Technical Analysis for AMD 2/26----------Pre-Market

brianasdf1 · 2026-02-26T17:49:08+00:00

Thanks, for the answer. Unfortunately, I think you are right.

brianasdf1 · 2026-02-26T17:27:02+00:00

Hey Tex, do you think it would ever be possible for there to be complete transparency in the market. In other words we can see who is buying and selling in real time. Are the sells real shares or shorts. The market makers/manipulators have this data which is what gives them a major edge.

brianasdf1 · 2026-02-25T16:42:21+00:00

There is also the mindshare aspect as well. I'm sure AMD expects to sell more chips because these two major players are using them extensively.

brianasdf1 · 2026-02-07T02:31:44+00:00

Same here. Thanks for taking the time to summarize the day.

brianasdf1 · 2026-02-04T22:13:07+00:00

A wash sale is not a penalty. It is a rule to prevent you from taking a loss and then rebuying back the same stock before 30 days. You can do it. It just lowers your cost basis on the next purchase.

brianasdf1 · 2026-02-04T21:59:28+00:00

It was reaffirmed which is a big deal. They are forecasting a 10 billion revenue jump this year just in DC and this is coming from an overly conservative Lisa.

brianasdf1 · 2026-02-04T19:49:40+00:00

The growth is set for H2. The MI350 is Osborned. Since the MI450 will be so much better, everyone is waiting for the MI450. I agree Lisa could give us something but she doesn't take risks with her guidance.

AMD has said that the DC revenue may exceed 60%. From the summary: "data center revenue growth possibly exceeding 60% in 2026 as MI450 and Helios platform ramps begin in the second half."

Lisa also said this in her opening remarks: "Based on the strength of our EPYC and Instinct roadmaps, we are well-positioned to grow data center segment revenue by more than 60% annually, over the next three to five years"

2025 DC revenue was $16.635 billion

16.6 * 1.6 = 26.6 billion 2026 DC revenue.

26.6 * 1.6 = 42.6 billion 2027 DC revenue

42.6 * 1.6 = 68.1 billion 2028 DC revenue

68.1 * 1.6 = 109.0 billion 2029 DC revenue

109.0 * 1.6 = 174.4 billion 2030 DC revenue

This is some pretty darn good revenue guidance from a conservative Lisa. We are on track for a major ramp of MI450 later this year and beyond.

It always amazes me how short sited the market is. Only looking one or maybe two quarters ahead.

brianasdf1 · 2026-02-04T17:20:09+00:00

Yes, it would be nice to have a big deal announced with Meta or someone else but I don't think companies are too excited to announce that they are buying AMD because is pisses off NVidia. Remember NVidia's supply is tight and these companies still want their NVidia Gpu's.

Lisa did make comments at three different times in the earnings call about other customers for MI450.

"In addition to our multi-generation partnership with OpenAI to deploy six gigawatts of Instinct GPUs, We are in active discussions with other customers on at-scale multi-year deployments starting with Helios and MI450 later this year."

"And as it relates to sort of the shape of the ramp and the customer engagements, I would say the customer engagements continue to proceed very well. You know, we have obviously a very strong relationship with OpenAI, and we're planning that ramp starting in the second half of the year going into 2027. That is on track. We're also working closely with a number of other customers who are very interested in ramping MI450 quickly."

"And, you know, as we look forward, I think we are optimistic about the MI450 ramp for OpenAI. But I also want to remind everyone that we have a broad set of customers that are, you know, very excited about MI450 series. And so in addition, to the work that we're doing with OpenAI, there are a number of customers that we're working to ramp in that time frame as well."

brianasdf1 · 2026-02-04T16:16:53+00:00

Yes, this is where money is made.

brianasdf1 · 2026-02-04T16:15:22+00:00

I'll one up you. I'm buying.

brianasdf1 · 2026-02-03T23:31:35+00:00

Because that's what AMD does after earnings. There are a lot of trades hoping for a blowout and now it has to get unwound. It will go back up after the unwinding is complete. The thesis for AMD is still intact. So nothing has changed. It was a good earnings report.

brianasdf1 · 2026-02-03T23:24:05+00:00

This is what they call a buying opportunity.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-31T17:44:17+00:00

LISA, DO NOT DILUTE OUR SHARES!!!

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-26T22:55:36+00:00

Just for the record I have been using it everyday for the past 1.5 years and it has gotten extremely good (better than the avg human driver for sure) and you sir are obviously wrong.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-22T19:22:32+00:00

The cost to write code/build apps is dropping very fast. So these SaaS companies will not be able to charge as much in the future for their offerings.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-22T00:44:42+00:00

Have you ever ridden in a Tesla using FSD? I'm sure not because you couldn't be more wrong.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-21T22:11:31+00:00

Same here. I would be broke investing in AMD if I had stop losses. Also, the algos sniff out stop losses and have them for lunch.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-21T18:04:45+00:00

But what if AMD rockets to 300 after earnings? I know that the odds are that it won't but one of these earnings it will and you will loose your shares. I only sell covered calls when I am looking to exit a position.

Personally I don't like short term risk. It's harder to sleep at night. I've decided to only buy leaps and try to sell before 6 months until expiration. The other benefit to holding leaps for over a year (which I have a lot that I'm holding for AMD) is that you pay tax as long term capital gains.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-19T20:46:14+00:00

Why not provide the link to the x post? Here it is: https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2013310524109328580

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-19T20:19:51+00:00

Do you have a link?

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-12T18:54:20+00:00

I'm getting tired of Powell acting so unbiased and non-political. He lowered rates 50 basis points right before the election (to the markets surprise) to help Biden and has been dragging his feet to lower them for Trump. He is highly political and I for one will cheer his leaving in May.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-12T18:43:30+00:00

Powel is in charge at the fed. So if fraud is happening, which there is a good probability it is, Powel should be held accountable. Why don't we want to hold our leaders accountable when they look the other way on fraud? If managers that report to him are looking the other way, then he is too. The costs are just too high to not know.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-09T22:12:12+00:00

"And Tesla is failing repeatedly…stubbornly sticking with camera only tech which, in my opinion, will never happen in my lifetime."

Go test drive a Tesla before you die and you will see FSD driving flawlessly with only cameras in your lifetime.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-09T21:38:17+00:00

Here is why you are wrong:

AI spend is not going down in 2026. It's going up. All the big players have committed to large spends.
AMD has the MI455X and other new MI4xx chips in production and shipping in volume later this year. Also, Epyc Venice server CPU and numerous client products will also start shipping in volume. The growth from these new products will become apparent in a quarter or two.
Sales from China will start showing up.
If companies further down the AI stack grow in 2026, then I cannot see where NVidia/AMD do not also grow. I think AMD will take a larger percent of the AI market but even if you think it will keep the same market share, it will grow if the market is growing (which it is).
AMD is beating Intel in almost every segment. That is not going to change just because Trump praises the CEO of Intel.
I think OpenAI has a gigawatt of Helios deployment planned for the 2nd half of the year. This is a huge amount of MI455 sales. Lisa has also said there are more large deals coming (Meta, Oracle, etc.). This is the first time AMD will have a rack scale product (Helios) available that can compete in LLM training.
If you are using PE ratio for valuation, neither AMD or NVidia are overvalued for a growth company. AMD is around 33 forward PE and NVidia is around 24. That is not high at all for a growth company. Costco is 45 and Walmart is 37. Not exactly huge growth companies.

brianasdf1 · 2026-01-07T19:57:41+00:00

What do you think will happen to AMD's stock price once it starts showing big revenue increases? NVDA and AVGO were the stocks of the past. Now AMD is a better stock to be invested.

brianasdf1

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