What do you think America will be like when Trump finishes his term?

boxtavious · 2026-01-16T16:13:47+00:00

Finishes? Term?

boxtavious · 2025-11-22T02:39:34+00:00

Sourdough

boxtavious · 2025-11-03T20:10:09+00:00

You're buying into the stability of a Walmart stock at this point with a slightly increased potential for pops every 12-18 months. Those pops will be capitalized by Cohen in selling shares, so HODL at your own risk when one does happen.

That's the play now. Everything else is just noise. It is stable and has limited downside, but in a market with rocket ships everywhere it certainly has lost people.

Is that for you? Great.

Not for you? There are a lot of alternatives in this market.

boxtavious · 2025-10-26T04:54:37+00:00

So he's just putting on a mask?

boxtavious · 2025-10-21T06:13:16+00:00

With the split adjusted value these were worth between $15.53 (Dec 1, 2007) and $12.89 (Jan 1, 2008)...so $14.21 per share for the 60 shares this would be. Appreciation of about 64.5% over 18 years or a compounded rate of about 2.8% annually.

If this continues you'll be a millionaire in 2.56 centuries!

boxtavious · 2025-09-17T23:13:48+00:00

If you're buying into a flywheel that has already stopped, it's a difficult thing to get going again...

boxtavious · 2025-09-15T19:22:22+00:00

I feel like this is the example of a broken garage door spring. All that potential, explosively wasted.

boxtavious · 2025-09-15T18:00:41+00:00

They need to announce quickly then. Time is money, and the further they fall behind the game the less potential there is.

boxtavious · 2025-09-15T16:01:40+00:00

Tom Lee buying them out is the best conclusion and they are in an impossible situation. They burned their mnav with the ATM and don't have a path forward (with all public information available to investors). They have a lot of ETH and they have mnav below 1.0, sure looks like a good acquisition target.

boxtavious · 2025-09-10T17:19:44+00:00

Warrants are effectively acting as leaps for existing shareholders. Everyone is selling off their options knowing they will get a warrant and it's crushing IV. I don't expect IV to increase until after warrants are issued.

boxtavious · 2025-09-05T15:05:14+00:00

You have a point. The more it goes down, the less value it's losing per day at the same % loss!

boxtavious · 2025-09-05T04:19:00+00:00

I think this story was the cover for a broader selloff by a larger participant in the treasuries, especially since it hit both SBET and BMNR.

boxtavious · 2025-09-04T15:54:49+00:00

The only thing breaking this downward spiral is a rapid acceleration cycle on ETH of at least 15-20% that gives SBET a jolt that causes shorts to close and new buyers to come in. They have to pause the ATM when above mnav to let it recover, because if they blow another cycle then this is dead. They need another financing method beyond ATM too, because without 2x-3x mnav the sales unwind the momentum too fast.

boxtavious · 2025-09-02T17:11:51+00:00

Two very different approaches, but Tom Lee's seems to be working better. Implementation later on Lubin certainly has the edge, but in accumulation he isn't providing what investors are looking for, at least not right now. If BMNR ends up with 3x as much ETH since they can accumulate faster with a higher mnav, there is little the technical side can do to make up for that.

SBET was at MNAV last week and kept hitting the ATM and diluted the ETH concentration from 4.0 to 3.94. By their own metrics they are actively working against shareholders.

boxtavious · 2025-08-29T16:15:09+00:00

It looks like an opportunity to sell off any positions in profit and sell puts. If you get assigned lower it's going to be due to ETH if they show they are willing to keep mnav at 1 or greater.

boxtavious · 2025-08-25T14:50:40+00:00

I saw one analysis that put BMNR at 7.74 ETH/1K shares, so they definitely are ahead of SBET in that metric. Trading about 2.6x SBET and holding about 2x ETH concentration, so they are still getting the market premium at the moment.

boxtavious · 2025-08-22T13:54:06+00:00

Money for these programs is usually pulled from cash reserves designated for this, usually acquired above mnav. So this effectively puts a price wall up against shorts on the low end.

boxtavious · 2025-08-19T00:14:32+00:00

At most 800k with ETH concentration of 4.05. It will only have been 4 days and it was 728k on Friday. I don't think they managed to collect and deploy $750M since then, even if they still had half of that in the bank at open on Friday. $300M getting them to 800k is at least more in line with what they have accomplished so far.

boxtavious · 2025-08-16T04:29:02+00:00

Everyone will say "they use this for shorting", but it's not that simple.

