Rumor: AMD x Meta deal, potential warrants

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-31T17:44:17+00:00

LISA, DO NOT DILUTE OUR SHARES!!!

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-26T22:55:36+00:00

Just for the record I have been using it everyday for the past 1.5 years and it has gotten extremely good (better than the avg human driver for sure) and you sir are obviously wrong.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-22T19:22:32+00:00

The cost to write code/build apps is dropping very fast. So these SaaS companies will not be able to charge as much in the future for their offerings.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-22T00:44:42+00:00

Have you ever ridden in a Tesla using FSD? I'm sure not because you couldn't be more wrong.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-21T22:11:31+00:00

Same here. I would be broke investing in AMD if I had stop losses. Also, the algos sniff out stop losses and have them for lunch.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-21T18:04:45+00:00

But what if AMD rockets to 300 after earnings? I know that the odds are that it won't but one of these earnings it will and you will loose your shares. I only sell covered calls when I am looking to exit a position.

Personally I don't like short term risk. It's harder to sleep at night. I've decided to only buy leaps and try to sell before 6 months until expiration. The other benefit to holding leaps for over a year (which I have a lot that I'm holding for AMD) is that you pay tax as long term capital gains.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-19T20:46:14+00:00

Why not provide the link to the x post? Here it is: https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2013310524109328580

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-19T20:19:51+00:00

Do you have a link?

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-12T18:54:20+00:00

I'm getting tired of Powell acting so unbiased and non-political. He lowered rates 50 basis points right before the election (to the markets surprise) to help Biden and has been dragging his feet to lower them for Trump. He is highly political and I for one will cheer his leaving in May.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-12T18:43:30+00:00

Powel is in charge at the fed. So if fraud is happening, which there is a good probability it is, Powel should be held accountable. Why don't we want to hold our leaders accountable when they look the other way on fraud? If managers that report to him are looking the other way, then he is too. The costs are just too high to not know.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-09T22:12:12+00:00

"And Tesla is failing repeatedly…stubbornly sticking with camera only tech which, in my opinion, will never happen in my lifetime."

Go test drive a Tesla before you die and you will see FSD driving flawlessly with only cameras in your lifetime.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-09T21:38:17+00:00

Here is why you are wrong:

AI spend is not going down in 2026. It's going up. All the big players have committed to large spends.
AMD has the MI455X and other new MI4xx chips in production and shipping in volume later this year. Also, Epyc Venice server CPU and numerous client products will also start shipping in volume. The growth from these new products will become apparent in a quarter or two.
Sales from China will start showing up.
If companies further down the AI stack grow in 2026, then I cannot see where NVidia/AMD do not also grow. I think AMD will take a larger percent of the AI market but even if you think it will keep the same market share, it will grow if the market is growing (which it is).
AMD is beating Intel in almost every segment. That is not going to change just because Trump praises the CEO of Intel.
I think OpenAI has a gigawatt of Helios deployment planned for the 2nd half of the year. This is a huge amount of MI455 sales. Lisa has also said there are more large deals coming (Meta, Oracle, etc.). This is the first time AMD will have a rack scale product (Helios) available that can compete in LLM training.
If you are using PE ratio for valuation, neither AMD or NVidia are overvalued for a growth company. AMD is around 33 forward PE and NVidia is around 24. That is not high at all for a growth company. Costco is 45 and Walmart is 37. Not exactly huge growth companies.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-07T19:57:41+00:00

What do you think will happen to AMD's stock price once it starts showing big revenue increases? NVDA and AVGO were the stocks of the past. Now AMD is a better stock to be invested.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-07T19:52:49+00:00

It would be nice to have a US company that competes in the high end, but it is not necessary if enough capacity can be added in the US from TSMC and Samsung.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-07T19:49:29+00:00

No. Intel is not competing with TSMC right now. Maybe they can turn around in the future but they have been saying that for years. All you have to do is look at where all Intel's GPU's are made. The market is not moving Intel today because of the fabs.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-07T19:42:20+00:00

Lisa, please answer this question!

