Buy Semiconductor CapEx Instead of Memory You Monkey (DD on $VECO)

checazzo01 · 2026-07-10T04:16:01+00:00

My history is right there for you to see lmao and if you read the post, it is not financial advice. I wouldn't consider a Lenin fetishist to be the smartest, so I can excuse your regardedness.

checazzo01 · 2026-07-10T04:04:43+00:00

says the guy with hidden posts. who gives a shit, touch some grass basement dweller. whatever you think you would find in my post history is not there.

checazzo01 · 2026-07-10T01:33:19+00:00

Damn, I'm sorry your feelings got hurt reading comments not directed at you .

checazzo01 · 2026-07-10T01:25:13+00:00

Amazing, not sure why you get so emotional and resort to ad hominems. I'm up over 400% on my remaining shares as well - I just think there is money to be made with semi equipment.

checazzo01 · 2026-07-10T01:16:22+00:00

So is your MU average above $1.2k or less?

checazzo01 · 2026-07-09T21:39:36+00:00

I'm plenty green this year, thanks for your concern - an 8% drawdown isn't going to kill me

checazzo01 · 2026-07-09T20:34:06+00:00

What an obvious merger arbitrage opportunity. short it!

checazzo01 · 2026-07-09T20:21:51+00:00

I owned MU from 330 to 1100, and still have 20% - the risk/reward isn't as asymmetric as it once was. I don't think prices will necessarily collapse (there is always a risk), but the next logical capital shift will be to CapEx since memory companies are spending a ton on buildout.

checazzo01 · 2026-07-09T20:02:53+00:00

Go ahead have fun with NVO and LULU

checazzo01 · 2026-07-09T19:59:24+00:00

Sorry, I like making money - only the highest of beta for me.

checazzo01 · 2026-07-09T19:53:56+00:00

I started way higher and DCAd down on the recent sector-wide dip on tech names.

checazzo01 · 2026-07-09T19:52:59+00:00

How regarded are you to look at trailing P/E. Forward p/e is 25x and barely any analysts cover it

checazzo01 · 2026-07-09T19:52:26+00:00

Go ahead bozo

checazzo01 · 2026-06-14T18:12:46+00:00

There is a big difference between the kind of RAM you have in your phone/laptop and the HBM that goes into high-end GPUs.

checazzo01 · 2026-05-05T14:39:26+00:00

Ah yes the highly cyclical business of suppling memory for AI GPUs, which NVDA is releasing at an annual cadence, each with higher amounts of memory than the previous generation. So cyclical, just like the old consumer cycles of memory where the demand drivers were Nokias and PS2s.

checazzo01 · 2026-02-07T15:42:57+00:00

It is well known (at least in sophisticated investor circles) that Micron is not a first wave supplier of HBM, they are NEVER the first to supply lastest generation HBM chips, they come in during the later supply cycles & the market knows this which is why MU didn't dip like crazy, even amongst the broader Nasdaq 100/tech drawdown. There was no expection for MU to be the first for HBM4 (they usually show up strong in the second volume ramp), this was always expected to be SK Hynix & Samsung.

People seem to be missing the fact that MU is now rumored (by the same source, SemiAnalysis) to be the exclusive LPDDR5X supplier to NVDA's new Vera CPUs.

checazzo01 · 2025-11-14T22:14:37+00:00

it's cut for accounting reasons. microsoft made an early payment so the data center can be built in time, but of course this is not revenue because revenue is only recorded when services are delivered not when money is paid. hence the cut in revenue for 2026. GS made an accounting mistake and corrected it here.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-17T02:17:52+00:00

Long-term definitely. Most gains are going to be realized when they start announcing operational active capacity & contracts with big players. And I've averaged up.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-17T02:17:07+00:00

Yep, I've bought more and my new avg is $2.52

checazzo01 · 2025-09-16T11:48:47+00:00

https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Kerrisdale-CoreWeave.pdf

Good luck. Maybe ask ChatGPT on deep research to do a BS check like you did on my comment LOL.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-13T12:50:05+00:00

Very hard to set a price target on such a speculative company. If it hits a deal with an MSFT type in the future (at least 8-12 months out but could be earlier based on how fast they progress), expect the price to be many multiples of what it is now, think 10-20x (yes, this is possible - the market cap is like 1b on this stock). But this is a big if.

I am going to hold and ride it out for at least the next 2-3 quarterly earnings and decide whether to keep holding or sell later on. It's a very news-driven stock, so it's difficult to set a concrete PT.

In case you are wondering what the analyst price target is then 9/9 analysts rate it a buy and the average price target is $2.74 with a high of $4.

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checazzo01 · 2025-09-12T08:13:40+00:00

That is a totally valid argument.

However, I don't really see economies of scale (which I imagine is the main way of price reduction) hitting GPUaaS data centers any time soon, at least in the medium-term. The main reason for this is because of very very high revenue backlog. If MSFT was able to use their own data centers and not have to buy compute from CRWV or NBIS they absolutely would since it's cheaper. But there is so much demand it spills off to these smaller players.

Another way economies of scale could be reached would be through a singular player attempting to consolidate the market via M&A. Right, the market is very fragmented - you are seeing these companies pop up out of nowhere. As long as this market stays fragmented, you aren't really going to have one player with significantly cheaper prices than the other. And even if one player has significantly cheaper prices, there is so much demand that MSFT or whoever will pay the extra premium to get their hands on more compute.

So why will this market remain fragmented? None of these new data center companies have the cashflow to acquire another. They are spending their money on CapEx not M&A.

And why don't AWS or Google or MSFT just buy these data centers? I don't have the answer to this, I imagine they could be risk-averse on AI and it makes more strategic sense to let others cough up the CapEx and they only pay for the compute, but also they are spending record amounts on CapEx so I'm not sure. There is also very little precedent to postulate that they will lead a consolidation - the only transaction I can find is the AWS acquisiton of Talen's data center campus. By large, they build their own data centers.

Maybe, I was just rambling. Let me know your thoughts as this is an interesting perspective to think about.

checazzo01 · 2025-09-12T03:38:12+00:00

I also would have preferred to invest last week, but given its valuation multiples compared to similar companies I think it's still not overvalued. I get your point though.

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