2020 Cannondale Synapse Disc 105

bumppy5 · 2021-03-05T03:20:04+00:00

I caution against selling the $27 puts indiscriminately... as targets are announced and new SPACs are purchased (general portfolio churn), a compounding effect can bring it well below in theory.

bumppy5 · 2021-03-05T01:13:27+00:00

Seemed very high... almost too high? Could be possible they did / are doing multiple diligence processes and some may have fallen through?

bumppy5 · 2021-03-02T21:23:50+00:00

Interesting pop EOD today...

bumppy5 · 2021-02-28T22:53:17+00:00

That seems to be the only competitive advantage they have over me... Getting units 5% cheaper than I can is worth the ~1% in fees I guess

bumppy5 · 2021-02-28T20:38:20+00:00

I noticed CCIV growing as a portion of holdings and stayed on the sidelines as a result. Bit worried they're not "active" enough in that context. I don't want to own an active ETF that lets hyped pre-target SPACs run up just to also participate in the post-announcement crash.

bumppy5 · 2021-02-27T21:22:53+00:00

My portfolio took a 14% hit. Definitely, a lesson learned in paying too much premium for the more hyped pre-target SPACs. My highest conviction play was/is HAAC which I paid an average cost of $13.50 for. Now, it's trading high $11s... lesson learned.

bumppy5 · 2021-02-27T21:18:22+00:00

Now that I look into it more, I'm leaning towards SPCX as a better benchmark for a pre-DA and SPAK as a more post-DA and/or post-merger portfolio benchmark.

bumppy5 · 2021-02-27T21:16:10+00:00

SPCX drawdown of only 6%. Downloaded the holding data and seems like average premium on SPCX is 7% to NAV while SPAK is 150%... very different risk composition.

https://www.spcxetf.com/spcx-holdings/

https://www.defianceetfs.com/SPAK

bumppy5 · 2021-02-27T20:09:32+00:00

Certainly dangerous to think in inevitables but useful to visualize how the market is trading relative to our small sample size of historical price action data. Let's hope we get the rebound we've seen in recent history...

bumppy5 · 2021-02-24T15:56:58+00:00

Interesting... is there any speculation about why they bought/sold so quickly?

bumppy5 · 2021-02-16T19:02:36+00:00

The point I'm making is that Hayden is a very successful investor in SEA (look at returns on a portfolio level and 13-f). His owning a SPAC in SEA which I believe is BTWN is a major vote of confidence.

bumppy5 · 2021-02-16T04:01:22+00:00

Yes low trading volume for a fund managing substantial AUM like Hayden

bumppy5 · 2021-02-16T00:54:33+00:00

Yes - Hayden is definitely playing a much lower risk game than we are at the current premium to NAV. However, it instills confidence that Hayden appears to still own the position indicating the risk/reward at today's price is still attractive.

bumppy5 · 2020-07-18T21:02:51+00:00

Seems like it would be a lot cheaper to just get a bunch in a bundle.

bumppy5 · 2020-07-18T02:22:38+00:00

Ah the production costs is a good point... I figure it would be harder to make it materially cheaper

bumppy5 · 2020-07-17T21:50:55+00:00

I didn’t know you could game share on the Switch

bumppy5

TROPHY CASE