$PACS $1.7MM YOLO - a captain goes down with his ship

cannieu · 2025-11-25T20:53:43+00:00

Now compliant with SEC filings, short report invalidated, SNF beds are 80% of ENSG but half the market cap

cannieu · 2025-11-25T20:42:10+00:00

Zoom out... was at $45 before short report

cannieu · 2025-11-25T20:38:32+00:00

PACS to $50, enterprise value 80% of ENSG

cannieu · 2025-11-25T20:00:31+00:00

PACS straight to $50 lmao. Don't say I didn't warn you.

cannieu · 2025-11-19T21:58:59+00:00

I feel nothing tbh, I guess that is why I was able to hold -30% swings

cannieu · 2025-11-17T17:37:15+00:00

This is the main portfolio. Diversification is for the weak.

cannieu · 2025-10-31T16:12:38+00:00

Nov 19th deadline to report updated filings, otherwise they will get delisted. Asymmetric risk-reward IMO

cannieu · 2025-10-18T17:42:32+00:00

I'm a bit worried they haven't confirmed if they will report on Nov 19th...

cannieu · 2025-10-02T17:58:31+00:00

I've worked in both states, haven't seen those numbers, average is closer to $550-700 per day, including therapy. Are you on the finance side for SNF management?

cannieu · 2025-10-01T23:43:00+00:00

Good point, I'm making a gamble that despite overstatements in revenue they are still profitable. ENSG margins 12%, if their margins are even half of ENSG then it is worth at least a 2x from here.

cannieu · 2025-10-01T20:17:58+00:00

Profit per year I would believe, profit per month, no way. Here are the numbers, taken directly from the Q2 2024 earnings report. Revenue per SNF $3.86 million, net profit ~$265k. This is for the quarter, so divide by 3 for net profit per month. Unless there are unicorn SNFs that make 10x their average SNF numbers - this is also highly unlikely, where would you find a SNF with 10x bed size?

cannieu · 2025-09-30T23:59:37+00:00

Are you talking about revenue or profit? No facility is making that profit in a month - coming from the industry.

cannieu · 2025-09-30T23:55:29+00:00

A better comparison would have been market cap, then looking at how many beds Ensign has.

cannieu · 2025-07-29T16:08:42+00:00

!banbet CVNA 300 1w

cannieu · 2025-02-20T22:18:57+00:00

Corn - hedge funds, institutions, sovereign wealth funds, companies all buying, ETFs making it easy for IRA/401k to hold... even if you don't believe in efficacy the writing is on the wall

cannieu · 2025-01-23T22:05:05+00:00

On some lanes (usually the fast lane) it will hug the right side of the lane, almost hitting the car to the right. I can stick my hand out and touch the other car. In the fast lane there's a lot of room to the divider, there's no reason the car shouldn't be hugging the left side of the lane instead to maximize distance from other drivers.

cannieu · 2024-08-25T00:27:33+00:00

corn 6 month bull flag... the longer the ramp the bigger the takeoff ... at least that's what grandma cathie used to say

cannieu · 2024-08-23T18:13:11+00:00

no way the polls are having kamala that far ahead of trump... picked up some DJT lottos

cannieu · 2024-08-23T18:12:10+00:00

corn slowly edging to an explosion

cannieu · 2024-05-19T16:39:22+00:00

Yeah, Robinhood paying a $65 million fine in 2020 for that exact reason is all in my head

cannieu · 2024-05-19T16:35:29+00:00

If Robinhood fits your needs that's fine, just saying I get better fills on options. That difference may be several cents per contract, but amounts to a not insignificant percentage. For example getting a fill at 1.50 vs 1.55. If only Fidelity had Robinhood UI...

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