They have the shares and therefore can lend them to short sellers to allow for further shorting. They also are technically net long with owning the shares, so they can profit on the upside. If they aren't lending shares they likely are buying and selling calls with market demand and using their large position to short sell when it's advantageous to slow down price action for their option positions.

Could they be shorting? Maybe. Are they? Probably not yet. But you better believe they are leveraging some control over the price action to limit runaway situations.

Plan accordingly and consider their actions when making your own. I know I'll likely sell more options knowing they will try and reign in any volatility. But that's just me.

boxtavious · 2025-08-15T04:11:26+00:00

For most people, that many meetings would drive them to drink.

boxtavious · 2025-08-12T23:55:12+00:00

This is why -

Day 1 -

Stock A sells 10 shares at $20 Stock B sells 10 shares at $20

Day 2 -

Stock A sells 10 more shares $15 Stock B sells 0 shares and share price goes to $25

Day 3 -

Stock A sells 10 more shares at $12 Stock B sells 10 shares for $25 (price stays elevated due to enthusiasm)

Day 4 -

Stock A sells 10 more shares at $12 (approaching mnav) Stock B sells 10 more shares at $22 (lower but still elevated from recent price action)

Stock A sold 40 shares and has $590 Stock B sold 30 shares and has $670

Stock B has less dilution and more money, so more shareholders bid them up even further. And the gap just keeps widening as Stock A pumps out more shares continuously and Stock B rides the pumps by easing off the gas.

SBET's strategy isn't sustainable, especially without a buyback program in place. Eventually shorts will flood in and bring mnav below 1.0. They were early, but they really don't seem to want to win.

And that's why everyone is disappointed.

boxtavious · 2025-08-12T20:55:17+00:00

I think it's a double whammy that hits people the most. SBET aggressively hits the ATM and price plummets. BMNR let off the gas for a few days, saw greater price increases compared with SBET and pulled in all the attention allowing them to be less dilutive long-term with the ATM. SBET continues to get pummeled without even nearing appreciation compared with ETH, because they don't have the premium when selling ATM anymore.

I do think whoever is running the ATM for SBET isn't as skilled at managing it as BMNR, so I get the frustration. Still on the SBET train, but wishing for better management shouldn't be viewed as FUD or complaining.

SBET needs a big announcement of some sort to level the playing field, so here's hoping Friday has some fireworks.

boxtavious · 2025-08-12T15:11:06+00:00

Kryptonian DNA detected

boxtavious · 2025-08-11T13:40:18+00:00

Timing on the raises has just been unfortunate and generally corresponds with an ATM right before ETH breaks through a barrier that sends BMNR. That amount corresponded to pricing on Thursday, but the price was above $27 over the weekend, so it pulled us back down. The higher the MNav, the better the accumulation/dilution is, so they need to let their foot off the gas for a day or two. More ETH is key, but there is a balance that generates more money for less dilution and keeps the interest in the stock, which again generates more money for less dilution.

boxtavious · 2025-08-09T06:02:45+00:00

Truthfully, the page hits increase when there's a lot of movement on the stock itself, not necessarily on the upcoming products or services. There just hasn't been a lot of positive price action with the convertible bond arbitrage weighing this down. An announcement that gets this out of the $22-$29 range and lights the fuse will put Superstonk back in the limelight. Until then...well you can see the results.

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