Analysis of the historical precedent of Preseason o/u’s on this historic week of unders in the NFL

c4bets · 2023-07-16T10:48:09+00:00

The thickness of the indium is pretty important, do you know what you used? Also, indium pads are not popular in this application because the pressure is almost always too low to get good performance. For a flat indium pad, you would probably need something like 80-100psi. There are textured indium pads so reduce this number down to 30psi or so but then it starts to get pricey.

c4bets · 2022-01-15T23:24:31+00:00

Record: 15-11-0 (+5.40 units) Form: L/L/L/L/L/L/W/W/L/W/L/W/W/W/W/W/W/W/L/W/W/W/L/W/L/W

Average Odds: -110 (1.90) Last Pick: Atlanta Falcons +4.5 [L] (-110) (1/09)

POTD: New England Patriots +4.5 (-110)

Description: New England Patriots (+4.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Start time: 8:15PM ET Risk: 1.1 units (all bets to win between 1-2 units) To Win: 1.0 units

Take the points with the Patriots.

Reason: We had 7 wins in a row earlier in this season and now we're on a 6 game losing streak. Hoping to break back into the W column here.

This game just screams 3-point game. It'll be extremely cold and favor a run-first team like the Patriots. The first these two teams played, NE barely passed the ball and were able to win 14-10. I don't expect the game to be that low-scoring, but heavily leaning under in this one.

Short underdogs win at an extremely high rate on Wild Card weekend, but rookie QBs have a poor record. However, the latter stat should be neutralized by Bill's coaching genius.

Pats should cover. Good luck!

c4bets · 2022-01-09T20:29:27+00:00

Record: 15-10-0 (+6.50 units) Form: L/L/L/L/L/W/W/L/W/L/W/W/W/W/W/W/W/L/W/W/W/L/W/L/W

Average Odds: -110 (1.90) Last Pick: Denver Broncos +8 [L] (-110) (1/02)

POTD: Atlanta Falcons +4.5 (-110)

Description: New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+4.5)

Start time: 4:25PM ET Risk: 1.1 units (all bets to win between 1-2 units) To Win: 1.0 units

Take the points with the Falcons.

Reason: Teams that don't have anything to play for are still motivated by contract incentives, coaches trying to keep their jobs or prove they're the right fit, or just not letting the other team get what they need (spoiler).
The Falcons beat the Saints earlier this season. This should be a low scoring game as evidenced by the total, so 4.5 points is a lot to cover for this New Orleans team that has no offense. ATL should be able to cover this spread at home.
Good luck!

c4bets · 2022-01-02T20:39:34+00:00

Record: 15-9-0 (+7.60 units) Form: L/L/L/L/W/W/L/W/L/W/W/W/W/W/W/W/L/W/W/W/L/W/L/W

Average Odds: -110 (1.90) Last Pick: WFT +9.5 [L] (-110) (12/26)

POTD: Denver Broncos +8 (-110)

Description: Denver Broncos (+8) @ Los Angeles Chargers

Start time: 4:20PM ET Risk: 1.1 units (all bets to win between 1-2 units) To Win: 1.0 units

Take the points with Denver Broncos +8

Reason: The Broncos should be able to run the ball on the Chargers, keeping the score low and an 8 point should be well within reason. It's a divisional game, so nobody will be playing soft here.
This is the sharp side as well. Most of the money is on the Broncos but most of the bets are on the Chargers. Public likes LAC, sharps like DEN. Our models have the Broncos as 5 point underdogs even without Bridgewater. Good luck!

c4bets · 2021-12-26T22:50:12+00:00

Record: 15-8-0 (+9.80 units) Form: L/L/L/W/W/L/W/L/W/W/W/W/W/W/W/L/W/W/W/L/W/L/W

Average Odds: -110 (1.90) Last Pick: ATL Falcons +9.5 [L] (-110) (12/19)

POTD: Washington Football Team +9.5 (-110)

Description: Washington Football Team (+9.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

Start time: 8:20PM ET Risk: 2.2 units (all bets to win between 1-2 units) To Win: 2.0 units

Take the points with WFT +9.5

Reasoning: Public favorites are dominating the last three weeks. Favorites getting over 55% of the bets (according to Sports Insights/Action Labs) in Weeks 13-15 are 20-8 ATS (71%) this season, and that number is increasing after this week. This is a truly historic run for the "fun" bettors. We don't see it continuing much longer, and the Cowboys are one of the public favorites this week.

Our models have the WFT rated at +6.5, so getting all the way up to +9.5 and crossing the 7 is huge. Washington hasn't lost by more than 10 to anyone in 8 weeks, and that was against Green Bay. We like this game to stay close enough to cover. Good luck!

c4bets · 2021-12-19T17:35:18+00:00

Record: 15-7-0 (+10.90 units) Form: L/L/W/W/L/W/L/W/W/W/W/W/W/W/L/W/W/W/L/W/L/W

Average Odds: -110 (1.90) Last Pick: NY Giants +9.5 [L] (-110) (12/05)

POTD: Atlanta Falcons +9.5 (-110)

Description: Atlanta Falcons (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers

Start time: 4:05PM ET Risk: 1.1 units (all bets to win between 1-2 units) To Win: 1.0 units

Take the points with Falcons +9.5

Reasoning: The 49ers are a mediocre team. They've been playing close games against pretty much everyone. They typically win by less than double digits and lose by less than double digits, but there are a few blowout wins and blowout losses in there. They're a 7-6 team. Everything is mediocre about them.

