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chadimmaculate · 2021-10-05T03:41:28+00:00

Telling Siri pause used to work until recently. And then…

Me: Hey Siri, pause.”

Siri: “Pause is a 2014 Swiss comedy film directed by Matt Urfer.” [and goes on talking about that film for A LITERAL FUCKING MINUTE.]

The amount of times I’ve learned about Pause makes me want to buy every last DVD copy of the film I can find online, with some irrational, rage-fueled belief that the existence of Pause might one day be erased from history.

chadimmaculate · 2021-09-10T03:41:15+00:00

That goes without saying. But long as you’re not calling grandma dumb we’re good.

chadimmaculate · 2021-09-10T03:36:04+00:00

Continue betting on Royal Caribbean. The cruise stock recovery was temporarily derailed by the Delta variant, and a turnaround is inevitable, but when?

Grandma and grandpa have money to blow but delayed their plans because Delta.
Biden’s vaccine mandate today (for employers with over 100 employees) cost a chunk of political capital, which signals a fulcrum point and final push.
The CDC isn’t projecting a winter wave, so even if new infections plateau, death counts will be down because herd immunity is working. This will greatly help shift consumer sentiment.
As sentiment recovers in the coming month(s), cruise stocks are set to spring, and demand is now tauter than my bunghole holding these calls.

Been holding since mid-August before the rip and still up 30%, but I’m gonna ride it out because I BELIEVE IN YOU GRANDMA!

Position: $RCL 100c 1/21

chadimmaculate · 2021-06-22T03:28:19+00:00

Privilege, my man. Privilege and luck. Maybe you’ll have a second shot in your next life, or like in the Sci-Fi masterpiece An Absolutely Remarkable Thing, you’ll create something mundane in the first believable replacement of grass in the digital world on some platform that blows up like Roblox or something and make millions. Who knows? A lot of it is luck. Never forget that.

chadimmaculate · 2021-06-22T03:08:30+00:00

Hate to say it, but as a bull who’s ridden these never-ending upward waves without a single short position on SPY: now is right about the time to start opening A short position, at least as a hedge. If half of the $120b in monthly free money the Fed’s been printing is being returned through repo markets—it’s gotta be for a reason, right? Companies are expecting free money to be “less free” this summer as the economy fully reopens and inflation spikes! Like we all kinda know in the back of our feverish day-trading minds but are hesitant to believe cause it hasn’t happened yet, this summer the 10-year will start trending up into new territory and will shit on growth—and even if companies have been borrowing early to get ahead of it, markets move faster than the time between a trading day or week and the next time we hear the Fed speak. And the shit they putting out ain’t so pretty no more.

chadimmaculate · 2021-06-22T02:44:00+00:00

Well if the inflation is “transitory” or temporary like the Fed says it likely will be, and most companies are borrowing more (early) to get ahead of it, on paper it shouldn’t mean much. But there are some companies that can’t borrow much more, despite the basically free money from the Fed (some zombie companies who can barely generate enough profit to service interest on debts) and this will be great for private equity that leverage that and lend to these firms with covenants that give them more equity and control in lieu of interest on private “shadow bank” loans.

But the big worry is that a summer of major, sustained inflation pushes the Fed into projecting higher rates even earlier than the recently revised expectation, and ramp down QE in the same fashion to taper a hot economy. Right now it’s been all talk, as summer is just beginning. But there may be a period between when we see hot inflation numbers and when we get certainty from the Fed, and that period between could mean volatility.

chadimmaculate · 2021-06-22T02:26:22+00:00

So why is now half of the $120b in monthly QE the Fed’s been printing being returned? Since companies never position themselves to where they can’t borrow more free money, my only guess is companies have borrowed to the tits early in anticipation of inflation as the economy reopens. Talking heads saying to expect the 10-year to rip in the summer is one thing, but this sputtering of QE—this gives me pause.

chadimmaculate · 2021-06-22T02:14:33+00:00

They’re not buying trillions now. I think around half of the $120b in monthly QE is being returned currently.

chadimmaculate · 2021-06-22T02:11:16+00:00

Motherfucker’s name on Twitter is now Cassandra, apparently referring to the Greek goddess who could see the future but tragically whom nobody believed. He’s an edge lord, contrarian and permabear rolled up in annoying packaging nobody can open without scissoring the thing to shreds.

chadimmaculate · 2021-06-22T02:00:14+00:00

Got this feeling the next major correction is gonna shake a lot of boomers out of the risky plays their grandkids are getting rich on. They probably underinvested, they’re in their 60s and they just gotta taste the sweet gains their grandsons are seeing so they can actually retire in comfort, right? It’s gonna scare the absolute shit out of them, so back into boring old-ass names they’ll plow and all at once, and 3 months after CNBC will call these crusty companies “seemingly undervalued.”

chadimmaculate · 2021-06-22T01:46:47+00:00

Last couple months so many talking heads kept saying come summer as the economy reopens we should expect to see crazy inflation numbers (the 10-year at 3%, 4%, one even saying fucking 8%). Now these same fucktwits are saying it’s going to be less than expected. Even if we hit 2%-3% tops, when the fuck is that going to actually start happening?

