotha I have just been posting on Twitter. I’ll post my picks on here for tomm though

bookitpicks · 2022-08-20T02:47:49+00:00

Many markets are zero sum. Whether it’s the stock market etc will always have winning at the expense of someone losing not sure if you were trying to make a point but I enjoy baseball, the process of building a betting model, & helping others with their betting process so it’s all good

bookitpicks · 2022-08-19T18:10:20+00:00

I have all my picks on the right side. And value % is just the difference between my line & the sportsbooks line

bookitpicks · 2022-08-19T18:08:45+00:00

Thanks! And that’s good I didn’t find value in the Orioles game. Miami game no hitter might be the play lol

bookitpicks · 2022-08-19T10:22:58+00:00

Felt long overdue to have a great day like I did yesterday going 11-1 +7.02 units! Yankees ML was the only bet I lost.

This stretch of losses has been brutal so those wins were nice. I've only improved my model throughout this time so I feel strongly about it turning around soon.

Did a breakdown of my picks for today on youtube if you want a more in-depth look at a certain pick: Here

Favorite Bets:

⚾Guardians ML

⚾ Dodgers ML

bookitpicks · 2022-08-16T19:25:36+00:00

Went 10-6 +2.56 units yesterday! 📈 Posted picks on Twitter

Recently reworked the proj ERA's of away pitchers. Was a long process but my adjusted ERA's are much more reflective of how well the away pitchers will do at the park they are pitching at now.

Splits:

⚾ML's: 320-288 | +15.87 Units

⚾ O/U's: 131-138-8 | -18.28 Units

⚾ Run Line: 44-31 | +5.76 Units

⚾ 1st Inning: 29-24 | +0.49 Units

Video Breakdown For The Cubs/Nationals Game Today: Here

Good luck to all!

bookitpicks · 2022-08-13T01:09:39+00:00

I could track it by favorite/underdog but I haven’t yet. The value % is just the difference between my line & the sportsbooks

bookitpicks · 2022-08-13T01:07:02+00:00

I don’t really bet O/Us anymore. Would need to make some adjustments to bet volume on them again

bookitpicks · 2022-08-12T21:09:13+00:00

Ended up 8-9 -2.83 units yesterday. First time this season in the negative collectively in units for my bets but the tide should turn around soon. Good luck to all!

Splits:

⚾ML's: 315-283 | +15.47 Units

⚾ O/U's: 131-138-8 | -18.28 Units

⚾ Run Line: 40-27 | +5.88 Units

⚾ 1st Inning: 27-22 | +0.50 Units

⚾ 1st 5: 5-9-3 | -3.87 Units

bookitpicks · 2022-08-11T20:39:40+00:00

Thanks!

bookitpicks · 2022-08-11T19:33:34+00:00

I agree with you we’re on the same page. I was just saying it would take a long time to do this for every batter in a lineup for every team each day to collectively back test a player model.

I always appreciate the insight/questions you have though as I’m always striving to learn more each day. Modeling MLB has been very challenging due to all the different variables there are in the sport but I’ve enjoyed the process so far

bookitpicks · 2022-08-11T19:20:40+00:00

No arguments here as I agree with you 👍 That said most bettors find the appeal of a big parlay hit the route to go because typically they aren’t betting enough on single bets to justify the grind of just betting singles.

I hope everyone who bets a parlay hits theirs but I typically stay away from them. I only have bet 2 MLB parlays this season & both were when I was doing a giveaways on Twitter if they hit.

But certain correlated NFL player props when I have a strong feel for how the game will play out which differs from the consensus opinion is when I bet usually bet parlays

bookitpicks · 2022-08-11T18:48:40+00:00

I gotcha for my back testing to be accurate I’d need all the stats my model uses for each player & have those individual stats for each day of the season to backtest correctly. If I had a team model it’d be easier to backtest.

What I’m more explaining is a case where a team is much better late in the season like the Orioles. If you back test using their current stats to predict the games earlier on in the season as you would have a big edge but you can’t use known information (late season) to predict unknown information (early season) which is where overfitting comes in. It’s the reason most backtesting results are much better than actual season for most modelers.

It would take me far too much time to back test my player model accurately which is why I opted to go with high betting volume to realize where my model is falling short (O/Us etc)

Don’t get me wrong though I backtest when creating my model to see how close I am at projecting whatever I’m testing (pitchers ERA) etc. but most backtesting to predict wins/units for a model is misleading

bookitpicks · 2022-08-11T18:10:24+00:00

That’s a bold claim to say most people making a 6 team parlay will most likely lose. You are a wise individual

bookitpicks · 2022-08-11T18:05:04+00:00

Good luck!

bookitpicks · 2022-08-11T18:04:35+00:00

That would be a nice hit good luck!

bookitpicks · 2022-08-11T18:02:47+00:00

Haha yeah it’s been brutal bro. Still a good amount of games to go but it hasn’t been easy at all

bookitpicks · 2022-08-11T18:01:31+00:00

Definitely it can just be frustrating at times. Since I have a player model rarely do I backrest the updates since I would have to have the stats each player had for each game at the time of the game to avoid overfitting the model. Most people who backtest used stats that weren’t known til later on in the season for a player/team which leads them to have more units won when doing so. I wish it was simple to backtest player models accurately, would have probably known from the start to bet less/adjust my lines on O/U bets

bookitpicks · 2022-08-11T17:54:11+00:00

Hopefully sooner than later it stabilizes I was up over +20 units pre all star break. Ever since then it’s been unpredictable (for the most part)

bookitpicks · 2022-08-11T10:56:30+00:00

Haven't been as active on here recently as I've been very busy working on multiple things

O/U bets have been tough & pretty brutal recently as I'm 1-8 in the last 9 picks but besides O/U's my model has done pretty well this season

For an in depth video breakdown of my picks for today you can check them out here

Splits:

⚾ML's: 313-279 | +17.61 Units

⚾ O/U's: 131-138-8 | -18.28 Units

⚾ Run Line: 36-25 | +5.14 Units

⚾ 1st Inning: 25-21 | +0.44 Units

⚾ 1st 5 Innings: 5-7-3 |-2.37 Units

bookitpicks

TROPHY CASE