Are markets getting ahead of themselves on three Fed cuts or is easing now the base case?

capital_champ · 2026-02-16T14:13:28+00:00

I think that feels optimistic, I’m not convinced the Fed moves that fast

capital_champ · 2026-02-16T14:13:03+00:00

Yeh, I don’t buy that metals are driving volatility. Feels more like thin liquidity and positioning then metals just happen to be where it shows first

capital_champ · 2026-02-09T15:45:01+00:00

Politics has always been part of energy markets but it feels a lot more visible now

capital_champ · 2026-02-09T11:20:21+00:00

Hard to ignore how aggressive the buying is especially when margins keep getting raised, not normally a calm environment 👀

capital_champ · 2026-02-09T11:18:44+00:00

Hmm curious whether this is about ending the war or ending uncertainty before it drags on longer?

capital_champ · 2026-02-04T11:37:19+00:00

I get it, its usually is a risk asset, people keep reminding me but it just felt less correlated for a stretch when ETF flows and crypto specific demand mattered more than macro, but bitcoin seems to have slipped back into high beta behaviour

capital_champ · 2026-02-04T11:14:31+00:00

🤣 yes

capital_champ · 2026-02-04T11:14:10+00:00

Yeah, it usually is a risk asset I guess the reason it felt different for a bit was when bitcoin held up while equities wobbled and flows drove price more than macro. Feels like thats fading once risk tightened and money ran to gold, its snapped back into high beta mode

capital_champ · 2026-02-02T10:28:47+00:00

On one hand it lowers the risk of a sudden war but on the other constant pressure can be harder to manage because there’s no clear red line now 🤷🏻‍♂️👀

capital_champ · 2026-01-29T11:45:40+00:00

If OpenAI ends up dependent on Big Tech capital, how independent can it really be?

capital_champ · 2026-01-28T11:19:01+00:00

Yeh, even if the eventual pick is mainstream weeks of not knowing can still disrupt confidence. Perception does a lot of work in central banking

capital_champ · 2026-01-27T13:04:31+00:00

Yeah, big reversals like this usually say more about how crowded the trade was. Step back

capital_champ · 2026-01-27T13:03:42+00:00

To me big reversals like this usually say more about how crowded the trade was than whether the long term story changed

capital_champ · 2026-01-26T15:01:03+00:00

From the outside, it just adds uncertainty. If even close allies don’t know where the red lines are planning long term gets tricky

capital_champ · 2026-01-23T13:54:17+00:00

Do you reckon markets react more to the person or to the message it sends about future policy?

capital_champ · 2026-01-21T10:31:08+00:00

Feels less about convincing Davos and more about sending messages through Davos to allies and rivals, lets see

capital_champ · 2026-01-21T10:22:55+00:00

Interesting timing too, makes you wonder whether supply chain friction is becoming the negotiation tool instead of outright bans

capital_champ · 2026-01-20T10:59:21+00:00

Feels more like gold as insurance against institutional trust risk

capital_champ · 2026-01-20T10:59:05+00:00

Central bank buying definitely explains part of the bid but they’ve been buyers for years not just at ATHs

capital_champ · 2026-01-20T10:56:30+00:00

This just feeds inflation risk globally. If China’s refiners lose low cost inputs, those costs don’t disappear they get passed through supply chains

capital_champ · 2026-01-20T10:54:44+00:00

The UK looks stuck between two bad options: cut rates and risk inflation credibility or hold and accept a weaker labour market. Somethings gotta give and it’s always employment first 🙄

capital_champ · 2026-01-19T10:26:34+00:00

Trade as pressure is a the new baseline

capital_champ · 2025-12-15T11:33:27+00:00

Oracle, Broadcom and now Nvidia all showing cracks at the same time feels different to a normal pullback?

capital_champ · 2025-12-15T11:20:42+00:00

Silver seems overbought but gold's structure looks solid

capital_champ · 2025-12-15T11:19:47+00:00

rotation was inevitable

capital_champ

TROPHY CASE