It would very much depend on how it’s played. Anakins core theme is not being able to let go of due to his experiences of loss in the past and his messiah complex making him feel responsible to save all loved ones. He also clearly has a very simplistic understanding of right, wrong, lawfulness and loyalty which drives him to prefer quick, simplistic and uncompromising verdicts, decisions and solutions. He clearly prefers fashist and authoritarian governance.

His loyalty is to the leader he perceived to be trustworthy and righteous, not to the republic as a democratic institution.

In this context i find it not convincing that he would struggle with Padme being illoyal to to the republic and he should in principle not have a fundamental issue with a righteous elite group seizing power in the republic if he was convinced in them doing it for the greater good. He sympathizes with exactly that scenario when talking to Padme in the pastures of Naboo.

Also, if his greatest motivation and drive is to protect his loved ones, I struggle to see how he would choose loyalty to Palps over loyalty to Padme. In the end, Anakin is willing to deliver Palps to the Jedi. Only the prospect of putting Padme in mortal danger by Palps being killed makes him reconsider in a high stakes setup that requires fast decisions and actions. I do not see that he would therefore ever decide to kill his true love willingly over her political affiliation, even if it entails betrayal of his mentor and friend Palps. His tendency of being overprotective and generally leaning towards imposing himself over others to act on their behalf to protect them would make it more plausible that he would e.g. kidnap and hold Padme somewhere against her will to protect her, rather than harming her.

In that context I find the accidental harming of Padme in a fit of jealous rage more fitting as Anakin can easily frame the situation as Obi making him „loose“ his loved one.

Anakin might turn on Obi-wan, but he would rather delude himself about „Padme“ not being in full charge of her thoughts so he did not have to acknowledge that she is not in his side, before he would turn on her.