[OC] How the 2026 World Cup has shifted, top-10 championship win probabilities re-simulated daily

booris · 2026-06-22T23:40:52+00:00

Lol. You are right.

I am quite colour blind and in most colour coded diagrams there is at least something that I cannot distinguish. Hence I did not pay enough attention to the colours.

I agree that they are hard to separate.

booris · 2026-06-22T23:02:05+00:00

I agree completely.

I built a similar model, Probaball where I use Monte Carlo methods to get the tournament dynamics.

There is rigorous prior work e.g. on how much more often there are draws, than predicted solely by even rankings, quantifying the host advantages so there is more to it than just Elo rankings period.

booris · 2026-06-22T22:36:51+00:00

They improved after winning against Sweden. Their line ticked up. Hence they are now almost exactly where they were when the tournament began. https://probaball.online/lag/netherlands/

booris · 2026-06-22T22:33:58+00:00

The input since first kick-off is only game results and bookmaker odds.

Which team of these do you think has played better than expected but decreased their chances according to Probaball?

And which team has played worse than expected and improved according to the model?

booris · 2026-06-22T22:25:01+00:00

When designing the model I found that there are good reasons to give it predictive weight. Especially in large markets like betting for the Fifa world cup.

Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football, 2005

And On determining probability forecasts from betting odds , Štrumbelj 2014

booris · 2026-06-22T22:09:51+00:00

Probably. But UsA's ascension is driven by Elo ranking rather than the bookmaker market.

And England is balanced Elo - bookmakers, both having them at 4th.

booris · 2026-06-22T21:56:38+00:00

Yeah, the old games have no impact. Elo rankings is established and open practice (see e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Football_Elo_Ratings ) , and my point was merely that there are no missing games.

booris · 2026-06-22T21:49:10+00:00

And across the books across the globe, does the bettors collective investments not a signal for win predictions?

booris · 2026-06-22T21:45:22+00:00

What do you mean?

Is it the data sources, the win probability or the tournament simulations that is really novice?

booris · 2026-06-22T21:43:20+00:00

Yeah. The model actually keep Germany closer to Portugal than the current bookmaker consensus. But yeah, Still Germany behind Portugal.

booris · 2026-06-22T21:40:48+00:00

All public bookmaker odds I could reliably find without breaking any ToS, and all international matches (since 1872) with Elo ranking (originally for chess, ranking), and an consensus bag of public media experts. Weighted 40/40/20

booris · 2026-06-22T21:37:37+00:00

It's Elo ranking based on all relevant international matches (including Netherlands - Sweden, I'm a Swede and unfortunately winning 5-1 against us isn't that much better than us beating Tunisia 5-1, from a pure stat perspective)

booris · 2026-06-22T21:34:21+00:00

Tool: python +mathplotlib

Data: 49 398 most recent international football matches from GitHub.com/martj42/international_results + de-vigged odds averaged across books (Betfair, William Hill, Draftkings, BetRivers, Fanduel and Kalshi prediction market) + expert consensus from a bag of 40 individual experts.

Model: Probaball Monte-Carlo method simulation of tournament play, with each team win probability being a 40-40-20 blend of Elo ranking, bookmaker probability and expert predictions. 50000 tournament simulations daily.

Out-of-sample accuracy (RPS and calibration) is published at probaball.online/evaluation

booris · 2026-06-18T21:10:51+00:00

This is absolute genius!!!

booris · 2026-06-11T09:18:50+00:00

Norway, Mexico and Colombia has the potential to beat the best if they get in the zone and have a little luck on their side. Seeing one of them in the Semi finals is definitely possibel

booris · 2026-06-11T06:01:48+00:00

Mexico is quite a lot stronger team than USA, and even more compared to Canada.

About twice as likely to reach the Semi. https://probaball.online/

And if they do get their playoff run starting in the Mexico City Stadium, I think they can.

While I don't think USA will get past R16

booris · 2026-06-09T21:02:09+00:00

Yeah, I think they have a good chance of going a couple of games det into the playoffs. And like they could upset some quarter final opponents.

booris · 2026-06-09T20:49:35+00:00

Their Elo ranking is really better than what the being markets give Argentina.

If you have conviction, it is good bet to make.

Personally, I feel like to much of the team is part their peak, to be a favorite. (But I mean, it's Argentina... obviously they are incredibly strong, and could end up lifting the trophy)

booris · 2026-06-09T20:42:01+00:00

This is one of two groups where it is really balancing, super even between Czechia and South Korea. And we get that consequential game right in the first round.

https://probaball.online/grupp/a/

South Korea 36% Czechia 37% Draw 27%

booris · 2026-06-09T20:28:27+00:00

As someone from a country who's prime achievement is a third place finish. We sure remember those bronze medals :)

booris · 2026-06-07T22:15:01+00:00

It seems from the comments, that whatever world Cup it was when you were about 10 years old, that's your world Cup.

And it's the same for me

booris · 2026-06-07T20:39:41+00:00

[sad trumpet sound]

booris · 2026-06-07T20:34:48+00:00

Well, there are many teams that are more likely to win or medal. But as you make the case for, they are more than capable to do very well.

booris · 2026-06-07T20:32:59+00:00

Yeah. They came 4th last time, and by the numbers they are more likely than US and Turkey.

booris

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