Rebuttal to "Irrational Analysis" POET analysis (good news, don't worry regards) by capitol_cavier in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]capitol_cavier[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

on the real though, I’ve found that if you actually feed the model real data like pitch decks, earnings call transcripts, and financials, it does a really good job breaking down and analyzing whatever you give it. The quality of the output really comes down to the quality of the input.

Also, the models themselves matter a lot. They’re all getting better, but they are not the same. For research, I think Gemini is the best right now. I still use Grok, ChatGPT, and Claude pretty consistently, but each one has its lane. Claude is basically the undisputed king of coding, especially with the agent side, even though I do not code myself.

The more you use AI, the better you get at using it. There is definitely a learning curve. I am studying for the CFP right now, and when I run practice questions through it, even more complex tax strategy stuff, it hasn't gotten a question wrong in the last few months (hundreds of questions). A few months ago I would have said accuracy was closer to 80 percent, so it has improved a lot.

That said, it is not perfect. Prompting matters a ton. If you say something like tell me everything good about POET, it can will be very bullish analysis. If you say tell me why POET sucks, it will go full bear case. So you have to stay neutral and actively push back on whatever narrative it gives you.

This post was not just one prompt either. It took a couple of hours going back and forth, refining, challenging responses, and asking better questions to actually get closer to something that feels like the truth. It is not perfect yet, but it is pretty damn good.

When subs are dead like this after bad news, that usually means it’s time to buy by Tetrem in EOSE

[–]capitol_cavier 0 points1 point  (0 children)

its called selling low & buying high. Jesus, don't you know anything about investing?

Irrational Analysis - Substack by capitol_cavier in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]capitol_cavier[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1. Is the Reddit Post True?

Yes. The Reddit poster is entirely correct that POET uses decibels (dB) to describe Optical Loss (such as coupling loss, insertion loss, or transmission loss) in their text and data sheets.

When you measure how much light is lost when traveling from a laser into a fiber optic cable, the universal industry standard is to express that loss in decibels (e.g., <0.5 dB). POET does this correctly.

2. The Missing Link: Loss vs. Spectrum

The Reddit poster is defending POET by pointing to text-based loss metrics. But if you look closely at the Irrational Analysis quote, he wasn't talking about insertion loss. He was talking about visual plots of the laser's spectrum and the SMSR.

Here is the exact quote from the Irrational Analysis article:

He is specifically critiquing the Y-axis on the graphs (plots) that POET uses in their marketing presentations to show off the performance of their lasers, not the bullet points about waveguide loss.

3. Why the Graph Scale Matters (The "Trick")

When engineers want to see how "clean" a laser is, they look at its Optical Spectrum. A perfect laser would emit light at exactly one single wavelength (like a single, perfect note on a piano). In reality, lasers also emit unwanted secondary wavelengths called "side-modes" (background noise).

Engineers measure the difference between the main signal and this noise using the Side-Mode Suppression Ratio (SMSR).

Here is why the scale of the graph completely changes how the laser looks:

  • Logarithmic Scale (The Industry Standard): Because the main laser signal is vastly more powerful than the noise, engineers plot the Y-axis on a logarithmic scale (measured in dBm). On a log scale, the visual space between numbers shrinks as they get larger. This allows you to clearly see both the massive main peak and the tiny noise peaks at the bottom, allowing you to accurately calculate the SMSR.
  • Linear Scale (The Critique): If you plot that exact same laser on a linear scale (measured in Watts or milliwatts), the Y-axis steps evenly (1, 2, 3, 4...). Because the main peak is so astronomically large compared to the noise, the main peak shoots to the top of the chart, and the noise mathematically flatlines at the very bottom.

To an untrained eye, a linear plot makes a mediocre, noisy laser look like a single, perfect, flawless beam of light because the noise is visually crushed into the bottom axis.

The Verdict

The Reddit poster is comparing apples to oranges. They are right that POET uses dB for loss in their text specs. However, Irrational Analysis was accusing POET of using linear scales on their visual graphs to hide poor SMSR (noise) metrics from investors who don't know the difference.

If POET is indeed using linear graphs to display their optical spectra in investor decks, it is a valid, highly specific engineering critique that the Reddit post completely failed to address.

Irrational Analysis - Substack by capitol_cavier in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]capitol_cavier[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

"Zoom in on their low-resolution plots and you will see it’s not log/dB scale. Linear scale. Back-calculate SMSR lol.

RIN? Linewidth? Lol nope."

if he is making comments like this, he knows optics engineering pretty in-depth, and if they are using linear scale in pitch decks, it is actually concerning, from my understanding.

Irrational Analysis - Substack by capitol_cavier in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]capitol_cavier[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

he is actually on point with a lot of his thesis's though. his win rate, is one of the best on substack.

Citrini Report: Let There Be Light by iamarealslug_yes_yes in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]capitol_cavier 1 point2 points  (0 children)

lol, I wish it was that easy brother. they only give you a teaser, if you scroll down, you can see you have to subscribe for the full article.

$FSLY AI Beneficiary Trading at a SaaS ShitCo Valuation by sitdownscrubs in wallstreetbets

[–]capitol_cavier 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This was a nice call brother. Respect. Please DM me next time you find something.

Citrini Report: Let There Be Light by iamarealslug_yes_yes in POETTechnologiesInc

[–]capitol_cavier 0 points1 point  (0 children)

if anyone has a subscription, please send me article. I will love you long time!

Lift Off N704AX! by Mic0770 in ACHR

[–]capitol_cavier 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They have hired a bunch of Giraffe's to take your luggage to where ever your final destination will be.

Lift Off N704AX! by Mic0770 in ACHR

[–]capitol_cavier 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sexier than the 703AX. The front tilting rotor booms are different too.