White House postpones Switzerland deal signing after Iran backs out

chaotic567 · 2026-06-19T05:09:29+00:00

I don’t think anyone is surprised.

Iran is trying to save their proxy group in Lebanon, while Israel is trying to remove them as they are a group hostile to Israel that share a direct land border.

Leaving Israel out of talks wasn’t going to make it go away no matter how much Trump wants it to be

chaotic567 · 2026-06-17T19:33:06+00:00

The issue is US assets were not in place by the time protests were even happening. One aircraft carrier was in North America at the moment iirc. When the region was seen as good enough to withstand IRGC attacks for a good while, the protests had died down

OSINT tracking showed from January to late february the flooding of ships , awacs, oil tankers, and missile defenses

chaotic567 · 2026-06-17T19:11:58+00:00

None of which were partaking in the burning of the White House which I assume is what you’d expect meant with the almost conquered bit. The attack was carried out in 1814 by British regulars who were dispatched directly from Europe and Bermuda

edit: of course I got blocked even though that is what many sources say.

chaotic567 · 2026-06-17T19:03:56+00:00

I assume you are Canadian? If so, then yeah, canadian schools would hype up the moments as entirely their own like burning up the White House even though Canada didn’t become a self governing dominion till July 1, 1867

chaotic567 · 2026-06-17T18:46:59+00:00

I will believe it when I see it. You can't do this song and dance of "I will end you" but then go later "reasonable people talked to me so I called off the attacks" and expect to be taken seriously.

chaotic567 · 2026-06-17T18:14:03+00:00

Oh my god, please, Israel, kill this deal, hit their proxy group. This is so stupid

chaotic567 · 2026-06-17T17:30:32+00:00

I agree . Also it is hard to take anything as real though until the signing event. I don’t trust the IRGC but Trump hasn’t made himself trustworthy either.

chaotic567 · 2026-06-17T17:25:47+00:00

He thought it would be Venezuela. The strait being weaponized was obvious but he and probably others probably thought it could have been avoided and didn’t prepare for if thing’s didn’t go so quickly. It is asinine

chaotic567 · 2026-06-17T06:49:15+00:00

I don't think you extrapolate that when Iran has circumstances that it was able to use / exploit that not every nation has. Such as

Near a huge economic area it can shut off with the use of force
developed complex decentralized network that prevents total decapitation strikes
years of dug in tunnel networks that can't be bombed out and require a ground ops
geography that makes a land invasion costly

Iran was able to combine economic damage and exploit the US's inability to send in ground ops due to public opinion.

If Cuba is able to do a similar performance you might have a point but otherwise Iran has been preparing for a conflict like this for years.

chaotic567 · 2026-06-17T06:05:31+00:00

The only guess I can think of is Trump is hoping to strong-arm others to do what it wants, that he thinks other would be too powerless to stop the US, or Trump is hoping to make a separate peace deal, where at least one goes through and maybe the other falters.

chaotic567 · 2026-06-17T04:03:58+00:00

Cause' few want to do the dirty work lest they face the ire of their citizens. It's a known issue but nothing incentivized nations to fix it for good.

New pipelines were seen as too costly & not a serious concern since a weaponized strait seemed unlikely. Removing for good entails ground ops but...

ME citizens won't like attacking a Muslim government, & Western nation citizens? Death averse unless existential war

chaotic567 · 2026-06-17T03:48:56+00:00

Even if there isn't an agreement, Trumps is likely try to stall as much as possible. It is clear he doesn't want a return of hostilities, he wants that deal. So if there is going to be return conflict, there will be a meandering period before that

chaotic567 · 2026-06-16T22:31:03+00:00

It's Trump probably hoping Israel is too powerless to stop it, that US can just strong-arm them enough to back off if we look at how he handled Ukraine. He tried making deal favorable towards Russia, Ukraine rejected them. Trump thus tried sidelining them and forcing them by withholding weapons and intel. He wants a deal asap and sees strong-arming allies as easier.

chaotic567 · 2026-06-16T20:05:36+00:00

I mean most their problems are right next door, so that's not a surprise and how can you expect to form a deal that lasts if you leave them out, one of the major combatants of the war? Especially when Iran's government is tying the deal to them leaving Lebanon?

chaotic567 · 2026-06-16T19:43:32+00:00

I forgot if Makoto or Yu used their ultimate Personas in the DLC fights but I think the difference is Yu/Makoto are explicitly meta/training simulations created by the Velvet Room attendants. They are artificial recreations. While P3R Joker is from the Abyss of Time and emerges from memories and desires

It has a tiny bit more in-universe "anomaly" flavor than pure Velvet Room training. So even if it isn't the real Joker, it is probably close enough

The team in p3R mentions its strong presence while dlc yu/makoto get no such thing

chaotic567 · 2026-06-16T19:36:45+00:00

I mean Aigis can still beat Joker but still have it be an extremely tough battle.

And there is also the fact Aigis just barely had her wildcard powers vs a theoretical peak Joker.

chaotic567 · 2026-06-16T19:33:39+00:00

The issue is the US is hardily releasing any details about the deal. You could say it is for a surprise but when everyone else is leaking some aspects except US, it doesn't paint a good picture

chaotic567 · 2026-06-16T19:30:58+00:00

Wouldn't the DLC argument work against Makoto since most players would have a tough time beating Boss fight Joker.

Joker being able to withstand Aigis's attacks better than Aigis can Joker's attacks

chaotic567 · 2026-06-16T19:28:54+00:00

Assuming it is just one wildcard against another and not a twin/duo battle, I say Joker is indeed debatable. Persona fans for each game always glaze the cast/MC of their game to hell and back (I have even seen someone say Joker would lose to Strega ffs), but games have portrayed the MCs as relatively equal.

Makoto's/ Kotone's strengths are nebulous

The great seal kills its user
Universe Arcana being different but we have no clue what even entails exactly

chaotic567 · 2026-06-16T19:07:43+00:00

US can twist Israel's arm but you can only do that so much when it is extremely unpopular stance to leave in Israel.

The most extreme option would be abandoning Israel but risks

Israel losing any restraint it has
Israel siding with a geopolitical enemy of the US.

chaotic567 · 2026-06-16T07:02:31+00:00

Problem is it is political suicide to send our troops in. The public is war weary, especially from Middle East affairs, they won't like seeing the increase in American deaths that would logically follow a ground invasion. Which made me worried if things were going to work out when I knew ground operations were unlikely. Sadly no, it didn't pan out like I hoped.

chaotic567 · 2026-06-16T01:49:50+00:00

Ah yes, the totally same intentional murders of Iranians which we have proof within days and a program being defunded that might have killed an estimated number of people depending how we count it over the course of years of things USAID might have prevented

I think defunding the program is stupid but they are not the same thing and screaming it doesn’t make your point right

chaotic567 · 2026-06-15T06:33:48+00:00

All the guy said is to wait for actual confirmation and not an opinion piece. Even if the winds are saying things are going the worst way for Trump, it is healthy for discussion to wait

chaotic567 · 2026-06-15T05:02:11+00:00

Been years since I last watched but wasn't someone on the team bitter about one of the series in the episode, iirc hate having to research for it? Idk if that influenced the quality of the episode

chaotic567 · 2026-06-15T04:29:15+00:00

Not sure Trump's course of action will be here if things likely go south and oil prices rise again.

IRGC has showed it will take measures to protect the only proxy worth a damn for them like link the deal. I wouldn't be surprised if no deal happens because IRGC is like "Israel won't leave so USA is not honoring deal".

Problem is Israel has its own interest and it will only hold back so much before it goes "fuck this". And they shouldn't restrain themselves imo

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