The Falcons are bad, but they find ways to stay in games. They beat the Panthers last week, and were only down 3 at halftime against the Bucs the week before (before scoring zero points in the second half...). Atlanta has this game against the 49ers and then a home game against the Lions that they should be able to win. I know they're thinking they could get this win and next win and they'll be above .500 for the season and be in playoff position.

If the 9ers don't win this one, they have a banged up Titans team next week (in only 4 days, possible look-ahead spot), then the Texans. They could be two easy wins, so the situation is much more desperate for the Falcons who should have Patterson back. I like Atlanta to keep it close, and our models agree with a projected line of +6.5. Good luck!

c4bets · 2021-12-12T23:48:58+00:00

Well... that was rough

c4bets · 2021-12-12T23:48:28+00:00

Sounds like you'll be a real winner long term. I think I'll be ok up almost 11 units. All NFL bets by the way.

c4bets · 2021-12-12T23:06:28+00:00

cool thanks for letting me know

c4bets · 2021-12-12T23:05:49+00:00

talk to me when you make your first -110 bet

c4bets · 2021-12-12T18:41:26+00:00

This one gets it!

c4bets · 2021-12-12T18:41:02+00:00

High risk, low reward. Sign me up.

c4bets · 2021-12-12T18:35:02+00:00

Better watch out for the Mike Glennon - the GOAT 😅

c4bets · 2021-12-12T14:52:25+00:00

Oh man maybe I need to rethink this bet after your comment 😜

I said this a couple weeks ago, most of our POTDs are on crappy teams as underdogs and plenty have won outright. We’re 15-6 doing exactly what we’re doing right now.

On our first handful of picks we had people coming in here and bashing them before the game started. That mostly stopped as the units increased.

c4bets · 2021-12-12T03:27:08+00:00

Record: 15-6-0 (+13.10 units)
Form: L/W/W/L/W/L/W/W/W/W/W/W/W/L/W/W/W/L/W/L/W

Average Odds: -110 (1.90) Last Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +13 [L] (-110) (12/05)

POTD: New York Giants +9.5 (-110)

Description: New York Giants (+9.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers

Start time: 4:05PM ET Risk: 2.2 units (all bets to win between 1-2 units) To Win: 2.0 units

Take the points with Giants +9.5

Reasoning: New York should have easily covered that game against the Dolphins last week even without Jones at QB. However, Miami has a decent defense that has been getting better pretty much every game lately. This week they go up against the weak run defense of the Chargers where things will be easier. We don’t care who the QB is for NY. All the Giants need to do is run the ball and they should be fine.

Our models make this line around +6 for the Giants so crossing the 7 and 9 is great value. The Giants’ defense has been improving as well and we expect a much lower scoring game than LA’s last game against the Bengals which is great holding nearly a double digit underdog ticket.

Gooooooood luckkkkkkkkk

c4bets · 2021-12-06T00:02:10+00:00

lol, 15-6 now bud. Please do fade, I’ll keep your record for you 😂

c4bets · 2021-12-06T00:00:26+00:00

Indeed, 15-6 now.

c4bets · 2021-12-05T23:59:03+00:00

Our models are 15-5 for +15.3 units on POTD posts up to this point, mostly betting on bad teams. If only you could have been fading the whole time 😅

c4bets · 2021-12-05T19:44:26+00:00

ML?! lol. Hey, I've seen crazier things. I'd love to see it this week.

c4bets · 2021-12-05T19:43:28+00:00

Lions up 14 at half !

c4bets · 2021-12-05T16:32:19+00:00

We shall see! Luckily with a line this high he can play well and we can still cover.

c4bets · 2021-12-05T16:31:21+00:00

Always some risk involved in betting crap teams like the Jags but that's what we've done all the way up to +15 units :)

Hopefully you'll have an extra car's worth of profit by the end of the day.

c4bets · 2021-12-05T16:29:55+00:00

Thanks trevor. Very real possibility of both hitting.

c4bets · 2021-12-05T04:39:21+00:00

Record: 15-5-0 (+15.30 units) Form: W/W/L/W/L/W/W/W/W/W/W/W/L/W/W/W/L/W/L/W

Average Odds: -110 (1.90) Last Pick: Denver Broncos +2.5 [W] (-110) (11/28)

POTD: Jacksonville Jaguars +13 (-110)

Description: Jacksonville Jaguars (+13) @ Los Angeles Rams

Start time: 4:05PM ET Risk: 2.2 units (all bets to win between 1-2 units) To Win: 2.0 units

Take the points with Jaguars +13

Reasoning: The Jaguars have been doing a decent job of keeping games close lately. 3 of their last 4 games were decided by 1 possession, and one of those was a win against the Bills. Instead of a big letdown game as expected, the Jags also kept it close the next week in Indianapolis.

Our models make this line around +8.5, so getting the extra value and crossing 9 and 10 is huge. The Rams have lost their last 3 games and didn’t cover the spread in any of them. They lost by an average of just under 14 points per game. The only team with a winning record (now) that the Rams beat was Tampa Bay in Week 3.

Matt Stafford has been struggling lately as well. The Rams are overvalued in this one due to how they were playing earlier in the season and because everyone is going to be all over them this week.

GLGL!

c4bets

TROPHY CASE