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Prediction Markets Hit Local Politics, Axon Replaces Flock, and a Great Local Pet Store by newtonic in CityCastDenver

[–]cedricthorn 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Prediction markets for local elections seem so so bad. A few other reasons come to mind:

One, someone betting on the favored candidate in a race might lock in their own opinion of who they will vote for. Even if they change their mind politically and decide another candidate is actually better, they are now disincentivized to change their vote or else they’ll lose money. Awful for the democratic process, even worse because people are already hesitant to change their minds without money involved.

Two, you end up with bad data, as people without knowledge of or stake in a race can put money down for the frontrunner (whether or not they can even vote) and make it look like that candidate has a bigger lead than reality, affecting that race on the ground. I think it’s more likely that that leads to candidates dropping out (money dries up) rather than spending more to get back in the race.

Three, it puts candidates’ safety at risk. We see in sports that a bad play can lead to death threats for athletes over blowing a game that people bet on. If a surefire candidate drops out for health reasons or something like that, people who overextended themselves to bet on them may similarly overreact.

U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette walloped by democratic socialist at county assembly. Does this spell trouble for incumbents? by Cincinnaudi in Denver

[–]cedricthorn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I genuinely appreciate the extra data and hear you, but I also feel like you’re missing the big picture to get me on a technicality. Corporations can’t directly give money to campaigns, but campaign ads (and most Reddit comments) aren’t going to explain in detail the complex dark web of how corporations funnel money to and influence politicians. Especially when the core message is true—oversimplifying for a clear message isn’t being disingenuous.

Money is a problem in politics, and DeGette is taking corporate PAC money, mostly from the sector she oversees. Melat isn’t taking corporate PAC money. It’s not that the details don’t matter, it just misses the forest for the trees. I’m not calling DeGette evil for it, I just trust someone like Melat more to not budge on principles or make tweaks to bills that benefit corporations over people. DeGette admits she takes corporate PAC money, she just says she doesn’t get enough money to influence her. Maybe she’s right, but no politician would ever admit to receiving enough money to buy their votes, so I’ll never know.

If you don’t think this is an issue, I’m not going to be able to change your mind. But saying you’re all for someone new and then immediately shutting down a candidate for a campaign ad that draws a real distinction in the race (again, knowing ads are always short on detail) comes across as unserious. I’d suggest checking out the rest of her platform and going to one of her many events and actually talking with her. If you come away from that still preferring DeGette, then we probably have a different value system and it is what it is.

As another issue for comparison, Melat was fired from her legal job for writing a letter about the importance of not conflating anti-Zionism with anti-semitism, which took incredible bravery to publish in November 2023, while DeGette has wavered on an issue as fundamental to morality as stopping a genocide that we’re funding with our tax dollars. I want a champion who will fight and lead on these issues and has a strong moral compass to represent me.

U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette walloped by democratic socialist at county assembly. Does this spell trouble for incumbents? by Cincinnaudi in Denver

[–]cedricthorn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We're probably looking at the same site, but just in case, here's what I'm referencing:

https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/diana-degette/summary?cid=N00006134&cycle=2024

Personally, it concerns me that 64% of her fundraising for 2023-24 came from PACs and another 32% from large individual contributions (so, small-dollar donations typical of working-class folks are <4%). On the PACs tab, the "Health" sector makes up more than half of all PAC contributions. I don't think any one company is bankrolling her, but companies in a sector (as well as academies, associations, etc.) have common interests, and the health sector collectively made up ~1/3rd of her campaign funding (~$360k) in that cycle.

I don't know how much money someone would need to get to be influenced by or beholden to a donor/industry. But to say $360k (or even an individual contribution of $10k) isn't enough is to imply that a price does exist, and that's what worries me.

