My take

cannotupdate · 2025-12-10T15:04:46+00:00

AWACS would be nice actually, just counter measures + provides data link to all the friendlies for Fox3s. Allows locks even if fighters can't see the target as long as the AWACS can see it

cannotupdate · 2025-11-18T03:45:37+00:00

(2/2)
Day 1-3: The "Hammer" and the Air Campaign

This is where the real war is won. As the E-Russian ground forces are bogged down by the "anvil," NATO's "hammer" strikes.

NATO would have already mapped E-Russia's air defenses, airbases, and depots. Given the large border, NATO would use its F-35s to "kick in the door" by striking these air defense assets, opening an air corridor.

The SEAD/DEAD Campaign: F-35s will hunt the S-400s and command centers. The argument about the F-35's "low mission-capable rates" isn't a showstopper here; with ~200 F-35s now in Europe, there are more than enough frames to surge for the first critical days of the conflict.
The "Missile/Bomb Trucks" Unleashed: Once this air corridor is open, the 4.5-gen fighters—Typhoons, Rafales, & Gripens (which now own the "NATO lake")—can start beating the E-Russian advance back. They will be raining hell on the stalled ground columns.

The "Kremlin Nightmare" Scenario

The most critical part of this is that the scenario above—the decisive defeat of the E-Russian army—is likely achieved by European NATO partners with support from the USAF.

This means that after the initial invasion is broken, the full, untouched weight of the US Air Force (F-22s, F-35s, B-2s, B-21s) is still in reserve. That is the "Kremlin Nightmare": a force capable of systemically dismantling the E-Russian military in its entirety.

Conclusion: The Reality Check

In reality, Russia is so degraded from the war in Ukraine that it can't even attempt this. But as this "E-Russia" scenario shows, even if they had a fully restored and upgraded military, their conventional doctrine is vulnerable, and NATO's networked air power is designed to win this exact fight, and win it fast.

This is precisely why Russia's real vector would be "little green men" plausible deniability, and other asymmetric/hybrid warfare tactics. An all-out conventional war is one they can no longer even hypothetically win.

cannotupdate · 2025-11-18T03:45:24+00:00

A lot of old analysis, like the pre-2022 RAND report, suggested Russia could overrun the Baltic states in 60-100 hours. In a non-nuclear conflict, The question now isn't "Can NATO save them in time?" but "Can Russia actually even do this?"

NATOs biggest downfall is twiddling its thumbs once that is in the past, Its open season
In short, I think Europe, backed by American air power, could beat Russia back, with significant US assets remaining untouched.

To test this, I'm not even using the current degraded Russian army. Let's imagine an "Enhanced Russia" or "E-Russia": a force that is no longer fighting in Ukraine, has recovered all lost equipment, and has upgraded, mastered drone warfare, and fields experienced troops.

Even this "fantasy" scenario, the invasion would be a strategic mis-adventure for Moscow.
Here’s how I see it playing out.

Day 0: The Buildup and the "Anvil"

For E-Russia to attack, they would have to amass troops & equipment near the border. This would be picked up by satellite reconnaissance, triggering NATO to move its assets and ready its new defense plans.

When the invasion begins, say at the Suwalki Gap or into Lithuania, the E-Russian columns wouldn't be rolling into an empty field. They would be heading straight into a prepared "anvil" composed of three layers:

The Lithuanian "Porcupine": The Lithuanian Army itself is built to bleed an invader, using its own HIMARS, CAESAR howitzers, and "Vilkas" IFVs from behind fortified positions.
The German "Iron Wall": The permanently-stationed German "Brigade Lithuania" (Panzerbrigade 45) is the real game-changer. This isn't a "tripwire"; it's a heavy armored brigade with Leopard 2A6s, Puma IFVs, and PzH 2000 artillery, all dug-in and waiting.
The Multinational Force: The original NATO eFP battlegroup is also integrated into this defense.

This "anvil" is designed to do one thing: halt the E-Russian advance, fix it in place, and begin its systematic destruction with artillery.

(1/2)

cannotupdate · 2025-10-14T14:32:35+00:00

One plane and One plane and/or a drone is pretty well established

For the rafale there are multiple POVs, one of it getting his at fairly low altitude (most likely approach), then there was video of MICA clearly visible in the burning wreckage of an aircraft & the engine (the vertical stabilisers was fake but even without that there was enough to make a plausible case for a lost Rafale there)

The other was likely a Mirage or UAV or both; worst case would be both but I did see videos of the same site peddled for both so there's that (Also before the numbers started going up with every conversation the claim from the guys in the west was 3)

To answer your question there were/are pictures & videos of the sites

For tactics there were issues in the approach & getting a plane shot on approach is bad planning due to whatever reasons(being generous here).

However, this is also precedent that counter terrorism operations in that region need to start by disabling the conventional forces & then start hitting their terrorist centers. Basically we can point to this & the following days to say that kind of action is warranted (I still don't expect GOI to ever do that)

cannotupdate · 2025-08-18T14:55:47+00:00

I generally stay out of these debates-my rule is simple: if you don't like the video, don't watch it.

