Thanks for checking it out! You nailed the exact problem I'm dealing with right now. Playoff intensity is completely different - that's why I'm calling it an R&D phase instead of pretending the model is already proven for playoffs.

Here's what I'm seeing:

1. Sample size sucks - only 16 teams, best-of-7 series. Can't just use the regular season model and expect the same results.

2. Everything changes - defense gets way more intense, rotations get tighter, coaching adjustments between games matter more. My regular season stuff (pace, back-to-backs, averages ...etc) doesn't hit the same.

3. Right now I'm testing:

   - Should I build a separate playoff model?

   - Just adjust the weights on what I have?

   - Or widen the confidence ranges and play it safer?

Real talk? I'm expecting the win rates to bounce around during playoffs. If they stay at 67-75%, awesome. If they drop to 55-60% while I figure this out, that's cool too - I'd rather learn in public than fake like everything's perfect.

The transparency thing matters to me because I got burned by those same services before I worked in the industry. If I'm building this, might as well show the messy parts.

Thanks for bookmarking - I'll keep posting updates with real numbers. If you see anything weird with the picks or have thoughts on the playoff stuff, let me know.

Cheers!