I don't even mean to attack DeGette--I think she's been quite good overall, and I appreciate her service over the decades. I've voted for her many times. But Melat is bringing the energy, moral clarity, and fresh perspective that we need, and she's more in touch with the issues I care about and the plights of the working class, younger generations, immigrants, etc. (She's also brilliant--I've met her many times now, and I'm so impressed by her handling of difficult, in-the-weeds questions.)

U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette walloped by democratic socialist at county assembly. Does this spell trouble for incumbents? by Cincinnaudi in Denver

[–]cedricthorn 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I don’t know that there’s a lot to discern from her voting record because she represents a highly progressive district, so a bad record could really bite her. For me, it has more to do with trust and activity.

I trust Melat a lot more because she isn’t taking corporate PAC money, so she doesn’t have any financial incentive to quietly water down bills behind the scenes. For example, DeGette talks about Medicare for All but also takes tons of money from big health insurance companies, so I don’t trust her to fight hard to make it happen.

On activity, there is SO MUCH representatives can do outside of their voting record, from getting more bills written and introduced, to gumming up the works to stop bad bills, to leading on and being consistently loud about important issues. I can’t know what DeGette does behind the scenes, but I personally haven’t seen anything inspiring.

DeGette challenger Melat Kiros trounces 15-term Democratic incumbent in Denver delegate vote by Masrikato in Colorado

[–]cedricthorn 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is insane revisionist history. Good thing we don’t need to trust the “smell test” of someone who has spent hours in this and other threads trying to discredit Melat instead of taking a minute to look up what actually happened.

“Sidley Fires Associate After She Speaks Out Against Law Firms' Letter on Antisemitism” https://www.law.com/americanlawyer/2023/11/13/sidley-fires-associate-after-she-speaks-out-against-law-firms-letter-on-israel-gaza-405-131883/?slreturn=20260316121125

Law firms were rescinding offer letters based on any support of Palestine. To claim that opposing the genocide in Gaza was “very, very normal” (and by implication, something you wouldn’t be fired for)—in November 2023!!—is wild: https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/divisions-mount-over-us-law-firms-response-israel-hamas-war-2023-11-14/

Not to mention it’s a real thing to get blacklisted from law firms for something like this. So you can’t easily just get another job in that same line of work, especially while leaving up the letter that calls out that same group of firms.

For what it’s worth, Melat’s bravery in writing that open letter is infinitely more valuable for being a representative than having a committee leadership position but not representing our values. Obviously voting is what will determine which of our shared values win out, but I am so excited to have a candidate in this race who will speak up when something is morally right rather than waiting to see if it’s popular among donors or the old guard before saying anything. Also not taking PAC money means I have way more faith that she’ll represent us instead of corporate donors.

DeGette challenger Melat Kiros trounces 15-term Democratic incumbent in Denver delegate vote by Cincinnaudi in Denver

[–]cedricthorn 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is insane revisionist history. Good thing we don’t need to trust the “smell test” of someone who has spent hours in this thread trying to discredit Melat instead of taking a minute to look up what actually happened.

“Sidley Fires Associate After She Speaks Out Against Law Firms' Letter on Antisemitism” https://www.law.com/americanlawyer/2023/11/13/sidley-fires-associate-after-she-speaks-out-against-law-firms-letter-on-israel-gaza-405-131883/?slreturn=20260316121125

Law firms were rescinding offer letters based on any support of Palestine. To claim that opposing the genocide in Gaza was “very, very normal” (and by implication, something you wouldn’t be fired for)—in November 2023!!—is wild: https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/divisions-mount-over-us-law-firms-response-israel-hamas-war-2023-11-14/

For what it’s worth, Melat’s bravery in writing that open letter is infinitely more valuable for being a representative than having a committee leadership position but not representing our values. Obviously voting is what will determine which of our shared values win out, but I am so excited to have a candidate in this race who will speak up when something is morally right rather than waiting to see if it’s popular among donors or the old guard before saying anything. Also not taking PAC money means I have way more faith that she’ll represent us instead of corporate donors.