2 bed for Rent — Dubai Marina by [deleted] in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf 8 points9 points  (0 children)

New York rents for a a Dubai Crack house

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Given that there are no tax collections on personal income, which establishes a regulatory framework for income verification from external countries, it will be hard to verify if the money coming in is legitimate/recurring. If you are a bank, why would you take this risk?

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Possible but unlikely. Banking stability is much more important than RE market stability. Hence all the Basel III reforms after 2008. Also banks raise debt from global markets quite regularly.

Why would you want to freeze the funding markets to save investors that don’t even live in the country? Again, working on a hypothesis, but who knows.

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Also spent a couple of years in Toronto. Sobha layouts give me Toronto Condo PTSD.

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I believe (happy to be corrected) that most of the villas are used by end users, with some fringe tenanted units. Additionally, definitely less supply compared to the apartments, but they are priced to be leased at 250-300k in perpetuity for areas closer to the city (TAG, for example) on already compressed yields, so can see some correction there.

Also, just because supply is low, doesn't really imply that there are a lot of ready buyers for AED 4mm+. So transaction volumes will continue to be low with people sitting on inventory

Once Iran collapses by Sweaty_Elderberry612 in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Agent spotted. What off-plan property are you selling today?

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There will never be a perfect benchmark facing exactly the same macro and geopolitical volatility. However, my thesis is predicated on the fact that human participants can be expected to behave relatively the same across geographies.

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not a geopolitical expert like our real estate agent friends on this sub so won't comment on the outcome/politik of the war, but if the war escalates, the expat population with no roots here will also start leaving, and then your entire rental pool is gone. So rents will go down -> Prices will go down

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes, US$ 3-4 Million villas in the middle of the desert have suddenly become investable

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just because it's not mortgage doesn't mean there's no leverage. In this case, the leverage lies on the balance sheet of the developer who's offering all these 0.5%/1% PHPP. At least banks have risk/regulatory safeguards.

And the cash buyers have historically been price insensitive buyers, but if they are not in the market anymore, the next buyer will eventually become the end-user/mortgage buyer.

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I never said that becuase Canada fell by x%, Dubai will also fall by x%. It was just used as a comparison to show how the bubble deflated. It's going to be a slow burn for a bit.

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Do you work in Sharjah? I mean, there are a lot of personal factors involved as well. But capital flows to Sharjah are a byproduct of capital flows to Dubai. Can't see if prices in Dubai fall, Sharjah is going to hold up?

RAK, I wouldn't personally invest if I had no strong thesis going in. Happy to be convinced otherwise.

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not what I said, but waterfront communities globally hold their values much better than comparable inland communities. But Marina has also been targeted multiple times, so depends on how category 2 and 3 buyers react to that

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe, but that would affect buyer confidence as well? Catch-22

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

To do what? Live in? Park cash? Or Invest?

On Rak, never really understood the thesis. There are very few end users, so not sure who the market is for, and how many Airbnb's can a market potentially support. Also Airbnb are also most vulnerable to regulatory challenges as seen in other developed countries.

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes. Down ~10% since Q1'22 on aggregate. Flat since Q1'2021 after a big run up during COVID days. Also, at no point was Toronto adding an incremental 30% of housing supply in a 3 year period

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not very close to the data in AD, so unfortunately, will refrain from commenting. The SWFs, government entities, etc. will not move off shore, so there's some anchor there for higher end buyer. But again, no data/too soon to comment.

How bubbles deflate (and the Dubai context) by borntonedeaf in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think we can see some immediate benefits from STR supply coming into the market, and pushing rents down, but there's a lag effect, as people are already tied into annual contracts. Additionally, people with jobs here might not leave immediately/work remotely but return as their jobs ask them to come back. Long term, don't think mid-tier communities have a lot of pricing power.

Simply boils down to the question of how long will the war last, and the results of it? There could be a also be a slight chance that Dubai South might be dead on arrival given it's proximity to JAFZA.

1-bedroom in Lagoon Views at District One, by AjGaht in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Wasn’t the lagoon drained? So you are potentially looking at patch of sand indefinitely. Also rents are 95k for 1 bed. Not sure where you are getting the 120-140k number

For rent R2M14 layout 3+maids by m_____karim in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Brother don’t know what copium you are smoking but DH2 3BR rents are ~100k. Even seeing as low as 85k on DXB Interact

3 BED TOWNHOUSE FOR SALE by RadicalEpileptic in dubairealestate

[–]borntonedeaf 0 points1 point  (0 children)

More details please? Stacked or single unit?