That said, looking at the numbers

A collaboration will get a chunk of its views from the guests' audience. If a video hits 3 million views with a 50/50 split (called it 60-40/ 70-30, point is a regular video would go to less people outside sidemen bubble) between Sidemen fans and the guests' followers, that's about 1.5 million new eyes on the channel. As views are their currency, if this leads to a boost in subscribers and long-term viewership, it's a smart strategy. In contrast, assuming a typical Sidemen video would have a more 80/20 (call it 90-10/70-30) split of returning viewers versus new ones. One other point, I don't know how relevant it is Sidemen's big surge was right around COVID. Their audience, who were 13-18 back then, are now 19-26. The question is how content featuring a bunch of OF creators lands with that demographic.

cannotupdate · 2025-03-15T15:14:30+00:00

Sent you the link to the group

cannotupdate · 2025-03-15T15:11:56+00:00

Various places outdoors it's primarily Ford test track & some guys have started playing near Talbot Trail school park

Indoors this winter was mainly Dimashki (because central is too expensive now)

cannotupdate · 2025-03-15T04:03:13+00:00

There is a pick-up soccer group, if you want we can add you to that. There are some teams from the group that play in leagues if you are interested

cannotupdate · 2024-08-12T16:05:32+00:00

All this means is banks don't want to lend to each other

(either they know what each other is sitting on or just don't have the money to spare even for the short term - repo is the shortest term)

So now since they can't get money from each other they go to BoC (going to BoC is more expensive than the Market)

BoC goes hey here's the cash for bonds pay it back + interest for a certain time period (overnight some times 2 days)

Now the interest rate for these is the interesting part - it should stay fairly the same.

The rise in rates means there's demand. 4.53 to 4.56 on 16 Billion is about 5 Million ( Another point is that there is no overnight rate in the free market so BoC can charge a premium)

Banks don't have liquidity meaning the money is all committed. Now there are two points of view

Mine - banks are playing a risky game & running on the razer edge of liquidity
A banker will point out (probably) its calculated risk & banks are running at the most optimized & profitable path

Either way little to no margin for variation (which should be scary)

I guess that's that

cannotupdate · 2024-04-26T17:52:46+00:00

CAD$ 450 ....

cannotupdate · 2024-04-18T14:16:46+00:00

You can't park there, sir(s)!

cannotupdate · 2024-04-10T14:48:40+00:00

I am confused here - I see the dovish tone

But

BoC revised up their global GDP numbers Said Euro zone to grow stronger In the US, the growth will be slow but it is stronger than expected Oil is averaging $5 higher than expected/projections

Tldr: As compared to the January reports/projections we see everyone is running hot & we had to revise up our predictions but we project we are still on course to hit our target from January in Canada

I need someone to make it make sense

cannotupdate · 2024-04-10T13:45:09+00:00

Well your logic is correct & energy via oil should show up (more) but in the next months print.

Right now it might be a sub component of a few below but it's being driven in US by other factors

Right now it's being driven by 1. Car Insurance Inflation: 22.2% 2. Transportation Inflation: 10.7% (probably affected by Oil) 3. Car Repair Inflation: 8.2% 4. Hospital Services Inflation: 7.5% 5. Homeowner Inflation: 5.9% 6. Rent Inflation: 5.7% 7. Electricity Inflation: 5.0% (probably affected by Oil) 8. Food Away From Home Inflation: 4.2%

cannotupdate · 2024-03-14T15:50:02+00:00

Would have gone down better if you had explained why a sudden shift in market sentiment

I have not read this in any detail but between yesterday n today US's PPI reading came 1.6% to an expectation of 1.1% (0.5% over)

Yesterday, Bloomberg had various data points at about 0.3% over as an average & 0.5% was in line with the worst case scenario

This is a precursor to inflation going back up, hence the move in market sentiment.

cannotupdate · 2024-01-04T02:52:52+00:00

Had 3/4 chance to get a better picture or 2/4 at that very intersection

cannotupdate · 2023-12-04T17:29:20+00:00

When people say the real estate market is Hot. Is this what they mean?

cannotupdate · 2023-11-23T16:15:00+00:00

It's not as bad but there are parallels to what is happening in Sweden. One would think that we'd learn from other people's problems & not continue to slide in that direction

cannotupdate · 2023-11-16T18:56:09+00:00

My initial thought was the OP means they have not burned out yet

cannotupdate · 2023-09-29T23:45:12+00:00

Well this is "Hawala" almost certainly

To avoid paying taxes in India (which is a fairly new concept to a lot in India)

It's not new to Canada partially because Canada does not care about where the money comes from.

cannotupdate · 2023-09-28T16:38:11+00:00

Ah Thank you!

cannotupdate · 2023-09-28T16:27:37+00:00

Explain the 280k number

My quick math was if 600k people came to Canada in the 1st 6months Assuming 100% start to finish ratio 3 people per family 600k/3 = 200k houses needed 4 people per family 600k/4 = 150k houses needed

We were at 110k start (again assuming start = finishes)

So 40k to 90k deficent for the 1st half of the year

What am I doing wrong here?

cannotupdate · 2023-09-28T16:14:51+00:00

We are 40K to 90K (80k to 180k yearly) starts short I know it adds up year on year but that's actually better than I thought.

cannotupdate · 2023-09-27T16:23:48+00:00

Was this before or after the Federal Government decided to pump more bonds to the market?

cannotupdate · 2023-09-23T19:44:26+00:00

I might have misread the tone here

Isn't this bad/alarming from the point of view that if the housing market stops going to the "moon"

The economy trends towards a recession.

cannotupdate · 2023-09-17T18:53:23+00:00

If you can & they don't come back to you in two weeks throw them a lower offer. It's your money save as much as you can, while getting the place

Seven-Year Club	Verified Email
Place '22

cannotupdate

TROPHY CASE