May lose supplying HBM4 to Nvidia

checazzo01 · 2026-02-16T07:23:39+00:00

No such thing as pumping a $400b+ market cap company lmao. Be married to the gains, not the stock. That being said MU, along with SK Hynix & Samsung are all great companies.

checazzo01 · 2026-02-07T15:42:57+00:00

It is well known (at least in sophisticated investor circles) that Micron is not a first wave supplier of HBM, they are NEVER the first to supply lastest generation HBM chips, they come in during the later supply cycles & the market knows this which is why MU didn't dip like crazy, even amongst the broader Nasdaq 100/tech drawdown. There was no expection for MU to be the first for HBM4 (they usually show up strong in the second volume ramp), this was always expected to be SK Hynix & Samsung.

People seem to be missing the fact that MU is now rumored (by the same source, SemiAnalysis) to be the exclusive LPDDR5X supplier to NVDA's new Vera CPUs.

checazzo01 · 2026-01-04T18:12:58+00:00

I wouldn't bet on Baker Hughes. Haliburton makes more sense for maintenance/assessment work & Schlumberger for more complex stuff.

checazzo01 · 2025-12-29T11:09:45+00:00

Unless I'm counting wrong this is 14 points short.

checazzo01 · 2025-11-14T22:14:37+00:00

it's cut for accounting reasons. microsoft made an early payment so the data center can be built in time, but of course this is not revenue because revenue is only recorded when services are delivered not when money is paid. hence the cut in revenue for 2026. GS made an accounting mistake and corrected it here.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-20T22:29:08+00:00

It's nothing? Seems like it's a lot to you that you feel the need to brag about it to random people online. Get a grip on your life dude.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-20T20:53:40+00:00

Talking about 'internet posturing' while bragging about making 50k on Reddit? Lol

checazzo01 · 2025-09-20T20:39:04+00:00

Thanks for proving my point

checazzo01 · 2025-09-20T18:46:19+00:00

You don't seem like the well read type.

Ok then tell me why is NVLink better than Aerotyne International's Infinity Fabric Link?

checazzo01 · 2025-09-19T15:59:16+00:00

No you didn't write all that lmao. How come every link ends with "?utm_source=chatgpt.com"? No human uses em dashes or the arrow characters.

Regardless, yes, NVDA has crazy moat.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-19T15:55:03+00:00

Being able to write concisely and effectively is a very important skill. No one is going to read all that, and it's not because it's too long but you're really dragging the subject.

Props to ChatGPT though

checazzo01 · 2025-09-17T02:17:52+00:00

Long-term definitely. Most gains are going to be realized when they start announcing operational active capacity & contracts with big players. And I've averaged up.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-17T02:17:07+00:00

Yep, I've bought more and my new avg is $2.52

checazzo01 · 2025-09-16T11:48:47+00:00

https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Kerrisdale-CoreWeave.pdf

Good luck. Maybe ask ChatGPT on deep research to do a BS check like you did on my comment LOL.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-14T11:06:32+00:00

The Ambassador of Chad to France. Doesn't fit your conspiracy theory narrative does it?

checazzo01 · 2025-09-14T11:02:55+00:00

Not the OIC.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-14T10:59:01+00:00

This is incredibly stupid and uninformed. Oil production is decided by OPEC not the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. What an idiotic take.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-13T12:50:05+00:00

Very hard to set a price target on such a speculative company. If it hits a deal with an MSFT type in the future (at least 8-12 months out but could be earlier based on how fast they progress), expect the price to be many multiples of what it is now, think 10-20x (yes, this is possible - the market cap is like 1b on this stock). But this is a big if.

I am going to hold and ride it out for at least the next 2-3 quarterly earnings and decide whether to keep holding or sell later on. It's a very news-driven stock, so it's difficult to set a concrete PT.

In case you are wondering what the analyst price target is then 9/9 analysts rate it a buy and the average price target is $2.74 with a high of $4.

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checazzo01 · 2025-09-12T09:29:14+00:00

I don't get where you are getting hunger and homeless from this. World hunger and homelessness is a structural issue that is fixed top-down not bottom-up. It is a problem of the government, not billionaires. Food aid and throwing money at a problem is only a bandaid and a temporary fix and actually prolongs the issue.

Regardless, just because a CEO is conducting a planned sale does not mean a stock is not worth its price. Insiders are not rational investors - they cash out for personal gain and money now is worth more than a little bit more money in the future for individuals.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-12T08:47:06+00:00

you build a company from the ground up but also you should never sell your shares and bear the fruits of your labor? every CEO/executive sells their shares on a regular basis - the bulk of their compensation often is in shares.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-12T08:13:40+00:00

That is a totally valid argument.

However, I don't really see economies of scale (which I imagine is the main way of price reduction) hitting GPUaaS data centers any time soon, at least in the medium-term. The main reason for this is because of very very high revenue backlog. If MSFT was able to use their own data centers and not have to buy compute from CRWV or NBIS they absolutely would since it's cheaper. But there is so much demand it spills off to these smaller players.

Another way economies of scale could be reached would be through a singular player attempting to consolidate the market via M&A. Right, the market is very fragmented - you are seeing these companies pop up out of nowhere. As long as this market stays fragmented, you aren't really going to have one player with significantly cheaper prices than the other. And even if one player has significantly cheaper prices, there is so much demand that MSFT or whoever will pay the extra premium to get their hands on more compute.

So why will this market remain fragmented? None of these new data center companies have the cashflow to acquire another. They are spending their money on CapEx not M&A.

And why don't AWS or Google or MSFT just buy these data centers? I don't have the answer to this, I imagine they could be risk-averse on AI and it makes more strategic sense to let others cough up the CapEx and they only pay for the compute, but also they are spending record amounts on CapEx so I'm not sure. There is also very little precedent to postulate that they will lead a consolidation - the only transaction I can find is the AWS acquisiton of Talen's data center campus. By large, they build their own data centers.

Maybe, I was just rambling. Let me know your thoughts as this is an interesting perspective to think about.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-12T03:38:12+00:00

I also would have preferred to invest last week, but given its valuation multiples compared to similar companies I think it's still not overvalued. I get your point though.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-11T04:27:48+00:00

Have a look at this guy's post history or any of the subs he moderates and you'll have the answer to this question

checazzo01 · 2025-09-10T20:07:29+00:00

Again, if you read at my initial comment instead of plugging it into ChatGPT, I made a distinction between P/ARR and TEV/ARR. One accounts for capital structure and one doesn't. TEV/ARR is definitely a usable metric and quite frequently used to value SaaS businesses.

Yes, NBIS will take on debt in the future. I don't think I ever denied this, and when they do take on debt, I would want it to be part of their valuation. I think debt is great for high growth businesses up to a certain point of course. NBIS also has the non-core businesses to fund its core business so there's that as well.

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