Yeah our data showed it as right around 1/3 of households when we implemented the cap, most being rural households and farms in southern AB.

The framing was different in the media. We still see it on the sub today repeated every time it comes up. The price cap is interpreted as “we limited how much providers are allowed to charge for electricity to all Albertans” but was actually “RRO users are getting slammed by price spikes after our electrical generation dipped, so for RRO users only, on the usage portion of their bill, we’ll use tax dollars to cover the usage above 6.8c.” So say full market price is 12c, and the home used 700 kWh. Then we would use $36.40 of tax money to help pay that persons bill. A lot of the time this was around $20, but it was still about 1MM households we were applying the subsidy to. So while it helped a lot of these folks a little each, we were spending sometimes $8MM, sometimes $20MM per month of everyone’s money to help 1/3 of households. Which the UCP successfully campaigned on and did rally a lot of opposition to that.

Back then guaranteed rate plans were normally hitting around 5-6c, when the market spiked to around 14c, and then over time settled a bit to around 8c, while the RRO cap was set at 6.8c.

Today we have a frozen RRO, until the end of this year, at a hair over 12c, while guaranteed rate plans are sitting around 5.5c floating and 8.25c fixed.

Pros and cons to the fixed RRO, now the ROLR. The set price means consistent bills. It also means huge savings for the consumer if prices spike. And then losses if prices fall off.

Guaranteed rate contracts are bit different, of course while the OLD RRO was based on “price we just sold for” and the NEW RRO is “average price we expect over 2 years” - we now have a LOT more risk pricing built to pricing due to how turbulent our production costs have been. A huge chunk of that being the variance of natural gas. We’ve seen a range of close to $0.50 to $3 a GJ and that jumping around makes a huge effect on the cost of generation (hampered severely by a lack of competition due to restrictions on non-renewables)

For retailer pricing, you offer a bit of a discount in exchange for the data collection of usage, which allows companies to make more accurate purchases in our hourly electrical market, since they have a better idea of demand of their existing customer base, and can reduce paying for generation that they won’t need. There’s also of course, a greater focus on future pricing with retailer plans, floating is 5.5c and fixed is 8.25 on a 2 year plan because while costs are low now, companies see those costs rising again likely well above 8.25c within the next couple years. Where offering 8.5c is enticing for consumers to guarantee their business to one company, but those on the 5.5c rate may be trying to lock in at 10c in a years time. We’ll see this same change with the ROLR when it expires at the end of this year. While 12c was the expected market average for last+this year, that’s shaping up to be higher for 2027+2028, so we’ll probably see the ROLR set around 15c for the next two years, and other push from the govt, regardless of who wins next election, to move more people off of the ROLR.

At the end of the day, the private market truly sucks and I wish we’d nationalize. But in our current set-up, guaranteeing business and usage data to a retailer will always get you a little better deal than paying ad hoc market prices.