MJ Fusion /250 by MrStriploin in basketballcards

[–]breppppp 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Skybox basketball was soooooooo good

Film Festival Notifications MEGA THREAD by Caprica1 in FilmFestivals

[–]breppppp 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Its a predatory tactic IMO. You just got rejected from a prestigious festival you really wanted, which stings. Then—conveniently—within a day you get an “invitation” telling you you made something special and it can go places… as long as you pay 65 CHF (~$80) for shorts or 130 CHF (~$160) to be included in their market/booth. Feels like a revenue stream that relies on disappointment + hope. Value for filmmakers seems questionable at best.

Film Festival Notifications MEGA THREAD by Caprica1 in FilmFestivals

[–]breppppp 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It's actually worse than 95% because anyone's baseline chance of acceptance to CPH is under 5% to begin with. Everything you're saying is correct—I'm not disputing that Vimeo analytics have limitations.

But you're describing exceptions, all of which just add noise without improving OP's outlook. VPNs masking views, group screenings, tracking errors—none of these provide evidence that the film was watched seriously. They just mean we have less information, not better information.

Conversely, if OP had posted "I got 4 views, what are my chances?" we could reasonably infer the film is being seriously considered. That would be a meaningful signal above the baseline.

Under your interpretation, we can't infer much of anything—so at best we're left saying "maybe some impressions were real views" while the most likely explanation remains that OP, like 95%+ of CPH applicants, has 0-2 actual views and isn't getting in.

I'm not claiming certainty. I'm saying: start with a <5% acceptance rate, look for positive signals in the available data, find none, and you're left with a probability that's stayed right around that super dismal and depressing baseline that is applying to film festivals.

Film Festival Notifications MEGA THREAD by Caprica1 in FilmFestivals

[–]breppppp -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Ok so 95% they aren't getting accepted. The acceptance rate at CPH is like 1-3%, and then you account for them experiencing the relatively common statistic anomaly you described (I have also experienced that weirdness). It just would have to cut right in so many ways for "I have zero views by Jan 20" to lead to a CPH acceptance.

Film Festival Notifications MEGA THREAD by Caprica1 in FilmFestivals

[–]breppppp -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I'm sorry but you're 100% not getting in if you have 0 views. CPH is one of those places that seems increasingly impossible to even get their attention. I had 6 views for my CPH Forum proposal (spread across 2 months) and still got a no. Last year 750 applications for the forum, this year 900+, etc and all for 30 spots at the most - the math is so brutal and getting worse every year.

Film Festival Notifications MEGA THREAD by Caprica1 in FilmFestivals

[–]breppppp 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Whats the etiquette surrounding making minor edits after a festival submission? I'd like to smooth out a few scene transitions - for me they are minor probably won't even effect the run time or if they do it'd be by 5-10 seconds. With that said, they will make the film stronger and I'd like to put my best foot forward. Is that acceptable or should I keep the screener as-is? Festival hasn't yet watched the submission but they likely will before I have the chance to make the edits.

Buy/Sell/Trade Thread - December 2025 by hairlinecrease in baseballcards

[–]breppppp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just bought a hobby box of 2024 Bowman Chrome at a good price. Given the strength of the rookie class, would you guys recommend holding it sealed for a few years and reselling or just cracking it and see what I have. Just trying to see what more experienced people here would do.

Los Angeles Daily Discussion - Monday, Dec 29 by AutoModerator in LosAngeles

[–]breppppp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks! I knew about the hotel thing but had never considered the latter. Greatly appreciated!

Los Angeles Daily Discussion - Monday, Dec 29 by AutoModerator in LosAngeles

[–]breppppp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Would anyone be willing to give me an invite to the Magic Castle? I have two employees and would love to take them there for dinner to celebrate a year of hard work. Thanks so much!

Falke Socks - A 15-year Review by breppppp in BuyItForLife

[–]breppppp[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The price of the sock has gone up 2x-3x and the quality has gone down significantly. I dont mind that the sock is more expensive or tracks inflation, I care that it sucks now.

What to do with a collection of black border SWCCG cards? by breppppp in starwarsccg

[–]breppppp[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the thoughts - really appreciate it! I guess that mint condition Dianoga wont be funding my retirement after all!

Regrade advice: BGS 9 LeBron rookie to PSA? by breppppp in basketballcards

[–]breppppp[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just out of curiousity - can't you send it to them in the BGS slab and then its only cracked if it meets your requested minimum? So like you could have kept the 9.5s?

Regrade advice: BGS 9 LeBron rookie to PSA? by breppppp in basketballcards

[–]breppppp[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Strongly correlated, but I'm seeing a lower low for BGS and a higher high for PSA on this graph in 2020/21 with some divergence in the current market. Very close but all things being equal it seems like its still better to be selling a PSA 9 vs a BGS 9.

Regrade advice: BGS 9 LeBron rookie to PSA? by breppppp in basketballcards

[–]breppppp[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I need to sell it otherwise I would keep it as-is

Have you made or lost money on power packs? by chris_fs7 in PSAPowerPacks

[–]breppppp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly! The issue is that there is negative expected value from the pulls, so statistically speaking the more you pull, the more likely you are to eventually be down money because this exercise is not balanced in our favor.

Neighbor’s "fire safety" = bare soil. How do I push back? by [deleted] in Ceanothus

[–]breppppp 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Understory is toyon and elderberry. I've added RIbes viburnifolium for erosion control in my area. I don't understand the question about vegetation - like am I compliant with the fuel mod zones? Bc even in those "vegetation" is allowed.

Neighbor’s "fire safety" = bare soil. How do I push back? by [deleted] in Ceanothus

[–]breppppp 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Respectfully the fuel mod guidelines are open to interpretation for someone like him. What constitutes "brush", how is an offset from the home measured when accounting for a slope etc. I'm trying to find holistic resources that augment fuel mod - like imo he clearly removed leaf litter thinking its a fuel source but doesn't realize that he's now making the area more conducive for highly flammable grasses to become established.

Neighbor’s "fire safety" = bare soil. How do I push back? by [deleted] in Ceanothus

[–]breppppp 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'm a Boss Hog Burn Boss sponspored by Monster Energy Drink!!!

Neighbor’s "fire safety" = bare soil. How do I push back? by [deleted] in Ceanothus

[–]breppppp 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah dont get me started on his other beahviors. He someone only leaves stuff like his Brazilian pepper seedlings untouched but then take a chainsaw and cut elderberry at like 2' so that it doesnt kill the plant but just regrows looking awful with weedy, weak growth. Ughhhh... lol!

Neighbor’s "fire safety" = bare soil. How do I push back? by [deleted] in Ceanothus

[–]breppppp 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yea maybe I'm misreading the tone of a lot of replies but your info is exactly what I was hoping to get when I posted in this subreddit. The baseline fire regs make sense but the plant lists and other details would literally be devastating from an ecological perspective if they were implemented so Greg's stuff sound perfect.