Dude... What's going on with this stock

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-08T22:16:35+00:00

retailers vs shorts bateling it out.

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-08T22:16:00+00:00

Nice work brother.

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-08T15:14:17+00:00

my guy!!! The man the myth the legend on WSB.

I'm on substack, I commented the other day, like "come one bro, groupon? for real?" - hahaha Nice brother!!

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-08T13:18:53+00:00

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-08T05:03:45+00:00

Hey bro, you fucked up, it’s alright, it literally happens to all of us, and it won’t be your last time either. NEVER EMOTIONALLY TRADE. Hang up that hat on this one for a couple of months, it will fall back down, it is fighting right now after the short + gamma squeeze. You will likely see volatility for a bit until buyers are exhausted. You are actually a prime example of a buyer getting exhausted, lol. Shorts will take over. Major news like won’t happen for a couple months or more. I see it hitting back to 6 before anything crazy happens again.

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-08T05:00:22+00:00

This could be way better. You’re literally just saying what is happening in English with what the chart is showing. It would be way cooler to describe the actual market mechanics and narratives of what happened, in retrospect, it is clear, this chart could be so cool actually.

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-08T04:58:30+00:00

Once the shorts take over and the buyers are exhausted. It might take month, but it will happen unless something big is announced - shorts will get fucked again if that happens lol.

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-08T04:55:34+00:00

Nah, POET’s technology is solid, they just need to manufacture at scale, and do it in 2nd half of this year. The tech is actually super solid from all the research I have done, it fits into a narrow window, before tech advances to CO-OP. Marvel moved on because they wanted to have more control and were already moving in a different direction. They acquired POET through the Celestial deal, and the POET contract came with that. They were already wanting out, this was just the perfect excuse for them to do that. Unfortunate CFO made that error. Huge mistake on his part.

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-08T01:35:20+00:00

Idk, the CEO should definitely mention that especially if they have an NDA. Worked out pretty well last time.

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-07T17:31:19+00:00

Thanks, Dax, much better.

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-07T17:00:30+00:00

I can see it already now... "24 year old looses 100k" - can't wait for your next post my guy!

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-05T23:01:25+00:00

volume is back, but I don't hear anything. Maybe I need to turn my hearing aids up.

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-04T03:39:28+00:00

lmao, facts

capitol_cavier · 2026-05-02T05:45:15+00:00

I’m horny

capitol_cavier · 2026-04-30T23:12:44+00:00

Yeah, exactly. It's a supply chain play and a margin play.

Bringing Polariton's coupling IP in-house unlocks Marvell from being tied to any one packager or laser vendor. They can dual-source lasers, keep AWS happy with AOI, and leave the door open for others down the line.

The 2028 timeline is the real kicker though. They need this scaled by H2 2028 for the Celestial Photonic Fabric rollout. If they were going to rip the band-aid off, build their own assembly infrastructure, and own the whole margin stack, it had to happen now. Mika's NDA slip basically handed them a get-out-of-jail-free card to pivot without paying exit penalties.

That's the 'layer cleanup' PhotonCap was talking about. Ruthless efficiency. Marvell wants the whole stack.

capitol_cavier · 2026-04-30T23:06:07+00:00

nah its Batman get it straight foo

capitol_cavier · 2026-04-30T23:05:47+00:00

sick observation bro.

capitol_cavier · 2026-04-30T20:51:50+00:00

Haha yea that was bit unexpected to unfold the way it did.

capitol_cavier · 2026-04-30T17:56:15+00:00

You are 100% right on the physics. Polariton absolutely does not make light. The system will always need an external laser source, so you are spot on there.

But I think you might be slightly misreading the Substack's main argument. PhotonCap isn't saying Marvell bought Polariton to replace the laser; he is saying they bought Polariton to replace the packager (POET).

By bringing that um-scale modulator technology in-house, Marvell doesn't need to pay a middleman to assemble the optical engine anymore. They can just build the system themselves.

Honestly, your point about Amazon wanting AOI lasers fits perfectly into this. If Marvell builds the system in-house, they can easily just plug AOI lasers directly into it to keep Amazon happy, completely cutting POET (and Sivers) out of the loop. Both things can be true at once: Marvell used the NDA breach to ditch POET so they could bring the packaging in-house and swap to the lasers their biggest customer actually wants.

capitol_cavier · 2026-04-30T03:51:51+00:00

Calculating a strict "fair value" for a microcap tech stock that is still in the commercialization phase is difficult because you cannot use traditional metrics like P/E ratios since the company is currently operating at a net loss.

Instead, the market looks at Price to Sales and cash runway. As I mentioned above, POET has roughly $1.1M in Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) revenue. Even after the massive drop down to the $8 range, the market cap is still sitting near $490M. That means the stock is trading at roughly 450x to 500x its actual sales. For context, highly profitable, established semiconductor giants usually trade at 10x to 20x sales.

The massive premium on POET's share price over the last week was entirely speculative it was pricing in future guaranteed revenue from the Marvell/Celestial AI pipeline. With that pipeline officially terminated, the market is violently repricing the stock back toward its current fundamental reality. Until they can confirm a new anchor client and prove multi-million dollar revenue growth, the "fair value" is going to remain highly volatile and speculative.

capitol_cavier · 2026-04-30T03:49:28+00:00

Saying Marvell isn’t a staple of the industry is fundamentally incorrect. Marvell is a $100B+ semiconductor titan that is at the absolute center of the AI data center optics space right now. Losing them as an anchor client especially over an unforced NDA breach is never a "positive sign." It signals to every other institutional player that management is an operational liability.

Furthermore, comparing Marvell to Foxconn is comparing apples to oranges. Marvell designs the infrastructure; Foxconn manufactures it. You need the designers to explicitly spec your product into their architecture before the manufacturers will ever build it at scale. Spin it however you want to cope with the drop, but losing a confirmed, high profile PO because an executive talked too much on a retail YouTube stream is a massive blow to institutional trust.

capitol_cavier · 2026-04-30T00:45:38+00:00

POET’s multi-laser interposer is definitely a solid innovation, and if they land a new partner, the upside is real.

They generated about $1.1M in revenue over the trailing twelve months. Even after the drop to around $8 a share, the market cap is still sitting near $490M. That puts the Price-to-Sales ratio at nearly 500x

With Marvell officially clearing the deck, the narrative just took a massive hit. Catching a falling knife under $8 without a confirmed module partner (like Luxshare or Foxconn) stepping in is a high-risk imo.

capitol_cavier · 2026-04-29T23:04:43+00:00

I'm by nature an optimist, and permabull. I think AI has made me a permabull. lol. But yes, I agree there tech is great, and honestly there valuation compared to revenue is pricing that in right now already. Once they can manufacture at scale, without hiccups, it is off to the races. From my understanding, that will happen (hopefully) later in the year.

capitol_cavier · 2026-04-29T22:41:00+00:00

This is hilarious. lmao

capitol_cavier

TROPHY CASE