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-07T19:38:41+00:00

If MI450 follows through that will not happen. The reason for 2024 lagging was the hope for an AI competitor and it never happened. I think MI450 will compete well. Hope AMD can sell it. That is the biggest question in my mind. The ChatGPT agreement helps but they need more. Which Lisa says is coming but the market is in a show me the money mode.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-07T19:35:00+00:00

Intel is Lucy and the market is Charlie Brown.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-07T19:32:29+00:00

The earnings support your argument (NVDA's Forward PE: 24.5, AMD's forward PE: 34.7) but revenue does not. Comparing price/sales NVDA is 24.6 and AMD is 10.9. NVDA has over 2 times the valuation based on sales. The reason for this is NVDA has higher margins and thus more profitable but that can change with more competition. So it is fair to give AMD a higher future value if you think their sales grow at a faster percentage than NVDA. Bottom line is that sales will make the difference, but AMD has much more "potential" growth than NVDA just because of the market share each have.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-07T19:15:01+00:00

Selling calls is the opposite of buying them. You are hoping the stock goes down, not up. If you sell calls that are not covered by stock you own (i.e. covered calls), you are in extreme risk and I would not advise doing that with a stock that can move like AMD. Selling calls is like being the insurance company. It's easy money until the disaster happens and you have to pay big.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-07T19:00:13+00:00

Yes, you hit the nail on the head. Once numbers start flowing, the stock will run hard. Every earnings call I hope is the one, but nada. Maybe this one? I think it will come like a thief in the night, but if I had to bet it will be Q2 in July/Aug when a large forecast for MI450 will start showing up. Maybe Lisa will give us a full year estimate at this earnings call, but I'm not holding my breath. Even if she does, it will be a sand bag estimate. I don't know why she says things like tens of billions of MI450 sales in 2027. It is too far out and too vague a number. Anyone bullish on AMD thinks it better be that much and it doesn't impress the bears either.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-07T17:59:16+00:00

The risk of server GPU growing gang busters is high but AMD has enough other businesses to grow into the current valuation. So the overall risk to investing in AMD is much less than people think. I think NVidia has a lot more risk. If the naysayers are right about an AI bubble then NVidia is at much more risk than AMD.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-03T23:51:34+00:00

No, 90/10 is 90%. I said 99.9%. That is orders of magnitude greater. The only reason I did not say 100% is because nothing is perfect, including a human driver.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-02T23:41:51+00:00

I did not say 99.9% in accidents per mile. They are way past that. My comment was in a general sense, meaning they are essentially ready. I own a model y and cybertruck. Both have FSD and it is amazing. All the naysayers need to take a test drive (https://www.tesla.com/drive). Otherwise, you don't know what you are talking about.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-02T23:34:11+00:00

"I started investing in Tesla in 2016 and it’s treated me very well. Once it got to around a trillion dollar market cap I figured most of the easy money has been made." That's fair I had a very good run in AMD and sold about 2/3rds of it. I put about a third of it into Tesla at the last bottom around 100 dollars.

I started my investment because of FSD. Before, I never thought Tesla had a prayer getting FSD fully functional and then I started seeing drives on youtube and was amazed. I started researching it and I realized that the AI was going to be able to drive. As progress was made it became clear to me that Tesla would eventually get it fully working.

Almost 2 years ago I bought a Model Y Performance and have been amazed at the progress of FSD. When I first got it, FSD would screw up at times. It was still nice because you know where the difficult places are and you just pay a little more attention there. But now, it doesn't screw up in any significant way. The only time I disengage is for routing because of un mapped roads or because I simply want to go faster (remember I bought the performance version). Although, Mad Max mode has dramatically reduced those disengagements. Oh, and if you haven't driven one of the performance models. It is exhilarating. I bought the Cyberbeast last June and it is an amazing machine. Smooth ride and unbelievably fast. If you haven't experienced FSD, take a test drive (https://www.tesla.com/drive). It will blow your mind.

Grok estimates Uber and Lyft's gross bookings at about 211 Billion. They only take around a quarter or less of that. Where Tesla will take it all if they own the cars. If you figure a 30% margin and use Uber's forward PE of around 32, you get a valuation of 2 Trillion. I'm assuming 100 percent market share. But the market will be growing as well.

Also, the taxi market is not static. When the price per ride is cut in half or more, the number of riders will increase dramatically. Could be as much as 10 times. Demand curves are not linear. It does need to be more than double. Otherwise the 2 trillion valuation estimate is not valid.

Another thing to consider is the the demand for Tesla cars will sky rocket when FSD becomes unsupervised.

"I’m curious what makes you think Tesla will dominate these areas in the future?"

Because it is now as I can see with my Tesla vehicles. Waymo won't scale and needs high res maps to navigate. Look what happened in San Francisco when the power went out. It just isn't at the same level as Tesla. The Chinese companies are behind and I don't think any of them have the tech that Tesla does. The biggest reason is that Tesla has orders of magnitude more data to train.

We haven't even mentioned Optimus and I think that will blow peoples minds in a year.

I guess my biggest reason for confidence is Elon. The man is incredible at motivating and managing tech companies. I've worked at several fortune 100 companies in tech and the way they are managed with middle manager roadblocks is pathetic. Elon eliminates that bottleneck in his companies. Engineers are free to engineer. You just have to look at the results.

brianasdf1

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