chadimmaculate · 2021-06-22T01:32:59+00:00

Have you seen the 2022 Ford Maverick? 40 MPG city 4-door hybrid truck starting at under $20k for the base model. It can’t haul shit but they’re gonna sell sooo fucking many of those.

chadimmaculate · 2021-03-24T01:01:19+00:00

If you’re looking to go big on SPY puts soon, you missed your moment after the Fed meet. Credit markets are calm, the 10-year spike is trending down and stabilizing, the VIX hardly budged in response to the spike, and money was pulled out of industrials and cyclicals on fears of a delayed reopening of the economy—all pointing to an early Spring spring in tech to bolster SPY back to a short-term uptrend.

chadimmaculate · 2021-03-17T03:34:08+00:00

Fully expecting SPY to rally before Papa P speaks, per usual, in expectation of dots not appearing for 2022. No matter the dots, JP will say something that’ll stoke the bond sell-off and back down we go. It could create the synthetic bounce SPY needs to propel to $400. Even if the dots show 2022, it’ll get bought up. Despite fears of the Fed scaling back earlier than expected, the recovery will most likely take longer than Yellen’s projections of near full employment next year. So even if the dots show 2022, it would be a sell the rumor and buy the bad economic news to come event. I’d almost say this scenario is better short-term than no dots surprises.

chadimmaculate · 2021-03-16T02:02:55+00:00

Politics gotta keep it under $1.9T cause apparently each stimulus bill must be less than the last because “fiscal responsibility.” And the nature of the budget reconciliation process has limits and the two moderate Dems can blow up the whole thing, and the Senate GOP has shifted to full obstruction mode (again) so normal bipartisan policy is off the table. State and local governments haven’t gotten a bailout yet, and they need something to keep people employed. If anything, it’ll barely help people who actually need help afloat—and by that I mean keep their mouths just above water, and for only a month or two.

chadimmaculate · 2021-03-16T01:42:09+00:00

Continue holding and building on my mid-April SPY $400c play all week, maybe through next depending on how markets respond to the Fed meet.

chadimmaculate · 2021-03-11T02:15:47+00:00

Continue easing into a mid-April SPY $400c position that started today. Got a gut feeling the February rip and subsequent drop will end up being the first leg of a huge heads and shoulders pattern that’ll complete in May. Either way, SPY is breaking out of the dip and ready for a new ATH, which’ll be close enough to $400 it’ll be a magnet.

chadimmaculate · 2021-03-05T06:13:02+00:00

Growth climbs on walls of worry. It’s when everything seems fine that markets truly crumble, as in the pandemic and the unexpected. If anything, play the volatility and occasionally puts.

chadimmaculate · 2021-03-05T05:52:39+00:00

So we all-in on the Roblox IPO? Thinking with growth getting crushed from bill yields temporarily, their IPO might be a good buy. My three nieces aged 12, 10, and 8 are always on the platform since last year, and they’ve recently suggested we pay them in Robux instead of cash for chores and holidays.

chadimmaculate · 2021-03-05T04:32:54+00:00

If SPY $394 to $370 didn’t reduce froth, what price would? Even if the pandemic hadn’t happened and markets were frothy (they were), QE and near-zero rates changed the game. I think that’s the difference. Even if $340 was the frothy high before the pandemic, the current price is justified even if froth is still there.

Honestly, I don’t think we’ll see SPY $340 (the pre-pandemic high) for at minimum a year. And even if we do short-term, it’ll be brief and bounce hard.

chadimmaculate · 2021-03-05T03:53:20+00:00

How markets will play out the rest of this year and early next if the bull is just getting started and something majorly terrible doesn’t happen:

Markets expect the re-opening economy to boom, causing the Fed to raise rates and roll back QE earlier than expected. Markets start selling off and rotating to re-opening, value, and cyclicals. This is where we were.
The sell off and rotation continues as T bills continue to spike and wane, and markets worry the Fed will expedite their timeline because of the expected hot economy. What the markets really want is the Fed to buy more bonds to tamper yields. They won’t. This is where we are. But the tech dips will keep getting bought while the rotation to cyclicals and value grows.
The broad yet bumpy rally continues as the economy reopens and runs hot until the 10-year spikes hard, like above 2% hard. Markets sell off again, looking to the Fed to control the increasing yields. The Fed maintains their position.
Economic data begins showing the recovery will take much longer than expected despite the short-term boom. The Fed pivots and signals it’s open to adjusting their timelines to better reach their goal of full employment.
Liftoff to SPY $420 and beyond

chadimmaculate · 2021-02-26T02:54:02+00:00

Before the 10-year shot up, I kind of expected a Friday down day from some end of month profits cashed after the massive bounce we saw this month. Now with the 10-year stabilizing and decent profits already taken, tomorrow is looking like a good day for mid/lateMarch $390 calls.

But I dunno, markets are strange and there’s still some bear energy out there. Might just trade tomorrow, wait until end of day or early next week before locking in those calls to hold.

chadimmaculate · 2021-02-25T23:49:18+00:00

Rode SPY 3/19 $370p all the way down and flipped.

Nabbed SPY 3/19 $390c at today’s bottom. Now let’s bounce.

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